Improved regional scale processes reflected in projected hydrological changes over large European catchments

For the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the recent version of the coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model (GCM) of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology has been used to conduct an ensemble of transient climate simulations These simulations comprise three control simulations for the past century covering the period 1860–2000, and nine simulations for the future climate (2001–2100) using greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol concentrations according to the three IPCC scenarios B1, A1B and A2. For each scenario three simulations were performed. The global simulations were dynamically downscaled over Europe using the regional climate model (RCM) REMO at 0.44° horizontal resolution (about 50 km), whereas the physics packages of the GCM and RCM largely agree. The regional simulations comprise the three control simulations (1950–2000), the three A1B simulations and one simulation for B1 as well as for A2 (2001–2100). In our study we concentrate on the climate change signals in the hydrological cycle and the 2 m temperature by comparing the mean projected climate at the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100) to a control period representing current climate (1961–1990). The robustness of the climate change signal projected by the GCM and RCM is analysed focussing on the large European catchments of Baltic Sea (land only), Danube and Rhine. In this respect, a robust climate change signal designates a projected change that sticks out of the noise of natural climate variability. Catchments and seasons are identified where the climate change signal in the components of the hydrological cycle is robust, and where this signal has a larger uncertainty. Notable differences in the robustness of the climate change signals between the GCM and RCM simulations are related to a stronger warming projected by the GCM in the winter over the Baltic Sea catchment and in the summer over the Danube and Rhine catchments. Our results indicate that the main explanation for these differences is that the finer resolution of the RCM leads to a better representation of local scale processes at the surface that feed back to the atmosphere, i.e. an improved representation of the land sea contrast and related moisture transport processes over the Baltic Sea catchment, and an improved representation of soil moisture feedbacks to the atmosphere over the Danube and Rhine catchments.     

Parameterization of snow-free land surface albedo as a function of vegetation phenology based on MODIS data and applied in climate modelling

The aim of this study was to develop an advanced parameterization of the snow-free land surface albedo for climate modelling describing the temporal variation of surface albedo as a function of vegetation phenology on a monthly time scale. To estimate the effect of vegetation phenology on snow-free land surface albedo, remotely sensed data products from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the NASA Terra platform measured during 2001 to 2004 are used. The snow-free surface albedo variability is determined by the optical contrast between the vegetation canopy and the underlying soil surface. The MODIS products of the white-sky albedo for total shortwave broad bands and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) are analysed to separate the vegetation canopy albedo from the underlying soil albedo. Global maps of pure soil albedo and pure vegetation albedo are derived on a 0.5° regular latitude/longitude grid, re-sampling the high-resolution information from remote sensing-measured pixel level to the model grid scale and filling up gaps from the satellite data. These global maps show that in the northern and mid-latitudes soils are mostly darker than vegetation, whereas in the lower latitudes, especially in semi-deserts, soil albedo is mostly higher than vegetation albedo. The separated soil and vegetation albedo can be applied to compute the annual surface albedo cycle from monthly varying leaf area index. This parameterization is especially designed for the land surface scheme of the regional climate model REMO and the global climate model ECHAM5, but can easily be integrated into the land surface schemes of other regional and global climate models.     

Evaluation of the mineral exploration influence on sediment composition in the Gualaxo do Norte River Basin (MG-Brazil) based on geochemical and stratigraphic data

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of mining on the geochemical composition of the alluvial sediments of the Gualaxo do Norte River Basin, located in the eastern-southeastern portion of the Quadrilátero Ferrífero (Minas Gerais State, Brazil). The analysis of the sedimentological succession was carried out using 16 stratigraphic sections (cutbanks and alluvial terraces) and analysis of 111 sediment samples for major- and trace-elements by ICP-OES. The stratigraphic analysis revealed the deposition history of the collected sediments. Anomalous concentrations of certain elements such as As and Pb were found, which are associated with stratigraphic facies with evidences of gold artisanal mining, and Fe anomalies associated with iron ore mining. The classification of the sections was possible by means of principal component analysis. From the sediment characteristics, three groups were identified: (1) those influenced by iron ore mining and gold artisanal mining; (2) those influenced by iron ore mining and (3) those with no influence of human activities.     

Monazite behaviour during isothermal decompression in pelitic granulites: a case study from Dinggye,Tibetan Himalaya

Monazite is a key accessory mineral for metamorphic geochronology, but interpretation of its complex chemical and age zoning acquired during high-temperature metamorphism and anatexis remains a challenge. We investigate the petrology, pressure–temperature and timing of metamorphism in pelitic and psammitic granulites that contain monazite from the Greater Himalayan Crystalline Complex (GHC) in Dinggye, southern Tibet. These rocks underwent isothermal decompression from pressure of >10 kbar to ~5 kbar at temperatures of 750–830 °C, and recorded three metamorphic stages at kyanite (M₁), sillimanite (M₂) and cordierite-spinel grade (M₃). Monazite and zircon crystals were dated by microbeam techniques either as grain separates or in thin sections. U–Th–Pb ages are linked to specific conditions of mineral growth on the basis of zoning patterns, trace element signatures, index mineral inclusions (melt inclusions, sillimanite and K-feldspar) in dated domains and textural relationships with co-existing minerals. The results show that inherited domains (500–400 Ma) are preserved in monazite even at granulite-facies conditions. Few monazites or zircon yield ages related to the M₁-stage (~30–29 Ma), possibly corresponding to prograde melting by muscovite dehydration. During the early stage of isothermal decompression, inherited or prograde monazites in most samples were dissolved in the melt produced by biotite dehydration-melting. Most monazite grains crystallized from melt toward the end of decompression (M₃-stage, 21–19 Ma) and are chemically related to garnet breakdown reactions. Another peak of monazite growth occurred at final melt crystallization (~15 Ma), and these monazite grains are unzoned and are homogeneous in composition. In a regional context, our pressure–temperature–time data constrains peak high-pressure metamorphism within the GHC to ~30–29 Ma in Dinggye Himalaya. Our results are in line with a melt-assisted exhumation of the GHC rocks.     

Analyzing the spatial interactions between rainfall levels and flooding prediction in São Paulo

Rainfall is one of the primary triggers for many geological and hydrological natural disasters. While the geological events are related to mass movements in land collapse due to waterlogging, the hydrological ones are usually assigned to runoff or flooding. Studies in the literature propose predicting mass movement events as a function of accumulated rainfall levels recorded at distinct periods. According to these approaches, a two-dimensional rainfall levels feature space is segmented into the occurrence and non-occurrence decision regions by an empirical critical curve (CC). Although this scheme may easily be extended to other purposes and applications, studies in the literature need to discuss its use for flooding prediction. In light of this motivation, the present study is unfolded in (1) verifying that defining CCs in the rainfall levels feature space is a practical approach for flooding prediction and (2) analyzing how geospatial components interact with rainfall levels and flooding prediction. A database containing the rainfall levels recorded for flooding and non-flooding events in São Paulo city, Brazil, regarding the period 2015–2016, was considered in this study. The results indicate good accuracy for flooding prediction using only partial rain, which can be improved by adding physical characteristics of the flooding locations, demonstrating a direct correlation with spatial interactions, and rainfall levels.     

The Continuum Voronoi Block Model for simulation of fracture process in hard rocks

In this paper, a numerical model is presented to represent the fracture process in hard rocks based on a pseudo-discontinuum method called the Continuum Voronoi Block Model (CVBM). To validate this tool, numerical models for one Brazilian test, one unconfined compression test, and multiple triaxial compression tests with different confining stress were calibrated to match laboratory test results for Creighton granite. The model proved robust and matched the following macro-properties: crack initiation (CI) stress, (CD) stress, peak strength, tensile strength, Young's Modulus, and Poisson's ratio. The calibrated model served as a basis for a sensitivity study to analyze how micro-properties influence the rock's macroscopic responses. From the sensitivity study, a calibration methodology was proposed, which shall facilitate the use of the CVBM in future works.