The PL calibration for Milky Way Cepheids and its implications for the distance scale

The rationale behind recent calibrations of the Cepheid PL relation using the Wesenheit formulation is reviewed and reanalyzed, and it is shown that recent conclusions regarding a possible change in slope of the PL relation for short-period and long-period Cepheids are tied to a pathological distribution of HST calibrators within the instability strip. A recalibration of the period-luminosity relation is obtained using Galactic Cepheids in open clusters and groups, the resulting relationship, described by log L/L _⊙=2.415(±0.035)+1.148(±0.044)log P, exhibiting only the moderate scatter expected from color spread within the instability strip. The relationship is confirmed by Cepheids with HST parallaxes, although without the need for Lutz-Kelker corrections, and in general by Cepheids with revised Hipparcos parallaxes, albeit with concerns about the cited precisions of the latter. A Wesenheit formulation of W _V =−2.259(±0.083)−4.185(±0.103)log P for Galactic Cepheids is tested successfully using Cepheids in the inner regions of the galaxy NGC 4258, confirming the independent geometrical distance established for the galaxy from OH masers. Differences between the extinction properties of interstellar and extragalactic dust may yet play an important role in the further calibration of the Cepheid PL relation and its application to the extragalactic distance scale.     

Bayesian Spatial Modelling of Gamma Ray Count Data

Gamma ray logging is a method routinely employed by geophysicists and environmental engineers in site geology evaluations. Modelling of gamma ray data from individual boreholes assists in the local identification of major lithological changes; modelling these data from a network of boreholes assists with lithological mapping and spatial stratigraphic correlation. In this paper we employ Bayesian spatial partition models to analyse gamma ray data spatially. In particular, a spatial partition is defined via a Voronoi tessellation and the mean intensity is assumed constant in each cell of the partition. The number of vertices generating the tessellation as well as the locations of vertices are assumed unknown, and uncertainty about these quantities is described via a hierarchical prior distribution. We describe the advantages of the spatial partition modelling approach in the context of smoothing gamma ray count data and describe an implementation that may be extended to the fitting of a more general model than a constant mean within each cell of the partition. As an illustration of the methodology we consider a data set collected from a network of eight boreholes, which is part of a geophysical study to assist in mapping the lithology of a site. Gamma ray logs are linked with geological information from cores and the spatial analysis of log data assists with predicting the lithology at unsampled locations.     

Steady-state size distributions for collisional populations:: analytical solution with size-dependent strength

The steady-state population of bodies resulting from a collisional cascade depends on how material strength varies with size. We find a simple expression for the power-law index of the population, given a power law that describes how material strength varies with size. This result is extended to the case relevant for the asteroid belt and Kuiper belt, in which the material strength is described by 2 separate power laws—one for small bodies and one for larger bodies. We find that the power-law index of the small body population is unaffected by the strength law for the large bodies, and vice versa. Simple analytical expressions describe a wave that is superimposed on the large body population because of the transition between the two power laws describing the strength. These analytical results yield excellent agreement with a numerical simulation of collisional evolution. These results will help to interpret observations of the asteroids and KBOs, and constrain the strength properties of those objects.     

Carbon dioxide sequestration: how much and when?

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) sequestration has been proposed as a key component in technological portfolios for managing anthropogenic climate change, since it may provide a faster and cheaper route to significant reductions in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations than abating CO₂ production. However, CO₂ sequestration is not a perfect substitute for CO₂ abatement because CO₂ may leak back into the atmosphere (thus imposing future climate change impacts) and because CO₂ sequestration requires energy (thus producing more CO₂ and depleting fossil fuel resources earlier). Here we use analytical and numerical models to assess the economic efficiency of CO₂ sequestration and analyze the optimal timing and extent of CO₂ sequestration. The economic efficiency factor of CO₂ sequestration can be expressed as the ratio of the marginal net benefits of sequestering CO₂ and avoiding CO₂ emissions. We derive an analytical solution for this efficiency factor for a simplified case in which we account for CO₂ leakage, discounting, the additional fossil fuel requirement of CO₂ sequestration, and the growth rate of carbon taxes. In this analytical model, the economic efficiency of CO₂ sequestration decreases as the CO₂ tax growth rate, leakage rates and energy requirements for CO₂ sequestration increase. Increasing discount rates increases the economic efficiency factor. In this simple model, short-term sequestration methods, such as afforestation, can even have negative economic efficiencies. We use a more realistic integrated-assessment model to additionally account for potentially important effects such as learning-by-doing and socio-economic inertia on optimal strategies. We measure the economic efficiency of CO₂ sequestration by the ratio of the marginal costs of CO₂ sequestration and CO₂ abatement along optimal trajectories. We show that the positive impacts of investments in CO₂ sequestration through the reduction of future marginal CO₂ sequestration costs and the alleviation of future inertia constraints can initially exceed the marginal sequestration costs. As a result, the economic efficiencies of CO₂ sequestration can exceed 100% and an optimal strategy will subsidize CO₂ sequestration that is initially more expensive than CO₂ abatement. The potential economic value of a feasible and acceptable CO₂ sequestration technology is equivalent – in the adopted utilitarian model – to a one-time investment of several percent of present gross world product. It is optimal in the chosen economic framework to sequester substantial CO₂ quantities into reservoirs with small or zero leakage, given published estimates of marginal costs and climate change impacts. The optimal CO₂ trajectories in the case of sequestration from air can approach the pre-industrial level, constituting geoengineering. Our analysis is silent on important questions (e.g., the effects of model and parametric uncertainty, the potential learning about these uncertainties, or ethical dimension of such geoengineering strategies), which need to be addressed before our findings can be translated into policy-relevant recommendations.     

Fracture in Westerly Granite under AE Feedback and Constant Strain Rate Loading: Nucleation, Quasi-static Propagation, and the Transition to Unstable Fracture Propagation

New observations of fracture nucleation are presented from three triaxial compression experiments on intact samples of Westerly granite, using Acoustic Emission (AE) monitoring. By conducting the tests under different loading conditions, the fracture process is demonstrated for quasi-static fracture (under AE Feedback load), a slowly developing unstable fracture (loaded at a `slow' constant strain rate of 2.5 × 10<sup>−6</sup> /s) and an unstable fracture that develops near instantaneously (loaded at a `fast' constant strain rate of 5 × 10⁻⁵ /s). By recording a continuous ultrasonic waveform during the critical period of fracture, the entire AE catalogue can be captured and the exact time of fracture defined. Under constant strain loading, three stages are observed: (1) An initial nucleation or stable growth phase at a rate of ~ 1.3 mm/s, (2) a sudden increase to a constant or slowly accelerating propagation speed of ~ 18 mm/s, and (3) unstable, accelerating propagation. In the ~ 100 ms before rupture, the high level of AE activity (as seen on the continuous record) prevented the location of discrete AE events. A lower bound estimate of the average propagation velocity (using the time-to-rupture and the existing fracture length) suggests values of a few m/s. However from a low gain acoustic record, we infer that in the final few ms, the fracture propagation speed increased to 175 m/s. These results demonstrate similarities between fracture nucleation in intact rock and the nucleation of dynamic instabilities in stick slip experiments. It is suggested that the ability to constrain the size of an evolving fracture provides a crucial tool in further understanding the controls on fracture nucleation.     

Twelve years of tracking 52-Hz whale calls from a unique source in the North Pacific

A unique whale call with 50–52 Hz emphasis from a single source has been tracked over 12 years in the central and eastern North Pacific. These calls, referred to as 52-Hz calls, were monitored and analyzed from acoustic data recorded by hydrophones of the US Navy Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS) and other arrays. The calls were noticed first in 1989, and have been detected and tracked since 1992. No other calls with similar characteristics have been identified in the acoustic data from any hydrophone system in the North Pacific basin. Only one series of these 52-Hz calls has been recorded at a time, with no call overlap, suggesting that a single whale produced the calls. The calls were recorded from August to February with most in December and January. The species producing these calls is unknown. The tracks of the 52-Hz whale were different each year, and varied in length from 708 to 11,062 km with travel speeds ranging from 0.7 to 3.8 km/h. Tracks included (A) meandering over short ranges, (B) predominantly west-to-east movement, and (C) mostly north-to-south travel. These tracks consistently appeared to be unrelated to the presence or movement of other whale species (blue, fin and humpback) monitored year-round with the same hydrophones.     

Simplified seismic performance assessment and implications for seismic design

The last decade or so has seen the development of refined performance-based earthquake engineering(PBEE) approaches that now provide a framework for estimation of a range of important decision variables,such as repair costs,repair time and number of casualties. This paper reviews current tools for PBEE,including the PACT software,and examines the possibility of extending the innovative displacement-based assessment approach as a simplified structural analysis option for performance assessment. Details of the displacement-based s+eismic assessment method are reviewed and a simple means of quickly assessing multiple hazard levels is proposed. Furthermore,proposals for a simple definition of collapse fragility and relations between equivalent single-degree-of-freedom characteristics and multi-degree-of-freedom story drift and floor acceleration demands are discussed,highlighting needs for future research. To illustrate the potential of the methodology,performance measures obtained from the simplified method are compared with those computed using the results of incremental dynamic analyses within the PEER performance-based earthquake engineering framework,applied to a benchmark building. The comparison illustrates that the simplified method could be a very effective conceptual seismic design tool. The advantages and disadvantages of the simplified approach are discussed and potential implications of advanced seismic performance assessments for conceptual seismic design are highlighted through examination of different case study scenarios including different structural configurations.     

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

Chalk shore platform erosion in the vicinity of sea defence structures and the impact of construction methods

Erosion of the intertidal chalk platform in the vicinity of groynes and seawalls is evident to the naked eye along many stretches of the engineered coastline of southeast England, leading to undermining and eventually failure of these structures. However, quantification of the magnitude and spatial extent of the erosion has been difficult to date because of a lack of data about the past elevation of the platform. The application of softcopy photogrammetry makes it possible to recreate past platform elevations from historic air photographs and to compare these with elevations from modern air photographs. Coastal sea defence structures have been installed along the chalk coast east of Brighton at various dates over the past 70 years. During this period, the construction methods have changed from predominantly manual labour to a reliance on heavy machines. The analysis of erosion patterns around structures built since the 1970s using heavy machinery show that surface lowering is 4 to 25 times greater in the vicinity of these structures than across the platform as a whole. In contrast, there is no similar pattern of increased erosion around structures built using predominantly manual labour in the 1930s. A four fold increase in average surface lowering is found also along a vehicle trackway that crosses the mid platform. Depressions developed by enhanced lowering in the front of seawalls generate their own dynamic of increased erosion by trapping pebbles and cobbles that enhance the abrasion of the chalk through bedload transport under standing waves in front of the walls.