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291.
The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly.  相似文献   
292.
This paper presents the results of the compositional study of 29 samples of mortar from the so‐called “Garum Shop” (I, 12, 8) at Pompeii in Southern Italy. The characterization of the samples yielded information on the raw materials used in the mixtures, the production technology of mortars, and the building phases. It was carried out through polarized optical microscopy, X‐ray powder diffraction, X‐ray fluorescence, microanalysis energy‐dispersive X‐ray spectroscopic microanalysis, and image analysis through the JMicroVision software. The resultant data show great compositional homogeneity among the samples, suggesting the presence of a principal construction phase, probably associated with the first phase of the house. Apart from this main construction phase, there are some samples that show differences related either to their different function or to the fact that they come from different construction phases or restoration works. The raw materials used are related to the geology of the area and are fully compatible with the pyroclastic deposits of Vesuvius.  相似文献   
293.
During the past few decades, the basic assumption of agroclimatic zoning, i.e., that agroclimatic conditions remain relatively stable, has been shattered by ongoing climate change. The first aim of this study was to develop a tool that would allow for effective analysis of various agroclimatic indicators and their dynamics under climate change conditions for a particular region. The results of this effort were summarized in the AgriClim software package, which provides users with a wide range of parameters essential for the evaluation of climate-related stress factors in agricultural crop production. The software was then tested over an area of 114,000 km2 in Central Europe. We have found that by 2020, the combination of increased air temperature and changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation will lead to a prolonged growing season and significant shifts in the agroclimatic zones in Central Europe; in particular, the areas that are currently most productive will be reduced and replaced by warmer but drier conditions in the same time the higher elevations will most likely experience improvement in their agroclimatic conditions. This positive effect might be short-lived, as by 2050, even these areas might experience much drier conditions than observed currently. Both the rate and the scale of the shift are amazing as by 2020 (assuming upper range of the climate change projections) only 20?C38% of agriculture land in the evaluated region will remain in the same agroclimatic and by 2050 it might be less than 2%. On the other hand farmers will be able to take advantage of an earlier start to the growing season, at least in the lowland areas, as the proportion of days suitable for sowing increases. As all of these changes might occur within less than four decades, these issues could pose serious adaptation challenges for farmers and governmental policies. The presented results also suggest that the rate of change might be so rapid that the concept of static agroclimatic zoning itself might lose relevance due to perpetual change.  相似文献   
294.
This study describes typical error ranges of high resolution regional climate models operated over complex orography and investigates the scale-dependence of these error ranges. The results are valid primarily for the European Alpine region, but to some extent they can also be transferred to other orographically complex regions of the world. We investigate the model errors by evaluating a set of 62 one-year hindcast experiments for the year 1999 with four different regional climate models. The analysis is conducted for the parameters mean sea level pressure, air temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) and precipitation (mean, frequency and intensity), both as an area average over the whole modeled domain (the “Greater Alpine Region”, GAR) and in six subregions. The subregional seasonal error ranges, defined as the interval between the 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile, lie between ?3.2 and +2.0 K for temperature and between ?2.0 and +3.1 mm/day (?45.7 and +94.7%) for precipitation, respectively. While the temperature error ranges are hardly broadened at smaller scales, the precipitation error ranges increase by 28%. These results demonstrate that high resolution RCMs are applicable in relatively small scale climate impact studies with a comparable quality as on well investigated larger scales as far as temperature is concerned. For precipitation, which is a much more demanding parameter, the quality is moderately degraded on smaller scales.  相似文献   
295.
A large-scale fluid flow and solute transport model was developed for the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto Island, Finland, which is considered as potential deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Site characterization showed that the main flow pathways in the low-permeability crystalline bedrock on the island are 13 subhorizontal fracture zones. Compared to other sites investigated in the context of deep disposal of spent nuclear fuel, most deep boreholes drilled at Olkiluoto are not packed-off but are instead left open. These open boreholes intersect the main fracture zones and create hydraulic connections between them, thus modifying groundwater flow. The combined impact of fracture zones and open boreholes on groundwater flow is simulated at the scale of the island. The modeling approach couples a geomodel that represents the fracture zones and boreholes with a numerical model that simulates fluid flow and solute transport. The geometry of the fracture zones that are intersected by boreholes is complex, and the 3D geomodel was therefore constructed with a tetrahedral mesh. The geomodel was imported into the numerical model to simulate a pumping test conducted on Olkiluoto Island. The pumping test simulation demonstrates that fracture-borehole intersections must be accurately discretized, because they strongly control groundwater flow. The tetrahedral mesh provides an accurate representation of these intersections. The calibrated flow model was then used for illustrative scenarios of radionuclide migration to show the impact of fracture zones on solute transport once the boreholes were backfilled. These mass transport simulations constitute base cases for future predictive analyses and sensitivity studies, since they represent key processes to take into consideration for repository performance assessment.  相似文献   
296.
Data recorded with the Bucovina Romanian Seismic Array (BURAR) seismic array between January 2005 and December 2008 were analyzed to verify the monitoring capabilities of regional and distant seismicity. For this time interval, nearly 35,000 events detected by BURAR and identified in seismic bulletins (Preliminary Determination of Epicenters and Romanian Earthquake Catalogue) were investigated using parameters as backazimuth, epicentral distance and magnitude. A remarkably detection capability is emphasized for teleseismic observations (Δ > 20°). BURAR onsets could be associated to almost 60% of all events in the teleseismic distance, with a magnitude detection threshold of 4.5 (mb). When no threshold magnitude is applied, the full detection capability of BURAR is in the same order as the performance of GERES array, which is one of the most sensitive stations in Central Europe. For regional events, detection capability decreases to about 16% of all events within regional distance range. The site conditions (crustal structure and high frequency cultural noise) as well as array dimension, affect the signal coherency and reduce the array detection capability for regional events. For both teleseismic and regional distances, a monthly variation of BURAR detection capabilities has been found; the number of events detected during the summer time is diminished by the specific seasonal human activity and atmospheric conditions (thunderstorms). To prove the good detection capability of the BURAR for teleseismic distances, a comparison with the observations of the Romanian Real Time Network in terms of magnitude and epicentral distance was carried out. The higher signal detection capability of BURAR is due to the array techniques applied in data processing, which enhance the signal-to-noise ratio. The monitoring performed by the BURAR seismic array provides a good azimuthal coverage of the regional and distant seismicity, in a large range of epicentral distances.  相似文献   
297.
Using a computer code based on the finite element method, a study is conducted to analyse the time-dependent behaviour of a geosynthetic-reinforced and jet grout column-supported embankment on soft soils, as well as the influence of three factors: the embankment height, the elastic modulus of column and the column spacing. The cylindrical unit cell formulation is used. The numerical model incorporates the Biot consolidation theory with soil constitutive relations simulated by the pqθ critical state model. Special emphasis is given to the analysis of several parameters: settlement, excess pore pressure, effective stress, stress level, tension in the geosynthetic, soil arching effect and overall efficiency coefficient.  相似文献   
298.
Kveithola Trough, an E–W trending glacial trough in the NW Barents Sea, was surveyed for the first time during the EGLACOM cruise of R/V OGS-Explora in summer 2008. Swath bathymetry shows that the seafloor is characterized by E–W trending mega-scale glacial lineations (MSGL) that record a fast flowing ice stream draining the Svalbard/Barents Sea Ice Sheet (SBIS) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). MSGL are overprinted by transverse sediment ridges about 15 km apart which give rise to a staircase axial profile of the trough. Such transverse ridges are interpreted to be grounding-zone wedges (GZWs) formed by deposition of subglacial till during episodic ice stream retreat. Sub-bottom (CHIRP) and multi-channel reflection seismic data show that the present-day morphology is largely inherited from the palaeo-seafloor topography at the time of deposition of the transverse ridges, overlain by a draping glaciomarine unit which in places is over 15 m thick. Our data allow the reconstruction of depositional processes which accompanied deglaciation of the Spitsbergen Bank area. The sedimentary drape deposited on top of the GZWs is suggested to have accumulated at a very high rate, (on average in the order of 1–1.5 m ka?1) and therefore may potentially preserve a high-resolution palaeoclimatic record of deglaciation and post-glacial conditions in this sector of the Barents Sea.  相似文献   
299.
Observations using a three-dimensional scanning coherent Doppler lidar in an urban area revealed the characteristics of streaky structures above a rough, inhomogeneous surface for a high-Reynolds-number flow. The study focused on two points: (1) the frequency of occurrence and conditions required for the presence of streaky structures, and (2) the universal scaling of the spacing of streaky structures (\(\lambda )\). The horizontal snapshots of the radial velocity were visually classified into six groups: Streak, Mixed, Fishnet, No streak, Front, and Others. The Streak category accounted for more than 50% of all possible flows and occurred when the horizontal wind speed was large and the atmospheric stratification was near-neutral. The spacing (\(\lambda )\) was estimated from the power spectral density of the streamwise velocity fluctuations along the spanwise direction. The spacing \(\lambda \) decreased with an increase in the local velocity gradient. Furthermore, it was revealed that the local velocity gradient normalized by the friction velocity and the boundary-layer height (\(z_i )\) comprehensively predicts \(\lambda /z_i \) under various experimental and environmental conditions, in terms of the scale of motion (i.e., indoor and outdoor scales), thermal stratification (i.e., from weakly unstable to stable stratification), and surface roughness (i.e., from flat to very rough surfaces).  相似文献   
300.
Urban areas are especially vulnerable to high temperatures, which will intensify in the future due to climate change. Therefore, both good knowledge about the local urban climate as well as simple and robust methods for its projection are needed. This study has analysed the spatio-temporal variance of the mean nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) of Hamburg, with observations from 40 stations from different suppliers. The UHI showed a radial gradient with about 2 K in the centre mostly corresponding to the urban densities. Temporarily, it has a strong seasonal cycle with the highest values between April and September and an inter-annual variability of approximately 0.5 K. Further, synoptic meteorological drivers of the UHI were analysed, which generally is most pronounced under calm and cloud-free conditions. Considered were meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, wind speed, cloud cover and objective weather types. For the stations with the highest UHI intensities, up to 68.7 % of the variance could be explained by seasonal empirical models and even up to 76.6 % by monthly models.  相似文献   
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