Spatially explicit models for exploring COVID‐19 lockdown strategies

This article describes two spatially explicit models created to allow experimentation with different societal responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic. We outline the work to date on modeling spatially explicit infective diseases and show that there are gaps that remain important to fill. We demonstrate how geographical regions, rather than a single, national approach, are likely to lead to better outcomes for the population. We provide a full account of how our models function, and how they can be used to explore many different aspects of contagion, including: experimenting with different lockdown measures, with connectivity between places, with the tracing of disease clusters, and the use of improved contact tracing and isolation. We provide comprehensive results showing the use of these models in given scenarios, and conclude that explicitly regionalized models for mitigation provide significant advantages over a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach. We have made our models, and their data, publicly available for others to use in their own locales, with the hope of providing the tools needed for geographers to have a voice during this difficult time.     

Network analysis to inform invasive species spread among lakes

Often facilitated by human-mediated pathways,aquatic invasive species are a threat to the health and biodiversity of global ecosystems.We present a novel approach incorporating survey data of watercraft movement in a social network analysis to reconstruct potential pathways of aquatic invasive species spread between lakes.As an example,we use the green alga Nitellopsis obtusa,also known as starry stonewort,an aquatic invasive species affecting the Great Lakes region in the United States and Canada.The movement of algal fragments via human-mediated pathways(i.e.,watercraft)has been hypothesized as the primary driver of starry stonewort invasion.We used survey data collected at boat ramps during the 2013 and 2014 openwater seasons to describe the flow of watercraft from Lake Koronis,where N.obtusa was first detected in Minnesota,to other lakes in the state.Our results suggest that the risk of N.obtusa expansion is not highly constrained by geographic proximity and management efforts should consider highly connected lakes.Estimating human movement via network analysis may help to explain past and future routes of aquatic invasive species infestation between lakes and can improve evidence-based prevention and control efforts.     

Network analysis to inform invasive species spread among lakes

Often facilitated by human-mediated pathways,aquatic invasive species are a threat to the health and biodiversity of global ecosystems.We present a novel approach incorporating survey data of watercraft movement in a social network analysis to reconstruct potential pathways of aquatic invasive species spread between lakes.As an example,we use the green alga Nitellopsis obtusa,also known as starry stonewort,an aquatic invasive species affecting the Great Lakes region in the United States and Canada.The movement of algal fragments via human-mediated pathways(i.e.,watercraft)has been hypothesized as the primary driver of starry stonewort invasion.We used survey data collected at boat ramps during the 2013 and 2014 openwater seasons to describe the flow of watercraft from Lake Koronis,where N.obtusa was first detected in Minnesota,to other lakes in the state.Our results suggest that the risk of N.obtusa expansion is not highly constrained by geographic proximity and management efforts should consider highly connected lakes.Estimating human movement via network analysis may help to explain past and future routes of aquatic invasive species infestation between lakes and can improve evidence-based prevention and control efforts.     

Water Cooperation Priorities in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin Based on Cooperative Events Since the Mekong River Commission Establishment

The Lancang-Mekong River has attracted much attention from researchers, but the cooperation on water issues in this river basin has been limited, even after the establishment of the Mekong River Commission(MRC). Cooperation on water resources has been determined as one of the key priority areas in the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism, but there are no details of targets. In order to establish the priorities of water cooperation under the mechanism, we adopted nine categories to classify the objectives of 87 water cooperation events based on the ‘Lancang-Mekong Water Cooperative Events Database' from 1995 to 2015. Based on the occurrence of cooperative events, cooperative objectives, cooperative scales, and approaches to cooperation, we conducted statistical, correlation, and text analyses. Our analyses indicated the following results: under the impact of economic conditions inside and outside the river basin, full cooperation appeared more difficult than bilateral and multilateral cooperation. Each of the partners adopted different preferences for cooperation targets. Cooperation with more definite objectives was easier to establish than cooperation with broader and more complex objectives. The potential objectives for water cooperation were navigation, hydropower, joint management, data sharing, flood control and water use. Because hydropower development is controversial, and because water cooperation is avoided by most existing regional cooperation mechanisms due to its complexity, we suggest the following priority areas for water cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin. 1) Navigation and flood control/drought relief are attractive objectives for all the riparian countries across the whole watershed. 2) Data sharing should be a priority for cooperation in the watershed due to its laying the foundation for the equitable and reasonable utilization of transboundary waters. 3) Hydropower is an objective best implemented mainly through bilateral cooperation, and on tributaries.     

Specifying a joint space- and time-lag using a bivariate Poisson distribution

Separate space- or time-lags have been considered regularly in data analyses; as space–time models are more recently being studied extensively in data analytic fashion, joint estimation of both lags has to be considered explicitly. This paper addresses this issue, taking into special consideration parametric parsimony together with specification richness; use of the bivariate Poisson frequency distribution is advocated and applied to an empirical case. The relation of this approach to random effects specifications is investigated. Data for Belgian regional products constitute the empirical case study.

The effect of chlorine and chlorine dioxide on pathogenic free‐living amoebae (PFLA) in simulated natural conditions: The presence of bacteria and organic matter

Bacteria and bovine faecal matter were introduced into cultures of pathogenic free‐living amoebae, with chlorine or chlorine dioxide. The bacteria and faeces were to simulate natural conditions for a more exacting test of disinfectant demand when compared to axenic conditions. Both chlorine and chlorine dioxide were effective disinfectants under all conditions tested. Axenically and monoxenically cultured amoebae were used, the latter exerted a greater disinfectant demand.     

The application of remote sensing to environmental archaeology

An area in the Fenlands of Eastern England was used to assess the spectral, spatial, and seasonal requirements of airborne multispectral data for identifying wetland archaeological features by detecting crop and soil marks. Ordination of data from a scanner with 11 spectral channels was achieved using the Sheffield method, which calculates the wavebands that produce a 3 band composite image with optimum contrast using band variances and interband correlations. the spatial detail requirements for multispectral data were investigated by applying an edge enhancing filter to single waveband images. the loss of feature clarity with increased levels of spatial smoothing is visually apparent. Seasonal variation in crop mark visibility was quantified by cross tabulating feature visibility in fields known to contain features with time period and sensor type. If remote sensing is to be used for repeated operational archaeological survey then the quality and quantity of information which can be gained from the data must be evaluated. This study attempts to define some of the necessary operational requirements for the use of multispectral data for archaeology.     

Time distributions in satellite constellation design

The aim of the time distribution methodology presented in this paper is to generate constellations whose satellites share a set of relative trajectories in a given time, and maintain that property over time without orbit corrections. The model takes into account a series of orbital perturbations such as the gravitational potential of the Earth, the atmospheric drag, the Sun and the Moon as disturbing third bodies and the solar radiation pressure. These perturbations are included in the design process of the constellation. Moreover, the whole methodology allows to design constellations with multiple relative trajectories that can be distributed in a minimum number of inertial orbits.     

Sedimentary facies,production rates and facies models for recent coralline algal gravels,Co. Galway,Ireland

Five sedimentary facies are described from SCUBA diving examination and sampling of Mannin Bay, Ireland. A Bank facies is built up by the unattached coralline algae Lithothamnium corallioides and Phymatolithon calcareum. This autochthonous facies occurs in shallow sheltered environments. In exposed areas a rippled Clean Algal Gravel facies is found composed of coralline and molluscan debris. In intermediate energy areas a Muddy Algal Gravel facies is found with small amounts of live corallines. Sheltered creeks have a Mud facies which is partly carbonate and partly terrigenous. The shallow water coralline algal sediments are overlapped by a Fine Sand facies of mixed biogenic composition. Each facies is characterized by particular phenotypic growth forms of the unattached corallines. Rates of organic calcium carbonate production are obtained which are found to be similar to rates from shallow tropical non-reef environments. The carbonate sediments of Mannin Bay are compared with similar sediments from Kilkerrin Bay. Ireland, from Brittany and from Falmouth Harbour. From these comparisons, facies models are proposed for these carbonate sediments. The major factor controlling facies distribution is coastal morphology. The present day shelf is considered to be too exposed to preserve complete sequences of the shallow water sediments.     

The crystal structure of Ca5(PO4)2SiO4 (Silico-Carnotite)

Summary The crystal structure of Ca₅(PO₄)₂SiO₄ (silico-carnotite) has been determined from 3358 x-ray diffraction data collected by a counter method and has been refined toR _w =0.038,R=0.045, in space group Pnma. The unit cell parameters area=6.737 (1) Å,b=15.508 (2) Å andc=10.132 (1) Å at 24°C;Z=4. The observed density is 3.06 and the calculated density is 3.03 g · cm^–3. The crystal contains about 2.5% V₂O₅ as an impurity. The bond lengths within the tetrahedral anions suggest that substitution or disorder of PO₄ ^3–, SiO₄ ^4– and possibly VO₄ ^3– occurs among the anion sites. The structure has some relationship to that of Ca₅(PO₄)₃OH, the predominant inorganic phase in the human body, but suggests that the Ca₅(PO₄)₃OH type structure may not be stable without some of the OH positions being filled. Ca₅(PO₄)₂SiO₄ is more closely related to K₃Na(SO₄)₂ (glaserite) if it is considered that there are systematic cation vacancies in Ca₅(PO₄)₂SiO₄.This type of structure is consistent with the view that cation vacancies in the glaserite-type structure account for solid solutions between Ca₂SiO₄ and Ca₃(PO₄)₂ and between Ca₃(PO₄)₂ and CaNaPO₄.

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Die Kristallstruktur vonCa ₅(PO ₄)₂ SiO ₄ (Silicocarnotit)

Zusammenfassung Die Kristallstruktur von Ca₅(PO₄)₂SiO₄ (Silicocarnotit) wurde aus 3358 Röntgendiffraktometer-Daten bestimmt und in Raumgruppe Pnma aufR _w =0,038,R=0,045 verfeinert. Die Gitterkonstanten (bei 24° C) sind:a=6,737 (1) Å,b=15,508 (2) Å undc=10,132 (1) Å,Z=4; D_obs.=3,06 g · cm^–3, D_exp.=3,03 g · cm^–3. Der Kristall enthält etwa 2,5% V₂O₅ als Verunreinigung. Die Bindungslängen in den tetraedrischen Anionen legen nahe, daß unter den Anionenplätzen gegenseitige Vertretung oder Unordnung von PO₄ ^3–, SiO₄ ^4– und möglicherweise VO₄ ^3– auftritt. Die Struktur zeigt einige Verwandtschaft zu der von Ca₅(PO₄)₃OH, der wichtigsten anorganischen Substanz im menschlichen Körper, weist aber darauf hin, daß eine Struktur vom Ca₅(PO₄)₃OH-Typ ohne Besetzung eines Teiles der OH-Position nicht stabil ist. Ca₅(PO₄)₂SiO₄ zeigt engere Beziehungen zu K₃Na(SO₄)₂ (Glaserit), wenn man berücksichtigt, daß in Ca₅(PO₄)₃SiO₄ systematische Kationen-Leerstellen sind. Dieser Strukturtyp ist mit derAuffassung in Übereinstimmung, daß Kationenleerstellen für die festen Lösungen zwischen Ca₂SiO₄ und Ca₃(PO₄)₂ und zwischen Ca₃(PO₄)₂ und CaNaPO₄ verantwortlich sind.

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With 9 Figures