Assessment of microscale economic flood losses in urban and agricultural areas: case study of the Santa Bárbara River,Ecuador

Natural Hazards - To reduce and prevent significant economic flood losses, reliable tools are required to estimate potential river inundation effects. This paper focuses on the estimation of direct...     

Exploring seven hundred years of transhumance,climate dynamic,fire and human activity through a historical mountain pass in central Spain

A high-altitude peat sequence from the heart of the Spanish Central System (Gredos range) was analysed through a multi-proxy approach to determine the sensitivity of high-mountain habitats to climate, fire and land use changes during the last seven hundred years, providing valuable insight into our understanding of the vegetation history and environmental changes in a mountain pass close to a traditional route of transhumance. The pollen data indicate that the vegetation was dominated by shrublands and grasslands with scattered pines in high-mountain areas, while in the valleys cereals, chestnut and olive trees were cultivated. Strong declines of high-mountain pines percentages are recorded at 1540, 1675, 1765, 1835 and 1925 cal AD, which may be related to increasing grazing activities and/or the occurrence of anthropogenic fires. The practice of mountain summer farming and transhumance deeply changed and redesigned the landscape of the high altitudes in central Spain (Gredos range) since the Middle Ages, although its dynamics was influenced in some way by climate variability of the past seven centuries.     

The use of invariant manifolds for transfers between unstable periodic orbits of different energies

Techniques from dynamical systems theory have been applied to the construction of transfers between unstable periodic orbits that have different energies. Invariant manifolds, trajectories that asymptotically depart or approach unstable periodic orbits, are used to connect the initial and final orbits. The transfer asymptotically departs the initial orbit on a trajectory contained within the initial orbit’s unstable manifold and later asymptotically approaches the final orbit on a trajectory contained within the stable manifold of the final orbit. The manifold trajectories are connected by the execution of impulsive maneuvers. Two-body parameters dictate the selection of the individual manifold trajectories used to construct efficient transfers. A bounding sphere centered on the secondary, with a radius less than the sphere of influence of the secondary, is used to study the manifold trajectories. A two-body parameter, κ, is computed within the bounding sphere, where the gravitational effects of the secondary dominate. The parameter κ is defined as the sum of two quantities: the difference in the normalized angular momentum vectors and eccentricity vectors between a point on the unstable manifold and a point on the stable manifold. It is numerically demonstrated that as the κ parameter decreases, the total cost to complete the transfer decreases. Preliminary results indicate that this method of constructing transfers produces a significant cost savings over methods that do not employ the use of invariant manifolds.     

The Monahans chondrite and halite: Argon‐39/argon‐40 age,solar gases,cosmic‐ray exposure ages,and parent body regolith neutron flux and thickness

Abstract— The Monahans H‐chondrite is a regolith breccia containing light and dark phases and the first reported presence of small grains of halite. We made detailed noble gas analyses of each of these phases. The ³⁹Ar‐⁴⁰Ar age of Monahans light is 4.533 ± 0.006 Ma. Monahans dark and halite samples show greater amounts of diffusive loss of ⁴⁰Ar and the maximum ages are 4.50 and 4.33 Ga, respectively. Monahans dark phase contains significant concentrations of He, Ne and Ar implanted by the solar wind when this material was extant in a parent body regolith. Monahans light contains no solar gases. From the cosmogenic ³He, ²¹Ne, and ³⁸Ar in Monahans light we calculate a probable cosmic‐ray, space exposure age of 6.0 ± 0.5 Ma. Monahans dark contains twice as much cosmogenic ²¹Ne and ³⁸Ar as does the light and indicates early near‐surface exposure of 13–18 Ma in a H‐chondrite regolith. The existence of fragile halite grains in H‐chondrites suggests that this regolith irradiation occurred very early. Large concentrations of ³⁶Ar in the halite were produced during regolith exposure by neutron capture on ³⁵Cl, followed by decay to ³⁶Ar. The thermal neutron fluence seen by the halite was (2–4) × 10¹⁴ n/cm². The thermal neutron flux during regolith exposure was ～0.4‐0.7 n/cm²/s. The Monahans neutron fluence is more than an order of magnitude less than that acquired during space exposure of several large meteorites and of lunar soils, but the neutron flux is lower by a factor of ≤5. Comparison of the ³⁶Ar_n/²¹Ne_cos ratio in Monahans halite and silicate with the theoretically calculated ratio as a function of shielding depth in an H‐chondrite regolith suggests that irradiation of Monahans dark occurred under low shielding in a regolith that may have been relatively shallow. Late addition of halite to the regolith can be ruled out. However, irradiation of halite and silicate for different times at different depths in an extensive regolith cannot be excluded.     

Radar observations of asteroid 1998 ML14

Abstract— Goldstone and Arecibo delay‐Doppler radar imaging of asteroid 1998 ML 14 shortly after its discovery reveals a 1 km diameter spheroid with prominent topography on one side and subdued topography on the other. The object's radar and optical properties are typical for S‐class near‐Earth asteroids. The gravitational slopes of a shape model derived from the images and assumed to have a uniform density are shallow, exceeding 30° over only 4% of the surface. If 1998 ML14's density distribution is uniform, then its orbital environment is similar to a planetary body with a spheroidal gravitational field and is relatively stable. Integration of a radar‐refined orbit reveals that the 1998 apparition was the asteroid's closest approach to Earth since at least 1100 and until 2283, when it approaches to within 2.4 lunar distances. Outside of that time interval, orbit uncertainties based on the present set of observations preclude reliable prediction.     

Water Cooperation Priorities in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin Based on Cooperative Events Since the Mekong River Commission Establishment

The Lancang-Mekong River has attracted much attention from researchers, but the cooperation on water issues in this river basin has been limited, even after the establishment of the Mekong River Commission(MRC). Cooperation on water resources has been determined as one of the key priority areas in the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism, but there are no details of targets. In order to establish the priorities of water cooperation under the mechanism, we adopted nine categories to classify the objectives of 87 water cooperation events based on the ‘Lancang-Mekong Water Cooperative Events Database' from 1995 to 2015. Based on the occurrence of cooperative events, cooperative objectives, cooperative scales, and approaches to cooperation, we conducted statistical, correlation, and text analyses. Our analyses indicated the following results: under the impact of economic conditions inside and outside the river basin, full cooperation appeared more difficult than bilateral and multilateral cooperation. Each of the partners adopted different preferences for cooperation targets. Cooperation with more definite objectives was easier to establish than cooperation with broader and more complex objectives. The potential objectives for water cooperation were navigation, hydropower, joint management, data sharing, flood control and water use. Because hydropower development is controversial, and because water cooperation is avoided by most existing regional cooperation mechanisms due to its complexity, we suggest the following priority areas for water cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin. 1) Navigation and flood control/drought relief are attractive objectives for all the riparian countries across the whole watershed. 2) Data sharing should be a priority for cooperation in the watershed due to its laying the foundation for the equitable and reasonable utilization of transboundary waters. 3) Hydropower is an objective best implemented mainly through bilateral cooperation, and on tributaries.     

Recursive computation of mutual potential between two polyhedra

Recursive computation of mutual potential, force, and torque between two polyhedra is studied. Based on formulations by Werner and Scheeres (Celest Mech Dyn Astron 91:337–349, 2005) and Fahnestock and Scheeres (Celest Mech Dyn Astron 96:317–339, 2006) who applied the Legendre polynomial expansion to gravity interactions and expressed each order term by a shape-dependent part and a shape-independent part, this paper generalizes the computation of each order term, giving recursive relations of the shape-dependent part. To consider the potential, force, and torque, we introduce three tensors. This method is applicable to any multi-body systems. Finally, we implement this recursive computation to simulate the dynamics of a two rigid-body system that consists of two equal-sized parallelepipeds.     

Fitting the integrated spectral energy distributions of galaxies

Fitting the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies is an almost universally used technique that has matured significantly in the last decade. Model predictions and fitting procedures have improved significantly over this time, attempting to keep up with the vastly increased volume and quality of available data. We review here the field of SED fitting, describing the modelling of ultraviolet to infrared galaxy SEDs, the creation of multiwavelength data sets, and the methods used to fit model SEDs to observed galaxy data sets. We touch upon the achievements and challenges in the major ingredients of SED fitting, with a special emphasis on describing the interplay between the quality of the available data, the quality of the available models, and the best fitting technique to use in order to obtain a realistic measurement as well as realistic uncertainties. We conclude that SED fitting can be used effectively to derive a range of physical properties of galaxies, such as redshift, stellar masses, star formation rates, dust masses, and metallicities, with care taken not to over-interpret the available data. Yet there still exist many issues such as estimating the age of the oldest stars in a galaxy, finer details of dust properties and dust-star geometry, and the influences of poorly understood, luminous stellar types and phases. The challenge for the coming years will be to improve both the models and the observational data sets to resolve these uncertainties. The present review will be made available on an interactive, moderated web page (), where the community can access and change the text. The intention is to expand the text and keep it up to date over the coming years.     

Measurement of the radius of Mercury by radio occultation during the MESSENGER flybys

The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft completed three flybys of Mercury in 2008–2009. During the first and third of those flybys, MESSENGER passed behind the planet from the perspective of Earth, occulting the radio-frequency (RF) transmissions. The occultation start and end times, recovered with 0.1 s accuracy or better by fitting edge-diffraction patterns to the RF power history, are used to estimate Mercury's radius at the tangent point of the RF path. To relate the measured radius to the planet shape, we evaluate local topography using images to identify the high-elevation feature that defines the RF path or using altimeter data to quantify surface roughness. Radius measurements are accurate to 150 m, and uncertainty in the average radius of the surrounding terrain, after adjustments are made from the local high at the tangent point of the RF path, is 350 m. The results are consistent with Mercury's equatorial shape as inferred from observations by the Mercury Laser Altimeter and ground-based radar. The three independent estimates of radius from occultation events collectively yield a mean radius for Mercury of 2439.2±0.5 km.     

Study of bi-orthogonal modes in magnetic butterflies

We present a bi-orthogonal decomposition of the temporal and latitudinal distribution of solar magnetic fields from synoptic magnetograms. Results are compared with a similar decomposition of the distribution of sunspots since 1874. We show that the butterfly diagrams can be interpreted as the result of approximately constant amplitudes and phases of two oscillations with periods close to 22 years. A clear periodicity of 7 years can also be identified in the most energetic modes of both spatio-temporal series. These results can be used to obtain relevant information concerning the physics of the solar dynamo.