RECOGNISING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUANTIFICATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE

A widely used method of evaluating effects of climate change on flow regime is to perturb the climate inputs to a rainfall–runoff model and examine the effect on a statistic of the modelled flows. Such studies require four elements: a method of perturbing the climate, a rainfall–runoff model, a study catchment and a flow index. In practice the direction and magnitude of the estimated effects depend on each of the four elements, leading to concern over the usefulness and generality of the results. To investigate these uncertainties two climate scenarios and eight climate sensitivity tests have been applied to three UK catchments using two conceptual rainfall–runoff models in order to quantify effects of climate change on three flow indices representing mean runoff, flood magnitudes and low flows. The sensitivity tests were found to be useful to assess the suitability of the models to simulate flows outside the conditions experienced in their calibration. Both models gave internally consistent results but, on close examination, one model was found inappropriate for this application. Results show that the effect of climate change on flow varies between catchments and that different flow response indices can change in opposite directions, e.g. floods increased in magnitude while low flows reduced. Contrasting results were obtained from the two climate scenarios.     

Effects of meteorology and land use on ambient measurements of primary pollutants in Córdoba city, Argentina

Summary The atmospheric concentrations of several primary species: NO, NO₂, NO_x, CO, SO₂, reactive hydrocarbons (ROG) and other 15 atmospheric and meteorological variables have been measured at several locations in Córdoba city, Argentina since June 1995. The measurements are carried out using two mobile stations to cover several important areas of Córdoba. The objective of this work is to estimate the effects of meteorology and urban structure on the air quality levels for this city using simple statistics. We analyze the correlation between primary pollutants (CO and NO_x) and site locations of the air quality monitoring stations (AQMS) during the whole 1995 field campaign. In this study we take the measured data for primary pollutants and group them by location and time of the year. The results of this work may be useful to forecast air pollution episodes. Also we can get indirect information about emissions and maybe identify source characteristics. Once the influences of topography, meteorology, and land use will be fully characterized, the existing monitoring data will be used to do air quality modeling analysis and to select monitoring locations. The use of mobile stations instead of stationary ones at this stage is justified because of limited funding. Therefore, it is a valid option to decide in the future the additional instrumentation required to characterize completely the atmospheric urban area.With 5 Figures     

On the heat budget of the Arabian Sea

Summary The rate of oceanic heat storage of the upper 200m of the Arabian Sea is explained in terms of net air-sea heat flux (Q _F), heat change due to horizontal divergence and vertical motion (Q _V) and heat change due to lateral advection (Q _A). The analysis revealed that the heat storage of the Arabian Sea is mainly controlled byQ _V while the effect ofQ _A is much larger than expected. Parameterisation of summer cooling revealed that the depletion of energy from the mixed layer is mainly due to upwelling and horizontal advection though large amount of heat is accumulated due to net air-sea heat flux. The annual heat balance of the upper 200m of the Arabian Sea suggested large heat gain by air-sea exchange processes. About two third of this heat gain is compensated by horizontal advection and one third by vertical advection.With 4 Figures     

Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Plumes from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska Oil Fields

Large carbon dioxide plumes with concentrations up to 45 ppm aboveambient levels were measured about 15 km downwind of the Prudhoe Bay, Alaskamajor oil production facilities, located at 70° N Lat. above the ArcticCircle. The measured emissions were 1.3 × 10³ metrictons (C) hour^-1 (11.4× 10⁶ metric tons(C) year^-1), six times greater than the combustion emissionsassumed by Jaffe and coworkers in J. Atmos. Chem. 20 (1995), 213–227,based on 1989 reported Prudhoe Bay oil facility fuel consumption data, andfour times greater than the total C emissions reported by the oil facilitiesfor the same months as the measurement time periods. Variations in theemissions were estimated by extrapolating the observed emissions at a singlealtitude for all tundra research transect flights conducted downwind of theoil fields. These 30 flights yielded an average emission rate of1.02 × 10³ metric tons (C) hour^-1 with astandard deviation of 0.33 × 10³. These quantity ofemissions are roughly equivalent to the carbon dioxide emissions of7–10 million hectares of arctic tussock tundra (Oechel and Vourlitis,Trends in Ecol. Evolution 9 (1994), 324–329).     

Mechanical aspects of sedimentary basin formation: development of integrated models for lithospheric and surface processes

Different assumptions for the thermo-mechanical properties of the lithosphere strongly affect predictions inferred from quantitative sedimentary basin modeling. Examples from various basins, selected as natural laboratories, illustrate the importance of incorporating a finite strength of the extending lithosphere in forward stratigraphic modeling of large-scale basin stratigraphy. Current models can effectively couple erosion at uplifted rift shoulders of extensional basins with the basin fill architecture of the subsiding basin compartments. Modeling of the synrift strata integrates spatial scales characteristic for subbasins, such as the Oseberg field in the North Sea, with large-scale lithospheric properties characterizing the bulk strength of extending lithosphere. Modeling of compressional basins in foreland fold-and-thrust-belt settings can effectively link lithospheric flexure with surface processes. Scales pertinent to short-term spatial and temporal variations in basin fill and basin deformation can now be addressed, allowing the quantitative investigation of consequences of different modes of thrusting for basin fill geometry and facies characteristics.     

Aquatic hydrocarbon distributions in the Seine estuary: Biogenic polyaromatics and n-alkanes

Dissolved and particulate hydrocarbons of biogenic origin were investigated for the first time in surface waters along the Seine River and its estuary. They comprise n-alkanes (n-ALKs) and diagenetic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Samples were collected in three different sections of the estuary: the riverine zone, the mixing zone, and the marine zone. At the river mouth, two mooring stations were used for the collection of samples over tidal cycles. Total particulate n-ALK concentrations ranged from 31 ng 1^?1 to 2,918 ng 1^?1, or 5 μg g^?1 dry ng 1^?1, or 2 μg g^?1 of SM. Concentrations varied with the SM load and could be related to sedimentation and estuarine mixing. The sources of the n-ALKs were different in each zone of the estuary. The dissolved n-ALKs displayed lower concentrations than the particulate phase, varying from 136 ng 1^?1 to 344 ng 1^?1, while biogenic dissolved PAHs were almost absent.     

Climatic significance of natric horizons in Permian (Asselian) palaeosols of north-central Kansas, USA

Columnar structured horizons have been recognized in ancient coastal palaeosols of several Lower Permian (Asselian) stratigraphic units of north-central Kansas. These strongly developed columnar, polygonal-shaped peds are characteristic of sodium-influenced (natric) argillic horizons, and are commonly indicative of semi-arid to arid environments. Evaporite features above and below these palaeosols support the conclusion for a dry palaeoclimate. The columnar peds are typically 3–15 cm in diameter and exhibit domed tops. Fine clay fills the cracks between the columnar peds, and is generally of a darker colour than the peds. Each natric horizon has a low value and chroma colour, apparently the result of carbonate accumulation. The natric horizons in these Permian palaeosols appear to have been partially influenced by sodium-rich groundwaters. Root traces and root moulds are found between peds in all natric horizons, indicating plant succession after columnar ped formation. These sodium-influenced palaeosol profiles occur as part of a spectrum of palaeosol types that indicate cyclical climate change associated with glacioeustatic sea-level fluctuations.     

Deep-sea avulsion and morphosedimentary evolution of the Rhône Fan Valley and Neofan during the Late Quaternary (north-western Mediterranean Sea)

The Petit-Rhône Fan Valley (north-western Mediterranean) is a broad, sinuous, filled valley that is deeply incised by a narrow, sinuous thalweg. The valley fill is differentiated into three seismic subunits on high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles. The lower chaotic subunit probably consists of channel lag deposits that seem to be in lateral continuity with high-amplitude reflections representing levee facies. The intermediate transparent subunit, which has an erosional base and clearly truncates levee deposits, is interpreted to be mass-flow deposits resulting from the disintegration of the fan-valley flanks. The upper bedded subunit shows an overall lens-shaped geometry and the seismic reflections onlap either onto the top of the underlying transparent subunit or onto the Rhône levees. Piston core data show that the upper few meters of this upper subunit consist of thin turbidites, probably deposited by overflow processes. The few available ¹⁴C ages suggest that the upper stratified subunit filled the Petit-Rhône Fan Valley between 21 and 11 kyr BP. The upper bedded subunit is deposited within the Petit-Rhône Fan Valley downslope of a major decrease in slope gradient. This upper subunit and the thalweg are genetically related and represent a small channel/levee system confined within the fan valley. Previous studies interpreted this thalweg to be an erosional feature resulting from a recent avulsion of the major channel course. Our interpretation implies that the thalweg is not a purely erosional feature but a depositional/erosional channel. This small channel/levee system is superimposed on a large muddy channel/levee system after the sediment supply changed from thick muddy flows during the main phase of aggradation of the Rhône Fan levees, to thin, mixed (sand and mud) flows at the end of Isotope Stage 2 (～16–18 ka BP). The pre-existing morphology of the Petit-Rhône Fan Valley played a determinant role in the sediment dispersal leading to the creation of this small and confined channel/levee system. These mixed flows have undergone flow stripping resulting from the changes in the slope gradient along the thalweg course. The finer sediment overflowed from the thalweg and were deposited in the Petit-Rhône Fan Valley. Coarser channelled sediment remaining in the thalweg were deposited as a ‘sandy’lobe (Neofan). As indicated by ¹⁴C dating, sedimentation on this lobe continued until very recently, suggesting a further evolution of the turbidity flows from small mixed flows to small sandy flows. the deposition of this study lobe and the sedimentary fill of the Petit-Rhône Fan Valley may be related to widespread shelf edge and canyon wall failures with a resulting downslope evolution of failed sediment into turbidity currents.     

Evolution of late Triassic rift basin evaporites (Passaic Formation): Newark Basin, Eastern North America

The Passaic Formation of the late Triassic Newark Supergroup is 2700 m thick and was deposited in series of wide, deep to shallow lacustrine environments in the Newark rift basin (eastern North America). The Passaic Formation can be divided into lower, middle, and upper sections based on depositional structures, composition and the distribution and morphology of its evaporites. Evaporites formed as a result of syndiagenetic cementation and/or displacive processes. Evaporitive minerals now include gypsum and anhydrite, although other mineral species, such as glauberite, may have originally existed. Most of the evaporites of the Passaic Formation occur within massive red mudstone and siltstone lithologies in the form of diffuse cements, void-fillings, euhedral crystals, crystal clusters and nodules. These evaporites grew displacively within the fine siliciclastic matrix as a result of changes in the hydrochemical regimes of the rift basin. A well-developed upward increase in the amount of evaporite material is present in the Passaic Formation. This resulted from: (1) long-term, progressive increase in aridity, and (2) significant increase in evaporation surface area of the basin during its tectonic evolution. A nonmarine source for the evaporites is evident from the isotopic data. Sulphate δ³⁴S ranges from 11%. to 3.3%. CDT, while δ¹⁸O ranges from + 15.1%. to + 20.9%. SMOW, indicating derivation from early diagenetic oxidation of organic sulphur and pyrite within the organic-rich, lacustrine deposits. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios in sulphate are radiogenic (average 0.71211), showing the interaction of basin waters with detrital components and that the Newark Basin was isolated from the world ocean. Most of the original evaporites show evidence of diagenetic change to polycrystalline and polymineralic pseudomorphs now filled with recrystallized coarse-grained anhydrite (1–3 mm size) and low-temperature albite. Homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions within the coarse-grained anhydrite indicate crystallization temperatures for anhydrite in the range of 150° to 280°C. Such elevated temperatures resulted from circulation of hot water in the basin. Later exhumation of these rocks caused partial to total replacement of anhydrite by gypsum in the upper part of the section. The resulting increase in volume due to hydration of anhydrite at shallow depths also emplaced non-evaporative satin-spar veins (fibrous gypsum) along bedding planes and in fractures. While the local geology of the Newark rift basin controlled the distribution of facies, the sedimentological development of the Passaic Formation evaporites resulted from the world-wide climatic aridity that prevailed during the late Triassic. because the Newark Basin sequence was only covered with about 3 km of sedimentary overburden that correspond to about 100°C and hence suggests that evaporites have experienced alteration by hot fluids. 5 As the Triassic marks the greatest evaporite formation world-wide and profound sense of parched continentality throughout the world existed before the final break-up of the Pangea, the Passaic Formation evaporites are an example of the influence of these palaeoclimatic conditions at the eastern margin of North America.