Active tectonics of the Northern Apennines and Adria geodynamics: new data and a discussion

The active geodynamic setting of the Northern Apennines is characterised by extension in the axial zone of the chain, and by a more complex tectonic behaviour in the frontal part of the belt. In the latter sector, moderate seismicity occurs, displaying compressional, strike-slip and extensional focal plane solutions with variably oriented P and T axes. For this area, a review of available geological and geophysical data has been integrated by the analysis of seismic reflection lines calibrated with deep well logs. This study confirms that, as already suggested by some previous workers, thrusting and related folding in the study area ceased in Early Pleistocene times. This feature is in contrast with the hypothesis of active thrusting related to a subducting lithospheric slab beneath the chain—an issue which is largely debated based on available geophysical information. Our analysis shows that the Northern Apennines are characterised by an active tectonic setting which is similar to that of the central and southern portions of the belt. These areas all display a Late Quaternary inactivity of the thrust front. NE–SW oriented extension (perpendicular to the strike of the orogen) is well established in their axial zones, whereas a less homogeneous stress field characterises their external sectors and the adjacent foreland. Within this framework, the seismotectonic behaviour of the Northern Apennines—and probably of the whole Italian peninsula between the Po Plain and the Southern Apennines (north of the Calabrian Arc)—may be interpreted as essentially controlled by two main processes. The first of them involves tectonic uplift, possibly related with slab detachment and associated unbending of the foreland plate. The second process consists of a present-day northwestward motion of the Adria block with respect to stable Europe.     

The role of water in the 1944 Vesuvius eruption

The P-T path of magma associated with the 1944 Vesuvius eruption has been outlined on the basis of probe mineralogy and the relationships between the crystallising phases. Equilibrium P-T values, obtained from the reactions:

1. CaMgSi₂O_6(liq) = CaMgSi₂O_6(cpx)
2. NaAlSi₃O_{8 (liq)} = NaAlSi₃O_{8 (plag)}
3. CaAl₂Si₂O_{8 (plag)}=CaAl₂SiO_6(cpx)+SiO_2(liq) have been established for three intracrustal crystallisation stages: I) 8.0 kbar and 1255 °C; II) 4.0 kbar and 1178 °C; III) 0.5 kbar and 1105 °C.

The H₂O content in the magma has been estimated from an experimental calibration of \(a_{^{CaMgSi_2 O_6 } }^{liq}\) as a function of \(X_{H_2 O}^{liq}\) at P _tot = 2 kbar. The estimated water contents of the magma for the three stages, I) 0.7%; II) 0.9%; III) 1.1%, are consistent with the pattern of activity of the 1944 Vesuvius eruption and with the relationship between the lavas. The shallow depth of H₂O-saturation of the magma, 0.24 kbar at 1100 °C, is consistent with the eruption sequence of lava flows followed by lava fountain activity.     

Zircon and monazite response to prograde metamorphism in the Reynolds Range, central Australia

We report an extensive field-based study of zircon and monazite in the metamorphic sequence of the Reynolds Range (central Australia), where greenschist- to granulite-facies metamorphism is recorded over a continuous crustal section. Detailed cathodoluminescence and back-scattered electron imaging, supported by SHRIMP U–Pb dating, has revealed the different behaviours of zircon and monazite during metamorphism. Monazite first recorded regional metamorphic ages (1576 ± 5 Ma), at amphibolite-facies grade, at ∼600 °C. Abundant monazite yielding similar ages (1557 ± 2 to 1585 ± 3 Ma) is found at granulite-facies conditions in both partial melt segregations and restites. New zircon growth occurred between 1562 ± 4 and 1587 ± 4 Ma, but, in contrast to monazite, is only recorded in granulite-facies rocks where melt was present (≥700 °C). New zircon appears to form at the expense of pre-existing detrital and inherited cores, which are partly resorbed. The amount of metamorphic growth in both accessory minerals increases with temperature and metamorphic grade. However, new zircon growth is influenced by rock composition and driven by partial melting, factors that appear to have little effect on the formation of metamorphic monazite. The growth of these accessory phases in response to metamorphism extends over the 30 Ma period of melt crystallisation (1557–1587 Ma) in a stable high geothermal regime. Rare earth element patterns of zircon overgrowths in leucosome and restite indicate that, during the protracted metamorphism, melt-restite equilibrium was reached. Even in the extreme conditions of long-lasting high temperature (750–800 °C) metamorphism, Pb inheritance is widely preserved in the detrital zircon cores. A trace of inheritance is found in monazite, indicating that the closure temperature of the U–Pb system in relatively large monazite crystals can exceed 750–800 °C. Received: 7 April 2000 / Accepted: 12 August 2000     

Skill of 6HR and 12HR thunderstorm forecasts based on assessment of larger-scale information

Summary The relationship between information, contained in aerological data from the European area, and a thunderstorm occurrence in the area of the Czech Republic was investigated with input data from the period of May–September 1989–1991. SYNOP reports from Czech ground stations were utilized to assess event occurrence. TEMP 00UTC and TEMP 12UTC reports from European stations were used to determine potential diagnostic predictors, and the TEMP00 data served as the input data set for the 12hr mesoscale model forecast to gain prognostic predictors. Each of the two diagnostic data sets from 00UTC and 12UTC and of the prognostic data set comprised about 400 predictors/predictand elements. The categorical forecast of thunderstorm occurrence, based on the application of linear regression and a simple version of pattern recognition, is discussed. The critical success index was determined for every type of forecast and used to assess forecast skill.     

Phanerozoic high-pressure eclogite and intermediate-pressure granulite facies metamorphism in the Gyeonggi Massif, South Korea: Implications for the eastward extension of the Dabie–Sulu continental collision zone

Petrological analysis, zircon trace element analysis and SHRIMP zircon U–Pb dating of retrogressed eclogite and garnet granulite from Bibong, Hongseong area, SW Gyeonggi Massif, South Korea provide compelling evidence for Triassic (231.4 ± 3.3 Ma) high-pressure (HP) eclogite facies (M1) metamorphisms at a peak pressure–temperature (P–T) of ca. 16.5–20.0 kb and 775–850 °C. This was followed by isothermal decompression (ITD), with a sharp decrease in pressure from 20 to 10 kb and a slight temperature rise from eclogite facies (M1) to granulite facies (M2), followed by uplift and cooling. Granitic orthogneiss surrounding the Baekdong garnet granulite and the ophiolite-related ultramafic lenticular body near Bibong records evidence for a later Silurian (418 ± 8 Ma) intermediate high-pressure (IHP) granulite facies metamorphism and a prograde P–T path with peak P–T conditions of ca. 13.5 kb and 800 °C. K–Ar ages of biotite from garnet granulites, amphibolites, and granitic orthogneisses in and around the Bibong metabasite lenticular body are 208–219 Ma, recording cooling to about 310 °C after the Early Triassic metamorphic peak. Neoproterozoic zircon cores in the retrogressed eclogite and granitic orthogneiss provide evidence that the protoliths of these rocks were  800 and  900 Ma old, respectively, similar to the ages of tectonic episodes in the Central Orogenic Belt of China. This, and the evidence for Triassic HP/UHP metamorphism in both China and Korea, is consistent with a regional tectonic link within Northeast Asia from the time of Rodinia amalgamation to Triassic continent–continent collision between the North and South China Blocks, and with an eastward extension of the Dabie–Sulu suture zone into the Hongseong area of South Korea.     

Tropospheric parameters: combination studies based on homogeneous VLBI and GPS data

The combination of tropospheric parameters derived from different space-geodetic techniques has not been of large interest in geodesy so far. However, due to the high correlation between station coordinates and tropospheric parameters, the latter should not be neglected in combinations. This paper deals with the comparison and combination of tropospheric parameters derived from global positioning system (GPS) and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations stemming from a 15-day campaign of continuous VLBI observations in 2002 (CONT02). The observation data of both techniques were processed homogeneously to avoid systematic differences between the solutions. We compared the tropospheric estimates of GPS and VLBI at eight co-location sites and found a very good agreement in the temporal behavior of the tropospheric zenith path delays (ZPD), reflected by correlation factors up to 0.98. Following this, a combination of the tropospheric parameters was performed. We demonstrate that the combination of tropospheric parameters leads to a stabilization of combined station networks. This becomes visible in the improvement of the repeatabilities of the station height components. Furthermore, the potential use of independent data from water vapor radiometers (WVRs) to validate space-technique-derived tropospheric parameters was investigated. Correlation coefficients of 0.95 or better were estimated between the tropospheric parameters of WVR and GPS or VLBI. Additionally, the utility of the tropospheric parameters for validation of local tie vectors was investigated. Both tropospheric zenith delays and tropospheric gradients were found to be very suitable to validate the height component and the horizontal components of the local tie, respectively.     

Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe

Probability distributions of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in a suite of ten RCMs are investigated for (1) biases compared to observations in the present day climate and (2) climate change signals compared to the simulated present day climate. The simulated inter-model differences and climate changes are also compared to the observed natural variability as reflected in some very long instrumental records. All models have been forced with driving conditions from the same global model and run for both a control period and a future scenario period following the A2 emission scenario from IPCC. We find that the bias in the fifth percentile of daily minimum temperatures in winter and at the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature during summer is smaller than 3 (±5°C) when averaged over most (all) European sub-regions. The simulated changes in extreme temperatures both in summer and winter are larger than changes in the median for large areas. Differences between models are larger for the extremes than for mean temperatures. A comparison with historical data shows that the spread in model predicted changes in extreme temperatures is larger than the natural variability during the last centuries.     

Susceptibility of intrusion-related landslides at volcanic islands: the Stromboli case study

Susceptibility of intrusion-related landslides in an active volcano was evaluated coupling the landslide susceptibility estimation by random forest (RF), and the probabilistic volcanic vent opening distribution, as proxy for magma injection, using the QVAST tool. In order to develop and test the method proposed here, the RF/QVAST approach was adopted for Stromboli volcano (Southern Italy) since it experienced moderate to huge instability events, it is geomorphologically prone to instability events, and it is affected by active intense volcanic activity that can produce slope instability. The main destabilizing factors of the volcanic flanks are the slope, the aspect, the terrain roughness, the land cover and the litho-technical features of the outcropping rocks. Estimation of volcanic susceptibility shows that the areas with high probability of new vent opening are located in the north-western unstable volcano flank (Sciara del Fuoco), in the volcano summit and the north-eastern volcano flank coherent with the possible re-activation of the eruptive fissures related to the regional tectonic setting. The areas with higher probability of intrusion-related landslides are located in the upper part of the Sciara del Fuoco, while the rest of the island show moderate to low probability of intrusion-related landslide occurrence.