Influence of mid-latitude circulation on upper Indus basin precipitation: the explicit role of irrigation

Since much of the flow of the Indus River originates in the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains, an understanding of weather characteristics leading to precipitation over the region is essential for water resources management. This study examines the influence of upper level mid-latitude circulation on the summer precipitation over upper Indus basin (UIB). Using reanalysis data, a geopotential height index (GH) is defined at 200 hPa over central Asia, which has a significant correlation with the precipitation over UIB. GH has also shown significant correlation with the heat low (over Iran and Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan), easterly shear of zonal winds (associated with central Asian high) and evapotranspiration (over UIB). It is argued that the geopotential height index has the potential to serve as a precursor for the precipitation over UIB. In order to assess the influence of irrigation on precipitation over UIB, a simplified irrigation scheme has been developed and applied to the regional climate model REMO. It has been shown that both versions of REMO (with and without irrigation) show significant correlations of GH with easterly wind shear and heat low. However contrary to reanalysis and the REMO version with irrigation, the REMO version without irrigation does not show any correlation between GH index and evapotranspiration as well as between geopotential height and precipitation over UIB, which is further confirmed by the quantitative analysis of extreme precipitation events over UIB. It is concluded that although atmospheric moisture over coastal Arabian sea region, triggered by wind shear and advected northward due to heat low, also contribute to the UIB precipitation. However for the availability of necessary moisture for precipitation over UIB, the major role is played by the evapotranspiration of water from irrigation. From the results it may also be inferred that the representation of irrigated water in climate models is unavoidable for studying the impact of global warming over the region.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Geochemistry constraints of Mesozoic–Cenozoic calc-alkaline magmatism in the South Shetland arc, Antarctica

Geochemical data from basalts, basaltic andesites, and andesites of the Mesozoic–Cenozoic (143–44 Ma) from Livingston, Greenwich, Robert, King George, and Ardley Islands of the South Shetland archipelago, Antarctica, are presented. The rocks have variable SiO₂ of approximately 46–61 wt%, Al₂O₃ of 15–26 wt%, and total alkali (K₂O+Na₂O) of 2–6 wt%. Most samples have low Mg#, Cr, and Ni, which indicates that they have undergone significant fractional crystallization from mantle-derived melts. The presence of olivine cumulatic in the samples from Livingston and Robert Islands explains some high MgO, Ni, and Cr values, whereas low Rb, Zr, and Nb values could be related to undifferentiated magmas. N-MORB-normalized trace element patterns show that South Shetland Islands volcanic rocks have a geochemical pattern similar to that found for other island arcs, with enrichment in LILE relative to HFSE and in LREE relative to HREE. The geochemistry pattern and presence of calcic plagioclase, orthopyroxene, Mg-olivine, and titanomagnetite phenocrysts suggest a source related to the subduction process. The geochemical data also suggest magma evolution from the tholeiitic to the calc-alkaline series; some samples show a transitional pattern. Samples from the South Shetland archipelago show moderate LREE/HREE ratios relative to N-MORB and OIB, depletion in Nb relative to Yb, and high Th/Yb ratios. These patterns probably reflect magma derived from a lithospheric mantle source previously modified by fluids and sediments from a subduction zone.

Resumo

Dados geoquímicos de basaltos, andesitos basálticos e andesitos mesozóicos–cenozóicos (143–44 Ma) das ilhas Livingston, Greenwich, Robert, King George e Ardley do Arquipélago Shetland do Sul, Antártica são discutidas neste artigo. As rochas tem conteúdos de SiO₂ variando de 46 a 61%, Al₂O₃ de 15 a 26% e álcalis (K₂O+Na₂O) de 2 a 6%. A maior parte das amostras tem conteúdos baixos de Mg#, Cr e Ni, indicando que sofreram significante cristalização fracionada de fusões derivadas do manto. A presença de fases cumuláticas nas amostras das ilhas Livingston e Robert explicaria os elevados valores de MgO, Ni, Cr, enquanto que baixos valores de Rb, Zr e Nb observados nas amostras destas ilhas poderiam estar relacionados a magmas não diferenciados. Os padrões de elementos-traço normalizados pelo N-MORB mostram que as rochas vulcânicas das Ilhas Shetland do Sul têm padrão geoquímico similar àqueles encontrados em outros arcos de ilhas com enriquecimento em LILE em relação aos HFSE e em ETRL em relação aos ETRP. O padrão geoquímico e a ocorrência de fenocristais de plagioclásio cálcico, ortopiroxênio, olivina magnesiana e titanomagnetita sugerem origem relacionada a processos de subducção. Dados geoquímicos obtidos para as amostras do arquipélago Shetland do Sul sugerem um magma evoluindo de toleítico para cálcico-alcalino, observando-se em algumas amostras um padrão transicional. As amostras do arquipélago Shetland do Sul mostram em relação ao N-MORB e OIB, moderadas razões ETRL/ETRP, empobrecimento em Nb relativo a Yb e elevada razão Th/Yb Estes padrões refletem, provavelmente, magma derivado de uma fonte mantélica litosférica, que foi modificada por fluídos e sedimentos da zona de subducção.     

Is the meander growth in the Brazil Current system off Southeast Brazil due to baroclinic instability?

Temporally-growing frontal meandering and occasional eddy-shedding is observed in the Brazil Current (BC) as it flows adjacent to the Brazilian Coast. No study of the dynamics of this phenomenon has been conducted to date in the region between 22° S and 25°S. Within this latitude range, the flow over the intermediate continental slope is marked by a current inversion at a depth that is associated with the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC). A time series analysis of 10-current-meter mooring data was used to describe a mean vertical profile for the BC-IWBC jet and a typical meander vertical structure. The latter was obtained by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that showed a single mode explaining 82% of the total variance. This mode structure decayed sharply with depth, revealing that the meandering is much more vigorous within the BC domain than it is in the IWBC region. As the spectral analysis of the mode amplitude time series revealed no significant periods, we searched for dominant wavelengths. This search was done via a spatial EOF analysis on 51 thermal front patterns derived from digitized AVHRR images. Four modes were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Modes 3 and 4, which together explained 18% of the total variance, are associated with 266 and 338-km vorticity waves, respectively. With this new information derived from the data, the [Johns, W.E., 1988. One-dimensional baroclinically unstable waves on the Gulf Stream potential vorticity gradient near Cape Hatteras. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 11, 323–350] one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model was applied to the interpolated mean BC-IWBC jet. The results indicated that the BC system is indeed baroclinically unstable and that the wavelengths depicted in the thermal front analysis are associated with the most unstable waves produced by the model. Growth rates were about 0.06 (0.05) days⁻¹for the 266-km (338-km) wave. Moreover, phase speeds for these waves were low compared to the surface BC velocity and may account for remarks in the literature about growing standing or stationary meanders off southeast Brazil. The theoretical vertical structure modes associated with these waves resembled very closely to the one obtained for the current-meter mooring EOF analysis. We interpret this agreement as a confirmation that baroclinic instability is an important mechanism in meander growth in the BC system.     

Do extrusion ages reflect magma generation processes at depth? An example from the Neogene Volcanic Province of SE Spain

The high-K calc-alkaline volcanic rocks along the Neogene Volcanic Province of SE Spain represent crustal anatectic melts mixed with mantle components during the opening of the Alborán Sea. Partially melted metapelitic enclaves, along with the geochemical signature, provide evidence of their crustal source. U–Pb SHRIMP geochronology on monazite and zircon from enclaves and their hosting lavas in the localities of El Hoyazo, Mazarrón and Mar Menor reveals variable delays between the melting at depth and the eruption of the volcanics. These data indicate that: (1) the most important event of anatexis in the Neogene spanned at least the 3 m.y. interval between 12 and 9 Ma; (2) there is no trend in age of crustal melting; and (3) the delay between magma generation and extrusion varies from more than 3 m.y. at El Hoyazo to ~0.5 m.y. and possibly 2.5 m.y. at Mar Menor, with no significant delay measurable at Mazarrón. The variable time delay between anatexis and lava extrusion indicates that radiometric ages of volcanics may provide misleading information on the timing of magma genesis occurring at depth. This highlights the pitfall of basing detailed geodynamic models on volcanic extrusion ages alone. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

A straightforward approach for using single time domain simulations to assess characteristic extreme responses

Short-term wave design approach of marine structures, using nonlinear time domain simulations, is a design procedure that is recognized by various modern standard codes. One of the most challenging points of this approach is the evaluation of the characteristic extreme values for response parameters used in the design check equations. The most straightforward and recommended way to evaluate a response characteristic value is by fitting an extreme value probability distribution to the N-sample of extreme values extracted from N independent time domain simulations with duration equal to the short-term period indicated by the code, which is usually taken as 3 h. However, this procedure would not be practical for some types of marine structures, such as risers and mooring lines, under numerous design load cases and demanding huge finite element models. A more feasible approach would be to assess the response extreme value distribution using only a single short-term time domain simulation with duration shorter than 3 h. But reduced time simulations always introduce some additional statistical uncertainty into the extreme values estimates. This paper discusses a workable way of properly taking into account the statistical uncertainty associated with the simulation length in the assessment of a characteristic short-term extreme response value based on a single time series.     

Rainwater chemistry and bulk atmospheric deposition in a tropical semiarid ecosystem: the Brazilian Caatinga

We assessed the rainwater chemistry, the potential sources of its main inorganic components and bulk atmospheric deposition in a rural tropical semiarid region in the Brazilian Caatinga. Rainfall samples were collected during two wet seasons, one during an extremely dry year (2012) and one during a year with normal rainfall (2013). According to measurements of the main inorganic ions in the rainwater (H⁺, Na⁺, NH₄ ⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl^?, NO₃ ^?, and SO₄ ^2?), no differences were observed in the total ionic charge between the two investigated wet seasons. However, Ca²⁺, K⁺, NH₄ ⁺ and NO₃ ^? were significant higher in the wetter year (p < 0.05) which was attributed to anthropogenic activities, such as organic fertilizer applications. The total ionic contents of the rainwater suggested a dominant marine contribution, accounting for 76 % and 58 % of the rainwater in 2012 and 2013, respectively. The sum of the non-sea-salt fractions of Cl^?, SO₄ ^2?, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺ and K⁺ were 19 % and 33 % in 2012 and 2013, and the nitrogenous compounds accounted for 2.8 % and 6.0 % of the total ionic contents in 2012 and 2013, respectively. The ionic ratios suggested that Mg²⁺ was probably the main neutralizing constituent of rainwater acidity, followed by Ca²⁺. We observed a low bulk atmospheric deposition of all major rainwater ions during both wet seasons. Regarding nitrogen deposition, we estimated slightly lower annual inputs than previous global estimates. Our findings contribute to the understanding of rainfall chemistry in northeastern Brazil by providing baseline information for a previously unstudied tropical semiarid ecosystem.     

Spectral density regression for bivariate extremes

We introduce a density regression model for the spectral density of a bivariate extreme value distribution, that allows us to assess how extremal dependence can change over a covariate. Inference is performed through a double kernel estimator, which can be seen as an extension of the Nadaraya–Watson estimator where the usual scalar responses are replaced by mean constrained densities on the unit interval. Numerical experiments with the methods illustrate their resilience in a variety of contexts of practical interest. An extreme temperature dataset is used to illustrate our methods.