A hybrid approach to modeling territorial control in violent armed conflicts

Territorial control is central to the understanding of violent armed conflicts, yet reliable and valid measures of this concept do not exist. We argue that geospatial analysis provides an important perspective to measure the concept. In particular, measuring territorial control can be seen as an application of calculating service areas around points of control. The modeling challenge is acute for areas with limited road infrastructure, where no complete network is available to perform the analysis, and movements largely occur off road. We present a new geospatial approach that applies network analysis on a hybrid transportation network with both actual road data and hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data representing on‐road and off‐road movements, respectively. Movement speed or restriction can be readily adjusted using various input data. Simulating off‐road movement with hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data has a number of advantages including scalability to small or large study areas and flexibility to allow all‐directional travel. We apply this method to measuring territorial control of armed groups in Sub‐Saharan Africa where inferior transport infrastructure is the norm. Based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Data (GED) as well as spatial data on terrain, population locations, and limited transportation networks, we enhance the delineation of the specific areas directly controlled by each warring party during civil wars within a given travel time.     

Important considerations about space‐time data: Modeling,scrutiny, and ratification

Space‐time data are becoming more abundant as time goes by, with hands‐on interest in them becoming more prevalent. These data have a very sensitive ordering in space and time, one that the simplest of recording errors can scramble. These data are also complex, containing both spatial and temporal autocorrelation coupled with their interaction. One goal of many researchers is to disentangle and account for these autocorrelation components in a parsimonious way. This article presents three competing model specifications to achieve this end. In addition, it outlines seven best practices for vetting space‐time datasets. This article cites a publicly available corrupt (containing at least errors of omission) rabies dataset to illustrate how a large volume of potentially valuable data can be rendered meaningless. In addition, it exemplifies postulated contentions about the United States National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program’s 1969–2018 population‐by‐county dataset, a collection of population counts held in high esteem. One major empirical finding is that this particular dataset exhibits traits that may merit remedial revisions action. A key conceptual finding is a suggested set of best practices for space‐time data proofreading. These two findings contribute to an ultimate goal of a large collection of certified open access space‐time datasets supporting repeatable and replicable scientific analyses.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167498711400067X

The Proterozoic Bamble Sector, South Norway, is one of the world＇s classic amphiboliteto granulite- facies transition zones. It is characterized by a well-developed isograd sequence, with isolated ＇granulite-facies islands＇ in the amphibolite-facies portion of the transition zone. The area is notable for the discovery of C02-dominated fluid inclusions in the granolite-facies rocks by Jacques Touter in the late 1960＇s, which triggered discussion of the role of carbonic fluids during granulite genesis. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of the Bamble Sector, with an emphasis on the Arendal-Froland-Nelaug-Tvedestrand area and off shore islands （most prominantly Tromay and Hisoy） where the transition zone is best developed. After a brief overview of the history of geological research and mining in the area, aspects of sedimentary, metamorphic and magmatic petrology of the Bamble Sector are discussed, including the role of fluids. Issues relevant to current geotectonic models for SW Scandinavia, directly related to the Bamble Sector, are discussed at the end of the review.     

Field characterization and data integration to define the hydraulic heterogeneity of a shallow granular aquifer at a sub-watershed scale

Providing a sound basis for aquifer management or remediation requires that hydrogeological investigations carried out to understand groundwater flow and contaminant transport be based on representative data that capture the heterogeneous spatial distribution of aquifer hydraulic properties. This paper describes a general workflow allowing the characterization of the heterogeneity of the hydraulic properties of granular aquifers at an intermediate scale of a few km². The workflow involves characterization and data integration steps that were applied on a 12-km² study area encompassing a decommissioned landfill emitting a leachate plume and its main surface water receptors. The sediments composing the aquifer were deposited in a littoral–sublittoral environment and show evidence of small-scale transitional heterogeneities. Cone penetrometer tests (CPT) combined with soil moisture and electrical resistivity (SMR) measurements were thus used to identify and characterize spatial heterogeneities in hydraulic properties over the study area. Site-specific statistical relationships were needed to infer hydrofacies units and to estimate hydraulic properties from high-resolution CPT/SMR soundings distributed all over the study area. A learning machine approach was used due to the complex statistical relationships between colocated hydraulic and CPT/SMR data covering the full range of aquifer materials. Application of this workflow allowed the identification of hydrofacies units and the estimation of horizontal hydraulic conductivity, vertical hydraulic conductivity and porosity over the study area. The paper describes and discusses data acquisition and integration methodologies that can be adapted to different field situations, while making the aquifer characterization process more time-efficient and less labor-intensive.     

Social and economic vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise and extreme flooding

This paper assesses the socioeconomic consequences of extreme coastal flooding events. Wealth and income impacts associated with different social groups in coastal communities in Israel are estimated. A range of coastal flood hazard zones based on different scenarios are identified. These are superimposed on a composite social vulnerability index to highlight the spatial variation in the socioeconomic structure of those areas exposed to flooding. Economic vulnerability is captured by the exposure of wealth and income. For the former, we correlate the distribution of housing stock at risk with the socioeconomic characteristics of threatened populations. We also estimate the value of residential assets exposed under the different scenarios. For the latter, we calculate the observed change in income distribution of the population under threat of inundation. We interpret the change in income distribution as an indicator of recovery potential.     

Does stress transmission in forelands depend on structural style? Distinctive stress magnitudes during Sevier thin‐skinned and Laramide thick‐skinned layer‐parallel shortening in the Bighorn Basin (USA) revealed by stylolite and calcite twinning paleopiezometry

The Sheep Mountain‐Little Sheep Mountain Anticlines, Bighorn Basin (USA) formed as basement‐cored Laramide structures in the formerly undeformed foreland of the thin‐skinned Sevier orogen. We take advantage of the well‐constrained microstructural network there to reconstruct differential stress magnitudes that prevailed during both Sevier and Laramide layer‐parallel shortening (LPS), before the onset of large‐scale folding. Differential stress magnitudes determined from tectonic stylolites are compared and combined to previous stress estimates from calcite twinning paleopiezometry in the same formations. During stress loading related to LPS, differential stress magnitudes transmitted from the distant Sevier thin‐skinned orogen into the sedimentary cover of the Bighorn basin (11–43 MPa) are higher than the differential stress magnitudes accompanying the early stage of LPS related to the thick‐skinned Laramide deformation (2–19 MPa). This study illustrates that the tectonic style of an orogen affects the transmission of early orogenic stress into the stable continental interior.     

Learning soil parameters and updating geotechnical reliability estimates under spatial variability – theory and application to shallow foundations

ABSTRACT

Field data is commonly used to determine soil parameters for geotechnical analysis. Bayesian analysis allows combining field data with other information on soil parameters in a consistent manner. We show that the spatial variability of the soil properties and the associated measurements can be captured through two different modelling approaches. In the first approach, a single random variable (RV) represents the soil property within the area of interest, while the second approach models the spatial variability explicitly with a random field (RF). We apply the Bayesian concept exemplarily to the reliability assessment of a shallow foundation in a silty soil with spatially variable data. We show that the simpler RV approach is applicable in cases where the measurements do not influence the correlation structure of the soil property at the vicinity of the foundation. In other cases, it is expected to underestimate the reliability, and a RF model is required to obtain accurate results.     

Deep inside a neoproterozoic intra-oceanic arc: growth,differentiation and exhumation of the Amalaoulaou complex (Gourma,Mali)

We show here that the Amalaoulaou complex, in the Pan-African belt of West Africa (Gourma, Mali), corresponds to the lower and middle sections of a Neoproterozoic intra-oceanic arc. This complex records a 90–130-Ma-long evolution of magmatic inputs and differentiation above a subducting oceanic slab. Early c. 793 Ma-old metagabbros crystallised at lower crustal or uppermost mantle depths (25–30 km) and have geochemical characteristic of high-alumina basalts extracted from a depleted mantle source slightly enriched by slab-derived sedimentary components ((La/Sm)_N < 1; ε_Nd: +5.4–6.2; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr: 0.7027–0.7029). In response to crustal thickening, these mafic rocks were recrystallised into garnet-granulites (850–1,000°C; 10–12 kbar) and subject to local dehydration–melting reactions, forming trondhjemititic leucosomes with garnet–clinopyroxene–rutile residues. Slightly after the granulitic event, the arc root was subject to strong HT shearing during partial exhumation (detachment faults/rifting or thrusting), coeval with the emplacement of spinel- and garnet-pyroxenite dykes crystallised from a high-Mg andesitic parental magma. Quartz and hornblende-gabbros (700–660 Ma) with composition typical of hydrous volcanic rocks from mature arcs ((La/Sm)_N: 0.9–1.8; ε_Nd: +4.6 to +5.2; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr: 0.7028–0.7031) were subsequently emplaced at mid-arc crust levels (~15 km). Trace element and isotopic data indicate that magmas tapped a depleted mantle source significantly more enriched in oceanic sedimentary components (0.2%). Exhumation occurred either in two stages (700–660 and 623 Ma) or in one stage (623 Ma) with a final exhumation of the arc root along cold P-T path (550°C, 6–9 kbar; epidote–amphibolite and greenschist facies conditions) during the main Pan-African collision event (620–580 Ma). The composition of magmas forming the Cryogenian Amalaoulaou arc and the processes leading to intra-arc differentiation are strikingly comparable to those observed in the deep section of exposed Mezosoic oceanic arcs, namely the Kohistan and Talkeetna complex. This evolution of the Amalaoulaou oceanic arc and its accretion towards the West African craton belong to the life and closure of the Pharusian Ocean that eventually led to the formation of the Greater Gondwana supercontinent, a similar story having occurred on the other side of the Sahara with the Mozambique Ocean.     

Synchrotron IR study of hydrous ringwoodite (γ-Mg2SiO4) up to 30 GPa

High-pressure synchrotron infrared (IR) absorption spectra were collected between 650 and 4,000 cm⁻¹ at ambient temperature for hydrous Mg-ringwoodite (γ-Mg₂SiO₄) up to 30 GPa. The main feature in the OH⁻ stretching region is an extremely broad band centred at 3,150 cm⁻¹. The hydrogen bond is strong for most protons and the most probable site for protonation is the tetrahedral edge. With increasing pressure, this band shifts downward while decreasing its integrated intensity until disappearance at a pressure of 25 GPa. Only one band at 2,450 cm⁻¹ and an absorption plateau persist with a maximum wavenumber of 3,800 cm⁻¹. This behaviour is reversible upon pressure release. We interpret this as a second-order phase transition occurring in hydrated Mg-ringwoodite at high pressure (beyond ∼ 25 GPa). This result is compatible with the observation by Kleppe et al. (Phys Chem Miner 29:473–476, 2002a) who suggested the presence of Si–O–Si linkages and/or partial increase in the coordination of Si. Beyond the phase transition, the protons are delocalized and their environment on the ringwoodite structure is probably quite different from that at low pressure. Data obtained in situ at high pressures and temperatures are needed to better understand the effect of protonation on the structure and to better constrain this phase transition.