Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators

Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041–70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options.     

Fabric analysis of Allende matrix using EBSD

Abstract— Fabric analysis of the interstitial matrix material in primitive meteorites offers a novel window on asteroid formation and evolution. Electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) has allowed fabrics in these fine‐grained materials to be visualized in detail for the first time. Our data reveal that Allende, a CV3 chondrite, possesses a uniform, planar, short‐axis alignment fabric that is pervasive on a broad scale and is probably the result of deformational shortening related to impact or gravitational compaction. Interference between this matrix fabric and the larger, more rigid components, such as dark inclusions (DIs) and calcium‐aluminium‐rich inclusions (CAIs), has lead to the development of locally oriented and intensified matrix fabrics. In addition, DIs possess fabrics that are conformable with the broader matrix fabric. These results suggest that DIs were in situ prior to the deformational shortening event responsible for these fabrics, thus providing an argument against dark inclusions being fragments from another lithified part of the asteroid (Kojima and Tomeoka 1996; Fruland et al. 1978). Moreover, both DIs and Allende matrix are highly porous (?25%) (Corrigan et al. 1997). Mobilizing a highly porous DI during impact‐induced brecciation without imposing a fabric and incorporating it into a highly porous matrix without significantly compacting these materials is improbable. We favor a model that involves Allende DIs, CAIs, and matrix accreting together and experiencing the same deformation events.     

On the Multiplicity of the O-Star Cyg OB2 #8a and its Contribution to the γ-ray Source 3EG J2033+4118

We present the results of an intensive spectroscopic campaign in the optical waveband revealing that Cyg OB2 #8A is an O6+O5.5 binary system with a period of about 21.9 days. Cyg OB2 #8A is a bright X-ray source, as well as a non-thermal radio emitter. We discuss the binarity of this star in the framework of a campaign devoted to the study of non-thermal emitters, from the radio waveband to γ-rays. In this context, we attribute the non-thermal radio emission from this star to a population of relativistic electrons, accelerated by the shock of the wind-wind collision. These relativistic electrons could also be responsible for a putative γ-ray emission through inverse Compton scattering of photospheric UV photons, thus contributing to the yet unidentified EGRET source 3EG J2033+4118. Based partly on data Obtained at the Observatoire de Haute-Provence, France.     

Dissociative excitation of SO2 by controlled electron impact

The fragmentation of SO₂ following dissociative electron impact excitation has been studied under single collision conditions for incident electron energies up to 500 eV. The emission spectrum in the far v.u.v. spectral range (450–1100Å) shows many features arising from excited neutral oxygen and ionized oxygen and sulphur fragments. Absolute emission cross sections have been measured for the most intense lines and the maximum values were found to range from 1–12 × 10^?19 cm² with an uncertainty of approx. ± 35%. Dissociation mechanisms are discussed and in some cases the dissociation path could be uniquely identified. The striking differences between the v.u.v. emission spectrum produced by single step dissociation of SO₂ and the spectra emitted by the plasma torus around Jupiter are discussed.     

A comparison between cokriging and ordinary kriging: Case study with a polymetallic deposit

Cokriging is applied to the estimation of mineral resources in a polymetallic deposit. Several major steps, which should be taken in using cokriging, are highlighted as necessary practical considerations. The case study is related to an ultramafic copper-nickel deposit. Six elements, Cu, Ni, Au, Ag, Pt, and Pd, occurring in the deposit, are partitioned into three subgroups and the elements within each group are simultaneously estimated on the basis of over 4000 drill assays. A comparison was made between ordinary kriging and cokriging methods through cross-validation. The results show that cokriging has significantly improved the estimates of resources by reducing the overall estimation error by over 15% and the variance of error by over 20%.