Influence of mid-latitude circulation on upper Indus basin precipitation: the explicit role of irrigation

Since much of the flow of the Indus River originates in the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains, an understanding of weather characteristics leading to precipitation over the region is essential for water resources management. This study examines the influence of upper level mid-latitude circulation on the summer precipitation over upper Indus basin (UIB). Using reanalysis data, a geopotential height index (GH) is defined at 200 hPa over central Asia, which has a significant correlation with the precipitation over UIB. GH has also shown significant correlation with the heat low (over Iran and Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan), easterly shear of zonal winds (associated with central Asian high) and evapotranspiration (over UIB). It is argued that the geopotential height index has the potential to serve as a precursor for the precipitation over UIB. In order to assess the influence of irrigation on precipitation over UIB, a simplified irrigation scheme has been developed and applied to the regional climate model REMO. It has been shown that both versions of REMO (with and without irrigation) show significant correlations of GH with easterly wind shear and heat low. However contrary to reanalysis and the REMO version with irrigation, the REMO version without irrigation does not show any correlation between GH index and evapotranspiration as well as between geopotential height and precipitation over UIB, which is further confirmed by the quantitative analysis of extreme precipitation events over UIB. It is concluded that although atmospheric moisture over coastal Arabian sea region, triggered by wind shear and advected northward due to heat low, also contribute to the UIB precipitation. However for the availability of necessary moisture for precipitation over UIB, the major role is played by the evapotranspiration of water from irrigation. From the results it may also be inferred that the representation of irrigated water in climate models is unavoidable for studying the impact of global warming over the region.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Probing the Obscuring Medium Around Active Nuclei Using Masers: The Case of 3C 403

We report the first detection of a water megamaser in a radio-loud galaxy, 3C 403, and present a follow-up study using the VLA. 3C 403 has been observed as a part of a small sample of FR II galaxies with evidence of nuclear obscuration. The isotropic luminosity of the maser is 1200 L. With a recessional velocity of cz 17680 km s^–1 it is the most distant water maser so far reported. The line arises from the densest (> 10⁸ cm^–3) interstellar gas component ever observed in a radio-loud galaxy. Two spectral features are identified, likely bracketing the systemic velocity of the galaxy. Our interferometric data clearly indicate that these arise from a location within 0.1 (110 pc) from the active galactic nucleus. We conclude that the maser spots are most likely associated with the tangentially seen parts of a nuclear accretion disk, while an association with dense warm gas interacting with the radio jets cannot yet be ruled out entirely.     

Do extrusion ages reflect magma generation processes at depth? An example from the Neogene Volcanic Province of SE Spain

The high-K calc-alkaline volcanic rocks along the Neogene Volcanic Province of SE Spain represent crustal anatectic melts mixed with mantle components during the opening of the Alborán Sea. Partially melted metapelitic enclaves, along with the geochemical signature, provide evidence of their crustal source. U–Pb SHRIMP geochronology on monazite and zircon from enclaves and their hosting lavas in the localities of El Hoyazo, Mazarrón and Mar Menor reveals variable delays between the melting at depth and the eruption of the volcanics. These data indicate that: (1) the most important event of anatexis in the Neogene spanned at least the 3 m.y. interval between 12 and 9 Ma; (2) there is no trend in age of crustal melting; and (3) the delay between magma generation and extrusion varies from more than 3 m.y. at El Hoyazo to ~0.5 m.y. and possibly 2.5 m.y. at Mar Menor, with no significant delay measurable at Mazarrón. The variable time delay between anatexis and lava extrusion indicates that radiometric ages of volcanics may provide misleading information on the timing of magma genesis occurring at depth. This highlights the pitfall of basing detailed geodynamic models on volcanic extrusion ages alone. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Die Terrassen des Maintals bis zum Eintritt in die oberrheinische Tiefebene

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Spectral density regression for bivariate extremes

We introduce a density regression model for the spectral density of a bivariate extreme value distribution, that allows us to assess how extremal dependence can change over a covariate. Inference is performed through a double kernel estimator, which can be seen as an extension of the Nadaraya–Watson estimator where the usual scalar responses are replaced by mean constrained densities on the unit interval. Numerical experiments with the methods illustrate their resilience in a variety of contexts of practical interest. An extreme temperature dataset is used to illustrate our methods.     

A study of the geophysical response of distributed fibre optic acoustic sensors through laboratory‐scale experiments

In the past few years, distributed acoustic sensing has gained great interest in geophysics. This acquisition technology offers immense improvement in terms of efficiency when compared with current geophysical acquisition methods. However, the fundamentals of the measurement are still not fully understood because direct comparisons of fibre data with conventional geophysical sensors are difficult during field tests. We present downscaled laboratory experiments that enabled us to characterise the relationship between the signals recorded by conventional seismic point receivers and by distributed fibre optic sensors. Interrogation of the distributed optical fibre sensor was performed with a Michelson interferometer because this system is suited to compact test configurations, and it requires only a very simple data processing workflow for extracting the signal outputs. We show acoustic data that were recorded simultaneously by both the fibre optical interferometer and conventional three‐component accelerometers, thus enabling the comparison of sensor performance. We present results focused on the directionality of fibre measurements, on the amplitude variation with angle of incidence, and on the transfer function that allows accelerometer signals to be transformed into optical fibre signals. We conclude that the optical fibre response matches with the array of the displacement differences of the inline accelerometers deployed along the fibre length. Moreover, we also analysed the influence of various types of coupling and fibre cable coating on the signal responses, emphasising the importance of these parameters for field seismic acquisitions when using the distributed fibre optic technology.     

Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín,Colombia

A fully probabilistic seismic risk analysis using a comprehensive approach is conducted for Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, using a building by building database constructed and complemented from aerial images, considering characteristics such as building use categories, socio-economic levels and replacement values. The seismic hazard used for the analysis corresponds to the most updated study available in the country with the same model that was included in the national building code maps definition. Spectral transfer functions are determined for each of the seismic microzonation zones in order to take into account the dynamic soil response and amplification effects in the risk analysis. Several building types are defined for the city and individual vulnerability functions are assigned to each of them. Risk results are presented in the state of the art metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, probable maximum losses for different return periods, average annual losses and risk maps. The obtained results can be classified by use and socio-economic sectors as well as by structural systems that may help the stakeholders to identify where the risk concentrates.     

National Civil Protection Organization and technical activities in the 2012 Emilia earthquakes (Italy)

On May 2012, a severe seismic sequence occurred in the central part of the Po Plain (Northern Italy). It was characterized by two main shocks displaying local magnitudes 5.9 (on May 20th) and 5.8 (on May 29th), respectively; the maximum observed intensity was VII–VIII on the MCS scale. The emergency response was coordinated as usual by the Department of Civil Protection (DPC), within the general framework provided by the components and operational structures of the National Civil Protection Service. In addition to the search and rescue and to the population assistance activities, many technical activities were carried out to support the civil protection management of the recovery phase. Among these, mentioning is deserved by: the acquisition and dissemination of the accelerometric data from the National Accelerometric Network and the Seismic Observatory of the Structures, owned and operated by DPC; the evaluation of the liquefaction phenomena; the damage and building safety assessment; the regulations for the seismic safety assessment of industrial buildings, aimed at a rapid re-establishment of the productive activities; the actions undertaken following the evaluations by the Grandi Rischi Commission on the possible evolution of the seismic sequence. All these aspects will be examined under a civil protection perspective.