青藏高原北部地区强震活动特征与地震大形势

本文研究了青藏高原北部地区强震活动的特征,结果是:地震活跃期为230—250年,平静期为130—150年;喜马拉雅南缘、青藏高原南部地区强震与本区强震明显相关,喜马拉雅南缘与缅甸北部地区发生强震后本区发震的概率分别为87.5%和66.7%;本区7级地震分带交替发生,最先发生的两个6级地震对预测未来7级地震发震地点有一定意义;中强震在8级地震前不活跃,而在7级地震前比较活跃,且青海北部与西部发生6级地震后,甘肃东南部或甘青川交界有5级地震活动。据此判断本区未来10年内存在发生7级强震的危险。     

基于地缘影响力模型的大国地缘政治博弈——以钓鱼岛问题背景下的中美博弈为例

大国地缘政治博弈事关国家安全,影响世界格局。通过对地理要素的综合考量构建了地缘影响力模型,并基于博弈论建立了钓鱼岛问题大国地缘政治博弈树,对中美博弈过程进行了分析。最后针对钓鱼岛问题4种博弈走势提出了战略应对参考建议。研究结果表明：①在中国大陆主导时,各国保持合作将共赢,一旦动武,若美俄地缘战略决策指数不高,形势对中国大陆不利。②当美国地缘战略决策指数较小,俄罗斯较大时,是解决钓鱼岛问题的战略良机。③中国台湾是中国解决钓鱼岛问题的重要影响因素,要灵活把握与处理。④ 在4种战略博弈形势下,均存在中美战略博弈的纳什均衡,但美国、日本和中国台湾有一定概率铤而走险,要保持警惕并做好战略应对。⑤ 博弈分析结果较为客观的反映了钓鱼岛问题的多种战略走向,并与当前相关大国关于钓鱼岛问题的战略基本吻合,印证了地缘影响力模型对地理要素量化的可行性以及大国地缘政治博弈分析方法的合理性。     

Tectonic uplift history of the Yitong Basin since the Oligocene,Northeast China：Evidence from apatite fission track ages and geological relationship

The Yitong Basin is an oil-bearing basin with unique characteristics in Northeast China. On the basis of apatite fission track ages and geological relationship, the tectonic uplift history of the Yitong Basin since the Oligo-cene was discussed. Based on apatite fission track analysis of five samples from the Luxiang and Chaluhe fault de-pressions and basin modeling study, it can be concluded that since the Oligocene (36.6 Ma) in the Yitong Basin, the Chaluhe fault depression has undergone two episodes of uplift during 24.9–19.1 Ma and 6.9–4.9 Ma. And the Luxi-ang fault depression also had undergone two episodes of uplift during 30–27.8 Ma and 22.6–11.1 Ma. Moreover, the average apparent exhumation rates for the Chaluhe fault depression and Luxiang fault depression, could be calcu-lated to be 70.34 and 60.33 m/Ma since 21.8 Ma and 18.9 Ma, respectively. The results of thermochronological analysis can also be supported by the evidence from geological relationships such as geodynamics, volcanic activity, and stratigraphic division and correlation.     

软土一维次固结特性试验研究

基于南京河西地区原状和重塑软粘土的一系列一维次固结试验,探讨了预压荷载、加荷比、加荷方式对重塑软土次固结系数的影响以及原状土的次固结变形特征。试验结果表明：当荷载小于预压荷载时,预压能明显减小次固结系数,反之,预压对次固结系数的影响不明显．加荷比对次固结系数的影响明显,次固结系数随加荷比的增大而增大;分级加荷对应的次固结系数要大于分别加荷所对应的次固结系数;该地区原状土的蠕变属于衰减蠕变。     

Climate warming and growth of high-elevation inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau

The growth of two high-elevation inland lakes (at 4600 m) was analyzed using satellite imagery (2000–2005) and data were collected over the last decade (1997–2006) at a plateau meteorological station (at 4820 m) and stream gauging data from a station (at 4250 m) in central Tibet. We examined the lake water balance responses to meteorological and hydrological variables. The results show that the lake areas greatly expanded by a maximum of 27.1% (or 43.7 km²) between 1998 and 2005. This expansion appears to be associated with an increase in annual precipitation of 51.0 mm (12.6%), mean annual and winter mean temperature increases of 0.41 °C and 0.71 °C, and an annual runoff increase of 20% during the last decade. The changes point to an abrupt increase in the annual precipitation, mean temperature and runoff occurring in 1996, 1998 and 1997, respectively, and a decrease in the annual pan evaporation that happened in 1996. The timing of lake growth corresponds closely with abrupt increases in the annual precipitation and runoff and with the decrease in the annual evaporation since the mid-1990s. This study indicates a strong positive water balance in these permafrost highland lakes, and provides further evidence of lake growth as a proxy indicator of climate variability and change.     

藏北羌塘盆地与西亚特提斯盆地构造比较及其油气远景

羌塘盆地是中国西部除塔里木、柴达木、准噶尔盆地外，又一大型古生代一中新生代盆地。与其具有相似构造背景的西亚特提斯带盆地群是目前世界上油气最富集的地区。通过对西亚特提斯带含油气盆地的形成、构造演化背景的分析，探讨了盆地油气富集的地质条件，认为羌塘盆地的形成演化与特提斯西段阿富汗地块具有相似性，侏罗纪的沉积演化和构造格局与中亚的长拉库姆油气盆地类似，故具备形成油气的基本条件。然而，羌塘盆地距喜马拉雅褶皱带较近，新近纪以来构造改造十分强烈。逆冲推覆作用一方面可以产生构造圈闭，但也使烃源岩的成熟度偏高，不利于油气的保存，这与中东地区含油气盆地油气大量聚集的油气田具有显著差异。为此羌塘盆地的油气勘探应寻找保存条件与生油条件相匹配的地区。     

地震学中非线性预测方法的初步研究

介绍了近年来地震预测学中非线性理论和非线性方法的研究趋势和最新研究进展。在非线性数学模型的研究中，较为成功地将非线性门限模型，指数模型、具有长程关联自回归模型等应用于地震的中期预测上，在分形研究上，明确地取代了以往的一些经验结果，使对地震的活动的经验统计关系上升到分形的理论，在研究地震的动力学机制中，以多滑块－弹簧模型为代表，模拟地壳上地震断层运动机制和事实，建立了粘滑摩擦情况下的参数动力学方程。     

硅藻土表面酸位及其来源探讨

用红外、拉曼谱学方法探讨了硅藻土表面酸位，并分析了其来源。结果表明，硅藻土表面有限的Lewis酸位来源于矿样中的少量粘土矿物。其表面的Brφnsted酸位也很稀少，这是由于大部分表面羟基是非质子酸性。