Flat microwave spectra seen at X-class flares

We report peculiar spectral activity of four large microwave bursts as obtained from the Solar Arrays at the Owens Valley Radio Observatory during observations of X-class flares on 1990 May 24 and 1991 March 7, 8, and 22. Main observational points that we newly uncovered are: (1) flat flux spectra over 1–18 GHz in large amounts of flux ranging from 10² to 10⁴ s.f.u. at the maximum phase, (2) a common evolutionary pattern in which the spectral region of dominant flux shifts from high frequencies at the initial rise to low frequencies at the decaying phase, and (3) unusual time profiles that are impulsive at high frequencies but more extended at lower frequencies.In an attempt to elucidate these new properties, we carry out the model calculations of microwave spectra under assumptions of gyrosynchrotron mechanism and a dipole field configuration to reproduce the observational characteristics. Our results are summarized as follows. First, a flat microwave spectrum reaching up to 10²–10⁴ s.f.u. may occur in a case where a magnetic loop is extended to an angular size of (0.7–7.0) × 10^–7 sterad and contains a huge number (N(E > 10 keV) 10³⁶– 10³⁸) of nonthermal electrons with power-law index 3–3.5 over the entire volume. Second, the observed spectral activity could adequately be accounted for by the shrinking of the region of nonthermal electrons to the loop top and by the softening of the power-law spectrum of electrons in a time scale ranging 3–45 min depending on the event. Third, the extended microwave activity at lower frequencies is probably due to electrons trapped in the loop top where magnetic fields are low. Finally, we clarify the physical distinction between these large, extended microwave bursts and the gradual/post-microwave bursts often seen in weak events, both of which are characterized by long-period activity and broadband spectra.     

The use of numerical simulation in predicting coalbed methane producibility from the Gates coals, Alberta Inner Foothills, Canada: Comparison with Mannville coal CBM production in the Alberta Syncline

Two medium to low volatile bituminous rank coals in the Lower Cretaceous Gates Formation (Mannville equivalent), Inner Foothills of Alberta, were cored as part of a coalbed methane exploration program. The target seams (Seam 4 and Seam 10) were intersected at 652 m and 605 m, respectively. The coals were bright banded, relatively competent and reasonably cleated, with cleat spacing between 5–20 mm. The FMI (Formation Micro-Imaging) log identified two primary fracture directions, corresponding to both face and butt cleats, which were developed almost equally in some coal intervals. The amount of shearing was limited, in spite of the presence of numerous thrust faults and fold structures in the corehole vicinity. Total gas content was high, with an average of 17.7 cm³/g (arb; 568.1 scf/t). An adsorption isotherm of the thick Seam 4 showed gas saturation levels of 90% at in-situ reservoir conditions. Methane content was 92–96% and carbon dioxide levels were less than 2%. Isotopic studies on the methane confirmed the thermogenic origin of the gas, as anticipated based on the coal rank. The coal seams were fracture stimulated using 50/50 nitrogen and fresh water along with 9 to 12 tons of 12/20 mesh sand used as a proppant. It is believed that the coals were not stimulated properly because of the small proppant volume and the complex — and often unpredictable — fracture pattern in coals, particularly in the Inner Foothills region that has high stress anisotropy. An injectivity test showed coal absolute permeability to be less than 1 mD, the skin to be −  2 (indicating a slightly damaged coal) and water saturation in the cleats to be 90%. A four-month production test was conducted; gas rates declined from 930 to 310 m³/d (33 to 11 MCFD) and water rates were low (< 5 BWD). Produced water was saline (TDS was 20,000 mg/L) and high in chloride and bicarbonate ions. Production testing was followed by history matching and numerical simulation, which consisted of numerous vertical and horizontal well development scenarios and other parameters. Simulating multiple parallel horizontal wells in the Gates coals resulted in the highest peak gas production rates, cumulative production and recovery efficiencies, in agreement with public data from the Mannville coals in the deeper part of the Alberta Syncline. The positive effect of constructive interference in depressurizing the coal reservoirs and accelerating gas production over short periods of time was demonstrated. Coal quality data from a nearby underground mine shows that drilling horizontal wellbores in the Gates coals would be challenging because of unfavourable geomechanical properties, such as low cohesion and unconfined compressive strength values, and structural complexity.     

Testing the use of a ‘questionnaire survey instrument’ to investigate public perceptions of tsunami hazard and risk in Sydney,Australia

The Indian Ocean tsunami (IOT) of December 2004 has demonstrated that the coasts of Australia are vulnerable to tsunami flooding. As a consequence of the IOT, the Australian Federal Treasurer announced in 2005 that the Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience Australia will jointly develop and implement the Australian Tsunami Warning System. Effective response to tsunami warnings is highly dependent on public awareness and perception of tsunami hazard and risk. At present, no efforts have been made to investigate and publish public awareness of tsunami hazard and risk and as such, emergency managers have little idea of the likely challenges to effecting appropriate tsunami risk management. We develop a short questionnaire survey instrument and trial that instrument in order to investigate its suitability for generating information about the perceptions of tsunami hazard and risk in the Sydney region. We found that the design, layout and format of the questionnaire were suitable for our purpose and should be useful for generating information appropriate to emergency management agencies tasked with the responsibility of developing tsunami education campaigns and risk mitigation strategies in Australia. However, certain limitations, such as individual question design and format, should be considered before a much larger survey of various stakeholders is conducted.     

Assessing the abilities of intrinsic and specific vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: a comparative study

With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.     

Volcanic risk and tourism in southern Iceland: Implications for hazard,risk and emergency response education and training

This paper examines the relationship between volcanic risk and the tourism sector in southern Iceland and the complex challenge emergency management officials face in developing effective volcanic risk mitigation strategies. An early warning system and emergency response procedures were developed for communities surrounding Katla, the volcano underlying the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. However, prior to and during the 2007 tourist season these mitigation efforts were not effectively communicated to stakeholders located in the tourist destination of Þórsmörk despite its location within the hazard zone of Katla. The hazard zone represents the potential extent of a catastrophic jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood). Furthermore, volcanic risk mitigation efforts in Þórsmörk were based solely on information derived from physical investigations of volcanic hazards. They did not consider the human dimension of risk. In order to address this gap and provide support to current risk mitigation efforts, questionnaire surveys were used to investigate tourists' and tourism employees' hazard knowledge, risk perception, adoption of personal preparedness measures, predicted behaviour if faced with a Katla eruption and views on education.Results indicate that tourists lack hazard knowledge and they do not adopt preparedness measures to deal with the consequences of an eruption. Despite a high level of risk perception, tourism employees lack knowledge about the early warning system and emergency response procedures. Results show that tourists are positive about receiving information concerning Katla and its hazards and therefore, the reticence of tourism employees with respect to disseminating hazard information is unjustified.In order to improve the tourism sector's collective capacity to positively respond during a future eruption, recommendations are made to ensure adequate dissemination of hazard, risk and emergency response information. Most importantly education campaigns should focus on: (a) increasing tourists' knowledge of Katla, jökulhlaup and other volcanic hazards and (b) increasing tourist and employee awareness of the early warning and information system and appropriate behavioural response if a warning is issued. Further, tourism employees should be required to participate in emergency training and evacuation exercises annually. These efforts are timely given that Katla is expected to erupt in the near future and international tourism is an expanding industry in Þórsmörk.     

Multiscale Diversity in the Marshes of the Georgia Coastal Ecosystems LTER

Factors that maintain genetic and species diversity may act in concert in natural ecosystems. Here, we investigate correlations between genetic diversity (in eight salt marsh species) and community species diversity. A significant positive correlation existed between genetic diversity and species richness, although the relationship was not significant for any species individually. Nonetheless, four of the eight comparisons showed strong positive relationships between genetic and species diversity. Additionally, several abiotic variables were used in a model selection procedure to determine what site-level characteristics might drive differences in genetic diversity in this system. The rate of larval influx, as measured by barnacle abundance on Spartina alterniflora, was the strongest predictor of site-level genetic diversity in our samples. Our results suggest that estuarine management efforts should consider recruitment rates when selecting areas for protection.     

Blue Crab (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Callinectes sapidus</Emphasis> Rathbun, 1896) Settlement at Three Georgia (USA) Estuarine Sites

The blue crab, Callinectes sapidus Rathbun, 1896, represents the second most important fishery for coastal Georgia; yet, little is known about environmental forces that affect planktonic postlarval settlement in the region. Here, we describe a study to examine the physical mechanisms responsible for blue crab settlement in the extensive salt marsh system of coastal Georgia. Bottom and surface samplers were placed at three sites along a salinity gradient from a low-salinity site in the Altamaha River to a high-salinity area of the Duplin River, Sapelo Island, GA, USA during 2005. Megalopae and juvenile monitoring occurred from July through December. The majority of both megalopae (86.8%) and juvenile (89.3%) blue crabs were recovered in bottom samplers at the low-salinity Altamaha River site during August and early September. Few megalopae were collected at the surface of the Altamaha River or at the two higher-salinity sites in the Duplin and North Rivers. Downwelling winds were unable to explain all settlement events; however, winds with an onshore component regularly preceded settlement events. The use of a multiple-regression model revealed a lagged relationship (r = 0.5461, $ lag = 0–2 days $ lag = 0–2 days ) between wind events, temperature, salinity, maximum tidal height, and settlement.     

After the Supernova: Runaway Stars and Massive X-ray Binary Populations with Metallicity

One of the main pathways by which massive runaways are thought to be produced is by the disruption of a binary system after the supernova (SN) of one of its components. Under such a scenario, the populations of runaway stars in different phases should reflect the input binary population and its evolution. Conversely, if the system stays together after the SN, a High Mass X-Ray Binary (HMXB) may result. We present simulations exploring the behaviour of such runaway and HMXB populations with metallicity, and compare them to observations. As many as two-thirds of massive runaway stars may be produced by supernovae in binaries. Decreasing metallicity lowers the fraction of O stars which are runaway, but increases the Wolf-Rayet runaway fractions and the number of potential HMXBs.