Holistic approach of GIS based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and WetSpass models to evaluate groundwater potential in Gelana watershed of Ethiopia

Appropriate quantification and identification of the groundwater distribution in a hydrological basin may provide necessary information for effective management, planning and development of groundwater resources. Groundwater potential assessment and delineation in a highly heterogeneous environment with limited Spatiotemporal data derived from Gelana watershed of Abaya Chamo lake basin is performed, using integrated multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), water and energy transfer between soil and plant and atmosphere under quasi-steady state (WetSpass) models. The outputs of the WetSpass model reveal a favorable structure of water balance in the basin studied, mainly using surface runoff. The simulated total flow and groundwater recharge are validated using river measurements and estimated baseflow at two gauging stations located in the study area, which yields a good agreement. The WetSpass model effectively integrates a water balance assessment in a geographical information system (GIS) environment. The WetSpass model is shown to be computationally reputable for such a remote complex setting as the African rift, with a correlation coefficient of 0.99 and 0.99 for total flow and baseflow at a significant level of p-value<0.05, respectively. The simulated annual water budget reveals that 77.22% of annual precipitation loses through evapotranspiration, of which 16.54% is lost via surface runoff while 6.24% is recharged to the groundwater. The calibrated groundwater recharge from the WetSpass model is then considered when determining the controlling factors of groundwater occurrence and formation, together with other multi-thematic layers such as lithology, geomorphology, lineament density and drainage density. The selected five thematic layers through MCDA are incorporated by employing the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method to identify the relative dominance in groundwater potential zoning. The weighted factors in the AHP are procedurally aggregated, based on weighted linear combinations to provide the groundwater potential index. Based on the potential indexes, the area then is demarcated into low, moderate, and high groundwater potential zones (GWPZ). The identified GWPZs are finally examined using the existing groundwater inventory data (static water level and springs) in the region. About 70.7% of groundwater inventory points are coinciding with the delineated GWPZs. The weighting comparison shows that lithology, geomorphology, and groundwater recharge appear to be the dominant factors influence on the resources potential. The assessment of groundwater potential index values identify 45.88% as high, 39.38% moderate, and 14.73% as low groundwater potential zones. WetSpass model analysis is more preferable in the area like Gelana watershed when the topography is rugged, inaccessible and having limited gauging stations.     

Geochemistry, Geochronology and Isotopic Evolution of the Chewore-Rufunsa Terrane, Southern Irumide Belt: a Mesoproterozoic Continental Margin Arc

The southern Irumide Belt (SIB) is an ENE–WSW-trending,late Mesoproterozoic orogenic belt located between the Congo–Tanzania–Bangweulu(CTB) and Kalahari cratons in central southern Africa. It isseparated from the late Mesoproterozoic Irumide Belt (IB) tothe north by Permo-Triassic graben, raising the possibilitythat the younger rifts reactivated a suture between the twobelts that has been rendered cryptic as a result of youngerKaroo cover. Both belts are dominated by calc-alkaline gneisses,but in addition the SIB contains abundant metavolcanic and metasedimentaryrocks. In this study we present detailed geochemical, isotopicand geochronological data for volcanic and plutonic lithologiesfrom the southernmost part of the SIB, the Chewore–RufunsaTerrane. This terrane comprises a wide variety of supracrustalto mid-crustal rocks that have major- and trace-element compositionssimilar to magmas formed in present-day subduction zones. Chondrite-normalizedrare earth element (REE) profiles and whole-rock Sm–Ndisotope compositions indicate that the parental supra-subductionmelts interacted with, and were contaminated by sialic continentalcrust, implying a continental-margin-arc setting. Secondaryionization mass spectrometry dating of magmatic zircon has yieldedcrystallization ages between c. 1095 and 1040 Ma, similar toelsewhere in the SIB. U–Pb dating and in situ Lu–Hfisotopic analyses of abundant xenocrystic zircon extracted fromthe late Mesoproterozoic granitoids indicate that the contaminantcontinental basement was principally Palaeoproterozoic in ageand had a juvenile isotopic signature at the time of its formation.These data are in contrast to those for the IB, which is characterizedby younger, c. 1020 Ma, calc-alkaline gneisses that formed bythe direct recycling of Archaean crust without significant additionof any juvenile material. We suggest that the SIB developedby the subduction of oceanic crust under the margin of an unnamedcontinental mass until ocean closure at c. 1040 Ma. Subsequentcollision between the SIB and the CTB margin led to the cessationof magmatism in the SIB and the initiation of compression andcrustal melting in the IB. KEY WORDS: geochemistry; Mesoproterozoic; SHRIMP zircon U–Pb dating; Sm–Nd isotopes; Southern Irumide Belt     

Natural recolonization of a productive tropical pond: Day to day variations in the photosynthetic parameters

Chlorophyll pigments (CHL), primary productivity (PP) and particulate nitrogen (N_p) in relation to several environmental factors were monitored during planktonic colonization of an aquaculture pond (Layo, Côte d'Ivoire). How interactions between the organisms are established in an initially azoic environment were investigated. From March, 15 (D1) to March, 31 (D16), the system transformation went through three stages. First, a precolonization by heterotrophic microbial community from D1 to D2 (N_p < 1 m maximum at D2: 243 mg m^–2; CHL around 0). Then, a pioneer microalgal community developped from D3 to D7 (maximum CHL on D6: 19 mg m^–2; PP: 1.0 g C m^–2 d^–1) with a significant contribution of picoplankton (CHL and PP < 3 m: 33 and 23% of the total, respectively). Finally, a second microalgal colonization was noticed from D9 to D12 (maximum CHL: 55 mg m^–2, PP: 2.8 g C m^–2 d^–1), largely dominated by nanoplankton (CHL and PP > 3 m: 95 and 99% of the total, respectively). Overall, photosynthetic activity appeared to be closely linked to algal biomass. The study of autotrophic biomass and activity in different size classes in relation to the other parameters allowed us to precise the origin of the biomass fluctuations. The first bloom appeared to be controlled by selective grazing on small algae. The second algal development ended when N requirement represented at least 69% of N supply (in the N — NH₄ form). This control was enhanced by the appearance of rotifers, leading to a more complex equilibrium.     

Mercury content of mussels from the St. Lawrence Estuary and northwestern Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada

A first survey of the mercury content of intertidal mussels in the St. Lawrence Estuary and part of the Gulf of St. Lawrence shows means values ranging from 0.160 to 0.629 ppm (dry weight). Highest values (grand mean 0.430 ppm) were found in the upper part of the lower estuary, lowest values (grand mean 0.172 ppm) on the north shore of the estuary and Gulf, and intermediate values along the Gaspé Peninsula. The results indicate a decreasing gradient in mercury levels from the mouth of the Saguenay Fjord seaward.     

Wet Fault or Dry Fault? A Laboratory Approach to Remotely Monitor the Hydro-Mechanical State of a Discontinuity Using Controlled-Source Seismics

Stress variation and fluid migration occur in deformation zones, which are expected to affect seismic waves reflected off or propagating across such structures. We developed a basic experimental approach to monitor the mechanical coupling with respect to seismic coupling across a single discontinuity between a granite sample in contact with a steel platen. Piezoceramics located on the platen were used to both generate and record the P and S wave fields reflected off the discontinuity at normal incidence. This way, normal (B _n ) and tangential (B _t ) compliances were calculated using Schoenberg’s linear slip theory (Schoenberg, J Acoust Soc Am 68:1516–1521, 1980) when the roughness, the effective pressure (P _eff, up to 200 MPa), and the nature of the filling (gas or water) vary. We observe that increasing the effective pressure decreases B _n and B _t , which is interpreted as the effect of the closure of the voids at the interface, permitting more seismic energy to be transmitted across the interface. Values of B _n are significantly higher than those of B _t at low P _eff (<60–80 MPa) in dry conditions, and significantly drop under water-saturated conditions. The water filling the voids therefore helps to transmit the seismic energy of compressional waves across the interface. These results show that the assumption B _n  ≈ B _t commonly found in some theoretical approaches does not always stand. The ratio B _n /B _t actually reflects the type of saturating fluids and the effective pressure, in agreement with other experimental studies. However, we illustrate that only the relative variations of this ratio seem to be relevant, not its absolute value as suggested in previous studies. Consequently, the use of B _n against B _t plots may allow effective pressure variation and the nature of the pore fluid to be inferred. In this respect, this experimental approach at sample scale helps to pave the way for remotely monitoring in the field the hydro-mechanical state of deformation zones, such as seismogenic faults, fractured reservoirs, or lava conduits.     

Investigation of Schumann resonance polarization parameters

The Earth–ionosphere cavity is characterized by a number of disturbances which cause departures from the behaviour expected for the spherical symmetric case usually applied in model calculations. The main effects are the inhomogeneity of the upper atmosphere which is characterised by different conductivity profiles during day and night, and the conductivity anisotropy introduced by the Earths magnetic field. Standing waves, excited by the global thunderstorm activity, with an eigenfrequency of ≈8 Hz develop in this cavity. This phenomenon, which is called Schumann resonance, suffers a frequency splitting due to the removal of the spherical symmetry.At the Institut für Geophysik we measured the electromagnetic field components for a whole year at frequencies up to 20 Hz. We present the results of the analysis of the polarization of individual events of the horizontal magnetic field components. With the help of the polarization parameters as indicators, we show the existence of the aforementioned splitting. A frequency difference of 0.1–0.2 Hz between the two elliptical modes has been estimated.     

Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.     

Comparison of the Hill–Siscoe polar cap potential theory with the Weimer and AMIE models

The magnetic storm on November 2004 was characterized by a high solar wind pressure and thus offers a unique opportunity to test the Hill–Siscoe formula (H–S) for the polar cap potential (PCP). To estimate the polar cap potential, we use the Weimer Statistical Convection Model (WCM), and the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics Model (AMIE), based on ingestion of a number of data sets. H–S is in excellent agreement with WCM, and with AMIE during times when DMSP is used in the latter. The implication is that the AMIE conductivity model yields conductivities that are too high by a factor of 2–3. Both H–S and WCM display saturation effects, although WCM is more severe. The two methods track well until an IEF of about 20 mV/m occurs, where H–S continues to increase while WCM levels off. Even at high electric field values, the pressure increases the denominator of the H–S formula by 60%, keeping the potential lower than its saturation value. There are several H–S points above 250 kV, even up to 400 kV, that are not found in WCM and occur right after a rapid transition from B_z north to south. For B_z north, we find evidence for a saturation effect on the PCP at large IEF, little effect as a function of solar wind velocity, and an increase of the PCP with increasing pressure. This seems to rule out viscous interaction but may involve geometric changes in the high-altitude polar cusp that affect recombination there for B_z north.