Spatially explicit models for exploring COVID‐19 lockdown strategies

This article describes two spatially explicit models created to allow experimentation with different societal responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic. We outline the work to date on modeling spatially explicit infective diseases and show that there are gaps that remain important to fill. We demonstrate how geographical regions, rather than a single, national approach, are likely to lead to better outcomes for the population. We provide a full account of how our models function, and how they can be used to explore many different aspects of contagion, including: experimenting with different lockdown measures, with connectivity between places, with the tracing of disease clusters, and the use of improved contact tracing and isolation. We provide comprehensive results showing the use of these models in given scenarios, and conclude that explicitly regionalized models for mitigation provide significant advantages over a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach. We have made our models, and their data, publicly available for others to use in their own locales, with the hope of providing the tools needed for geographers to have a voice during this difficult time.     

A probabilistic framework for improving reverse geocoding output

Reverse geocoding, which transforms machine‐readable GPS coordinates into human‐readable location information, is widely used in a variety of location‐based services and analysis. The output quality of reverse geocoding is critical because it can greatly impact these services provided to end‐users. We argue that the output of reverse geocoding should be spatially close to and topologically correct with respect to the input coordinates, contain multiple suggestions ranked by a uniform standard, and incorporate GPS uncertainties. However, existing reverse geocoding systems often fail to fulfill these aims. To further improve the reverse geocoding process, we propose a probabilistic framework that includes: (1) a new workflow that can adapt all existing address models and unitizes distance and topology relations among retrieved reference data for candidate selections; (2) an advanced scoring mechanism that quantifies characteristics of the entire workflow and orders candidates according to their likelihood of being the best candidate; and (3) a novel algorithm that derives statistical surfaces for input GPS uncertainties and propagates such uncertainties into final output lists. The efficiency of the proposed approaches is demonstrated through comparisons to the four commercial reverse geocoding systems and through human judgments. We envision that more advanced reverse geocoding output ranking algorithms specific to different application scenarios can be built upon this work.     

Effects of pulsed nutrient inputs on phytoplankton assemblage structure and blooms in an enclosed coastal area

The response of phytoplankton assemblage structure to terrestrial nutrient inputs was examined for the Gulf of Kalloni in the Northern Aegean Sea, a productive semi-enclosed coastal marine ecosystem. The study was focused on a typical annual cycle, and emphasis was placed on the comparative analysis between blooms developing after significant nutrient inputs from the watershed, and naturally occurring blooms. Baseline information was collected on a monthly basis from a network of stations located in the oligotrophic open sea and the interior and more productive part of the embayment. Intensive sampling was also carried out along a gradient in the vicinity of a river which was the most important source of freshwater and nutrient input for the Gulf. Phytoplankton assemblage structure was analyzed from 188 samples using diversity indices (Shannon and Average Taxonomic Distinctness), multivariate plotting methods (NMDS), multivariate statistics (PERMANOVA), and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). Three characteristic assemblages were recognized: (1) an autumn assemblage developed under nutrient depleted conditions, having low diversity due to the dominance of two small diatoms, (2) a winter bloom of the potentially toxic species Pseudo-nitzschia calliantha occurring immediately after a nutrient peak and characterized by very low diversity, and (3) a naturally occurring early summer bloom of centric diatoms with relatively high diversity. The results of the study support the view that moderate nutrient inputs may have a beneficial effect on the functioning of coastal ecosystems, stimulating the taxonomic diversity through the growth of different taxonomic groups and taxa. On the other hand, a sudden pulse of high nutrient concentrations may greatly affect the natural succession of organisms, have a negative effect on the diversity through the dominance of a single species, and can increase the possibility of a harmful algal bloom development.     

Multibeam sonar backscatter data processing

Multibeam sonar systems now routinely record seafloor backscatter data, which are processed into backscatter mosaics and angular responses, both of which can assist in identifying seafloor types and morphology. Those data products are obtained from the multibeam sonar raw data files through a sequence of data processing stages that follows a basic plan, but the implementation of which varies greatly between sonar systems and software. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of this backscatter data processing chain, with a focus on the variability in the possible implementation of each processing stage. Our objective for undertaking this task is twofold: (1) to provide an overview of backscatter data processing for the consideration of the general user and (2) to provide suggestions to multibeam sonar manufacturers, software providers and the operators of these systems and software for eventually reducing the lack of control, uncertainty and variability associated with current data processing implementations and the resulting backscatter data products. One such suggestion is the adoption of a nomenclature for increasingly refined levels of processing, akin to the nomenclature adopted for satellite remote-sensing data deliverables.     

Combining pixel and object based image analysis of ultra-high resolution multibeam bathymetry and backscatter for habitat mapping in shallow marine waters

Habitat mapping data are increasingly being recognised for their importance in underpinning marine spatial planning. The ability to collect ultra-high resolution (cm) multibeam echosounder (MBES) data in shallow waters has facilitated understanding of the fine-scale distribution of benthic habitats in these areas that are often prone to human disturbance. Developing quantitative and objective approaches to integrate MBES data with ground observations for predictive modelling is essential for ensuring repeatability and providing confidence measures for habitat mapping products. Whilst supervised classification approaches are becoming more common, users are often faced with a decision whether to implement a pixel based (PB) or an object based (OB) image analysis approach, with often limited understanding of the potential influence of that decision on final map products and relative importance of data inputs to patterns observed. In this study, we apply an ensemble learning approach capable of integrating PB and OB Image Analysis from ultra-high resolution MBES bathymetry and backscatter data for mapping benthic habitats in Refuge Cove, a temperate coastal embayment in south-east Australia. We demonstrate the relative importance of PB and OB seafloor derivatives for the five broad benthic habitats that dominate the site. We found that OB and PB approaches performed well with differences in classification accuracy but not discernible statistically. However, a model incorporating elements of both approaches proved to be significantly more accurate than OB or PB methods alone and demonstrate the benefits of using MBES bathymetry and backscatter combined for class discrimination.     

Fuel optimization for low-thrust Earth–Moon transfer via indirect optimal control

The problem of designing low-energy transfers between the Earth and the Moon has attracted recently a major interest from the scientific community. In this paper, an indirect optimal control approach is used to determine minimum-fuel low-thrust transfers between a low Earth orbit and a Lunar orbit in the Sun–Earth–Moon Bicircular Restricted Four-Body Problem. First, the optimal control problem is formulated and its necessary optimality conditions are derived from Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. Then, two different solution methods are proposed to overcome the numerical difficulties arising from the huge sensitivity of the problem’s state and costate equations. The first one consists in the use of continuation techniques. The second one is based on a massive exploration of the set of unknown variables appearing in the optimality conditions. The dimension of the search space is reduced by considering adapted variables leading to a reduction of the computational time. The trajectories found are classified in several families according to their shape, transfer duration and fuel expenditure. Finally, an analysis based on the dynamical structure provided by the invariant manifolds of the two underlying Circular Restricted Three-Body Problems, Earth–Moon and Sun–Earth is presented leading to a physical interpretation of the different families of trajectories.     

Distribution of aliphatic amines in CO,CV, and CK carbonaceous chondrites and relation to mineralogy and processing history

The analysis of water‐soluble organic compounds in meteorites provides valuable insights into the prebiotic synthesis of organic matter and the processes that occurred during the formation of the solar system. We investigated the concentration of aliphatic monoamines present in hot acid water extracts of the unaltered Antarctic carbonaceous chondrites, Dominion Range (DOM) 08006 (CO3) and Miller Range (MIL) 05013 (CO3), and the thermally altered meteorites, Allende (CV3), LAP 02206 (CV3), GRA 06101 (CV3), Allan Hills (ALH) 85002 (CK4), and EET 92002 (CK5). We have also reviewed and assessed the petrologic characteristics of the meteorites studied here to evaluate the effects of asteroidal processing on the abundance and molecular distributions of monoamines. The CO3, CV3, CK4, and CK5 meteorites studied here contain total concentrations of amines ranging from 1.2 to 4.0 nmol g^?1 of meteorite; these amounts are 1–3 orders of magnitude below those observed in carbonaceous chondrites from the CI, CM, and CR groups. The low‐amine abundances for CV and CK chondrites may be related to their extensive degree of thermal metamorphism and/or to their low original amine content. Although the CO3 meteorites, DOM 08006 and MIL 05013, do not show signs of thermal and aqueous alteration, their monoamine contents are comparable to those observed in moderately/extensively thermally altered CV3, CK4, and CK5 carbonaceous chondrites. The low content of monoamines in pristine CO carbonaceous chondrites suggests that the initial amounts, and not asteroidal processes, play a dominant role in the content of monoamines in carbonaceous chondrites. The primary monoamines, methylamine, ethylamine, and n‐propylamine constitute the most abundant amines in the CO3, CV3, CK4, and CK5 meteorites studied here. Contrary to the predominance of n‐ω‐amino acid isomers in CO3 and thermally altered meteorites, there appears to be no preference for the larger n‐amines.     

Mineralogy and petrogenesis of lunar magnesian granulitic meteorite Northwest Africa 5744

Lunar meteorite Northwest Africa (NWA) 5744 is a granulitic breccia with an anorthositic troctolite composition that may represent a distinct crustal lithology not previously described. This meteorite is the namesake and first‐discovered stone of its pairing group. Bulk rock major element abundances show the greatest affinity to Mg‐suite rocks, yet trace element abundances are more consistent with those of ferroan anorthosites. The relatively low abundances of incompatible trace elements (including K, P, Th, U, and rare earth elements) in NWA 5744 could indicate derivation from a highlands crustal lithology or mixture of lithologies that are distinct from the Procellarum KREEP terrane on the lunar nearside. Impact‐related thermal and shock metamorphism of NWA 5744 was intense enough to recrystallize mafic minerals in the matrix, but not intense enough to chemically equilibrate the constituent minerals. Thus, we infer that NWA 5744 was likely metamorphosed near the lunar surface, either as a lithic component within an impact melt sheet or from impact‐induced shock.     

Time distributions in satellite constellation design

The aim of the time distribution methodology presented in this paper is to generate constellations whose satellites share a set of relative trajectories in a given time, and maintain that property over time without orbit corrections. The model takes into account a series of orbital perturbations such as the gravitational potential of the Earth, the atmospheric drag, the Sun and the Moon as disturbing third bodies and the solar radiation pressure. These perturbations are included in the design process of the constellation. Moreover, the whole methodology allows to design constellations with multiple relative trajectories that can be distributed in a minimum number of inertial orbits.     

Reproduction in the sea pen Funiculina quadrangularis (Anthozoa: Pennatulacea) from the west coast of Scotland

The sea pen Funiculina quadrangularis (Pallas, 1766) is a species of conservation concern in Scottish coastal waters, due to its restricted geographical distribution and high sensitivity to demersal fishing activities. Reproduction in F. quadrangularis was investigated in a population located in southern Loch Linnhe, west Scotland. This was accomplished through the analysis of trends in oocyte size-frequency distribution and relative fecundity over a 12-month period. Funiculina quadrangularis is dioecious and the study population exhibited a sex ratio of 1:1. Oogenesis in female F. quadrangularis is characterised by the maintenance of a large pool of asynchronously developing oocytes throughout the year, of which a small proportion (<10%) mature with increasing sychronicity and are spawned in midwinter. The reasons for this distinct pattern of oogenesis and winter spawning remain unclear, although the potential influence of environmental cues and the role of endogenous factors in relation to this sea pen's deep-sea habit are discussed. Whilst the duration of oogenesis is prolonged (>12 months), it is proposed that spawning is a brief and synchronous annual event. Relative fecundity is high and is independent of colony size, varying between approximately 500–2000 oocytes per 1 cm rachial midsection. This measure of fecundity exhibited pronounced seasonality and was significantly lower during the post-spawning winter months. Total fecundity in F. quadrangularis is considered to be high; although a small proportion of the total number of oocytes is spawned annually, this is compensated for by large colony size. Funiculina quadrangularis produces large oocytes (>800 μm), indicative of the production of lecithotrophic larvae.