Behavior of the cosmic ray density during the initial phase of the Forbush effect

Variations in the cosmic ray density during the initial phase of the Forbush effect during the first hours after the arrival of the interplanetary shock wave have been studied with the use of data on variations in the cosmic ray density with a rigidity of 10 GV obtained by the global survey method by the world network of neutron monitors in 1957?2012. It is found that behavior of this parameter after the arrival of the shock wave demonstrates high variability. A small (~1/5 of total number), though distinct, group of Forbush effects, in which the density of the cosmic ray increases (not decreases) after the arrival of the shock wave, is defined. As a whole, the initial variation in cosmic ray density is correlated with the Forbush effect magnitude and the strength of the associated geomagnetic disturbance.     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Decay of a highly eccentric satellite

The re-entry phase of a highly eccentric satellite is discussed. Numerical simulations allowing the prediction of the exact date of re-entry of a highly eccentric satellite are exposed.It is shown that under very particular circumstances the life of the satellite can be extended by a few days. The number of final revolutions of the rapidly contracting orbit depends critically on the air density between 70 km and 100 km.Re-entry of the European scientific satellite HEOS-1 predicted for 28 October, 1975 is near such a situation.     

Über den Eisengehalt von Alumosilikaten aus Quarzknauern

Zusammenfassung Der Eisengehalt von Andalusiten und Disthenen aus Quarzknauern im Gebiet des Ötztaler—Stubaier Altkristallins wurde regional untersucht. Der Gehalt and Gesamteisen in primären Disthen liegt zwischen 0,17 und 0,22 Gew.% Fe₂O₃, während primäre Andalusite zwischen 0,26 und 1,93 Gew.% Fe₂O₃ schwanken. Dieser Unterschied in den Andalusiten wird auf ein wechselndes Angebot von Fe₂O₃ aus dem Nachbargestein der Knauern zurückgeführt.Ein Zusammenhang zwischen dem Eisengehalt der Andalusite und den verschiedenen Umwandlungsstadien Andalusit—Disthen konnte nicht nachgewiesen werden.

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On the iron content of alumosilicates in quartz nodules

Summary A determination of the regional distribution of the ironcontent of andalusites and kyanites in quartz-segregations of the Oetztal—Stubai crystalline complex gave values of 0.17–0.22% for the total iron in primary kyanite and 0.26–1.93% in andalusite. This difference is probably due to a variation in the Fe₂O₃-content in the country rocks of the quartz veins. No relationship between the iron-content in andalusite and the different stages of transformation from andalusite to kyanite could be established.

     

Ecological-geochemical assessment of the state of the Volga source of water supply to Moscow

Long-term observational data (1992?C2009) on heavy metal (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni, V, Mo, Co, Fe, and Mn) content of different links in the Ivankovo Reservoir ecosystem are used to consider the regularities in the distribution and behavior of heavy metals in the system anthropogenic pollution sources-reservoir and its drainage area, thus enabling the assessment of the pollution level of the Volga Source of water supply to Moscow.     

Multicollinearity and correlation among local regression coefficients in geographically weighted regression

Present methodological research on geographically weighted regression (GWR) focuses primarily on extensions of the basic GWR model, while ignoring well-established diagnostics tests commonly used in standard global regression analysis. This paper investigates multicollinearity issues surrounding the local GWR coefficients at a single location and the overall correlation between GWR coefficients associated with two different exogenous variables. Results indicate that the local regression coefficients are potentially collinear even if the underlying exogenous variables in the data generating process are uncorrelated. Based on these findings, applied GWR research should practice caution in substantively interpreting the spatial patterns of local GWR coefficients. An empirical disease-mapping example is used to motivate the GWR multicollinearity problem. Controlled experiments are performed to systematically explore coefficient dependency issues in GWR. These experiments specify global models that use eigenvectors from a spatial link matrix as exogenous variables.This study was supported by grant number 1 R1 CA95982-01, Geographic-Based Research in Cancer Control and Epidermiology, from the National Cancer Institute. The author thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor for their helpful comments.     

Observations of OH maser lines at an 18-cm wavelength in 9P/Temper1 and Lulin C/2007 N3 comets with RT-22 at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory

Investigations on OH maser lines in comets have been performed with the RT-22 at CrAO. The results of observations of 9P/Temper1 and Lulin C/2007 N3 comets in the OH molecule line at a wavelength of 18 cm are presented. An original technique for observation data analysis has been developed. The gas production rate of OH molecules in these comets is estimated.