Introduction to ground surface self-potential tomography

A new approach to self-potential (SP) data interpretation for the recognition of a buried causative SP source system is presented. The general model considered is characterized by the presence of primary electric sources or sinks, located within any complex resistivity structure with a flat air-earth boundary. First, using physical considerations of the nature of the electric potential generated by any arbitrary distribution of primary source charges and the related secondary induced charges over the buried resistivity discontinuity planes, a general formula is derived for the potential and the electric field component along any fixed direction on the ground surface. The total effect is written as a sum of elementary contributions, all of the same simple mathematical form. It is then demonstrated that the total electric power associated with the standing natural electric field component can be written in the space domain as a sum of cross-correlation integrals between the observed component of the total electric field and the component of the field due to each single constitutive elementary charge. By means of the cross-correlation bounding inequality, the concept of a scanning function is introduced as the key to the new interpretation procedure. In the space domain, the scanning function is the unit strength electric field component generated by an elementary positive charge. Next, the concept of charge occurrence probability is introduced as a suitable function for the tomographic imaging of the charge distribution geometry underground. This function is defined as the cross-correlation product of the total observed electric field component and the scanning function, divided by the square root of the product of the respective variances. Using this physical scheme, the tomographic procedure is described. It consists of scanning the section, through any SP survey profile, by the unit strength elementary charge, which is given a regular grid of space coordinates within the section, at each point of which the charge occurrence probability function is calculated. The complete set of calculated grid values can be used to draw contour lines in order to single out the zones of highest probability of concentrations of polarized, primary and secondary electric charges. An extension to the wavenumber domain and to three-dimensional tomography is also presented and discussed. A few simple synthetic examples are given to demonstrate the resolution power of the new SP inversion procedure.     

Evolution of sand waves in the Messina Strait, Italy

In the present paper the morphodynamics of sand waves in the Messina Strait, Italy, is analysed by comparing data gathered during two different surveys carried out in 1991 and 2001, respectively. In particular, a morphometric analysis on the most recent data and a qualitative analysis of the differences between bottom bedform patterns, are carried out. At locations characterised by greater depths, only minor changes to the planimetric configuration of the field, i.e. crest orientation (which is seen to be orthogonal to the direction of net gross sand transport) and wave length are observed, while differences in wave length and crest direction are more evident in more shallow areas. On the other hand, wave height has significantly increased in the whole field. A possible explanation of such a change, based on the previsions of a theory which relates sand-wave growth and migration to the main components of the tidal ellipse, is provided.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Seismic activity at the MCT in Sikkim Himalaya

A microearthquake survey in the Sikkim Himalaya raised a question whether the north–south segment of the Main Central Thrust (MCT) in this part of the Himalaya is seismically active(?). Fault-plane solution of a cluster of events occurred below this segment of the MCT shows right-lateral strike-slip motion. The seismic observations and the geological evidences suggest that a NNE–SSW trending strike-slip fault, beneath this segment, caused right lateral movement on the MCT, and is seismically active.     

Archaeoseismic record at the ancient Roman City of Baelo Claudia (Cádiz, south Spain)

This study represents the first paleoseismic approach in Spain in which archaeological remains are considered. The ancient Roman city of Baelo Claudia (1st–4th centuries AD), located at the axial zone of the Gibraltar Strait (Cadiz, south Spain), contains abundant disrupted architectural relics and ground collapses (i.e. landsliding, liquefacion) probably related to historic earthquake damage of intensity IX–X MSK. The archaeological stratigraphy of the city evidence two major episodes of abrupt city destruction bracketed in AD 40–60 and AD 350–395 separated by an intervening horizon of demolition for city rebuilding, otherwise characteristic for many earthquake-damaged archaeological sites in the Mediterranean. The second episode led the eventual city abandonment, and it is evidenced by good examples of column collapse, distortion, failure and breakdown of house and city walls, and pavement warping and disruptions documented during different archaeological excavations, which can be catalogued as secondary coseismic effects. Main damaged relicts observable today are the set of pop-up like arrays and warping developed in the ancient Roman pavement. Their analysis indicate an anomalous westwards ground displacement oblique to the main gentle southward slope of the topography, as also evidence failures, collapses and breakdown of walls and columns, suggesting that stress acted in a broad SW–NE/WSW–ENE orientation consistent whit the expectable motion along the largest NE–SW strike-slip faults of the zone, which in turn can be catalogued as seismic sources of moderate events (ca. 5 mb). Major disruptions and city abandonment were hesitantly related to relatively far strong earthquakes occurred during the late 4th century AD in the Mediterranean or western coast of Iberia by Menanteau et al. [Menanteau, L., Vanney, J.R., Zazo, C., 1983. Belo II : Belo et son environment (Detroit de Gibraltar), Etude physique d'un site antique. Pub. Casa de Velazquez, Serie Archeologie 4., Ed. Broccard, París.]. However, this study indicates that the occurrence of close moderate earthquakes jointly with the unstable character of the ground at the zone (site effect) is a more reliable hypothesis to explain the observed deformations.     

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

Test of a distributed modelling approach to predict flood flows in the karst Suoimuoi catchment in Vietnam

The major obstacles for modelling flood processes in karst areas are a lack of understanding and model representations of the distinctive features and processes associated with runoff generation and often a paucity of field data. In this study, a distributed flood-modelling approach, WetSpa, is modified and applied to simulate the hydrological features and processes in the karst Suoimuoi catchment in northwest Vietnam. With input of topography, land use and soil types in a GIS format, the model is calibrated based on 15 months of hourly meteorological and hydrological data, and is used to simulate both fast surface and conduit flows, and groundwater discharges from karst and non-karst aquifers. Considerable variability in the simulation accuracy is found among storm events and within the catchment. The simulation results show that the model is able to represent reasonably well the stormflows generated by rainfall events in the study catchment.     

GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in northern Ardenne–Eifel: five campaigns (1999–2003) of the HARD project

We present the HARD project of GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in NE Ardenne and Eifel (western Europe). Its main purposes are to get a better insight into the present-day rates of vertical ground motion in intraplate settings and to identify the various causes of these motions. Since 1999, we have carried out yearly campaigns of simultaneous GPS measurements at 12 sites situated so as to sample the different tectonic subunits of the study area and especially to record potential displacements across the seismogenic Hockai fault zone. Five campaigns (1999–2003) have been processed currently. Key issues of the data processing with the Gamit software are discussed and first results are presented. Though temporally consistent in many cases, the obtained vertical motion rates are spatially highly variable. They are also much too high (several mm/year) to support a tectonic interpretation, and a long-term influence of groundwater level variations is proposed to account for the observed motions. This influence should be distinguished from seasonal variations and from inter-survey variations linked to the varying degree of soil and subsoil drying off during the successive spring surveys.