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排序方式: 共有439条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
31.
Jayant A. Sathaye Larry L. Dale Peter H. Larsen Gary A. Fitts Kevin Koy Sarah M. Lewis André Frossard Pereira de Lucena 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(2):499-511
Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs. 相似文献
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Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli Roberta E. Young Dale B. Haidvogel 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》1989,13(3-4)
The process of combining models of the ocean circulation with large data sets is known in meteorology as model initialization and data assimilation. This process is new to oceanographers, who only now are on the verge of having available world-wide synoptic maps of dynamic variables. In this paper we carry out a series of idealized initialization/assimilation experiments with a primitive equation (PE) model, which constitute a first step in developing a realistic process model and data assimilation techniques for the Gulf Stream system. The PE model is used in a spin-down mode and initialized with an analytic jet profile with geostrophically balanced fields.Two major questions are addressed in the present study. The first concerns the initialization process of a PE model during which internal/inertial gravity wave noise is produced. We ask: are the initialization shocks equally crucial for ocean models as they have been for their atmospheric counterparts? The results of an extensive series of balanced versus unbalanced initializations indicate that, for a PE model with a rigid lid, a brutally unbalanced initialization is required to produce strong internal gravity wave shocks. A geostrophically balanced initialization is sufficient to ensure smooth jet evolutions, with no apparent gravity waves, over long time durations in the spin-down mode. No sophisticated initialization procedures seem, therefore, to be required.The second question addressed is: which component of the flow is the most important in data assimilation to drive the model response towards a baseline reference ocean? We specifically compare the knowledge of the depth-integrated flow only, corresponding to measurements of the total transport, with the knowledge of the density field only, or equivalently the velocity shear. The knowledge of the interior density field is much more effective in decreasing the root-mean-square (r.m.s.) errors relative to the reference ocean. If the baroclinic structure is known, coarse horizontal resolutions of data insertion can be reached before significantly worsening the model estimates. If only the depth-averaged flow is known, a decrease in the horizontal resolution of data assimilation has an immediate effect: the r.m.s. errors sharply increase and the assimilation run diverges from the reference ocean. In the assimilation of the barotropic flow alone, even with dense resolution, the errors in the deep layers always show an increasing trend. The relative effectiveness of baroclinic versus barotropic data insertion can be rationalized in the context of geostrophic adjustment theory. 相似文献
34.
The mulching of agricultural fields and gardens with stones, pebbles, volcanic ash and similar lithic materials is a variant agricultural strategy uniquely suited to the constraints of a dryland environment. While the agricultural literature contains reports on limited experiments with stone or gravel mulch, data regarding the employment of lithic mulch are lacking. This paper works to bridge this gap by comparing empirical data collected from prehistoric pebble-mulch gardens in the Galisteo Basin (New Mexico) to contemporary agricultural experiments with lithic mulch. Such past-present and experimental-real world comparisons allow us to more fully address the effectiveness of lithic mulching as an agricultural strategy. It is affirmed that lithic mulch is applied to garden plots, especially during periods of drought, in order to reduce soil erosion from wind and water, increase soil temperature to extend the growing season, increase water infiltration, and reduce the evaporative loss of water from wind and sun. The cumulative effect of this soil and water conserving technique is an increase in crop biomass and crop yield. 相似文献
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Auger electron spectroscopy has been used to study K-feldspar that has been reacted with both aqueous 10% HF and a 50% mixture of a 10% HF/0.1 N H2SO4 solution. In the feldspar/HF system, the resulting feldspar surface was shown to have been fluorinated; depth profiling, using argon ion sputtering, showed the fluorination to have occurred substantially into the mineral bulk. In the feldspar/ system, the resulting surface contained both fluorine and sulfur. The fluorination had again penetrated into the bulk, but the sulfur could be removed with mild argon ion sputtering. The signal ratio was much lower on the feldspar surface treated with the 10% HF/0.1 N H2SO4 solution than the feldspar surface treated with the weaker 10% HF acid solution. 相似文献
37.
Hybrid Estimation of Semivariogram Parameters 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Two widely used methods of semivariogram estimation are weighted least squares estimation and maximum likelihood estimation.
The former have certain computational advantages, whereas the latter are more statistically efficient. We introduce and study
a “hybrid” semivariogram estimation procedure that combines weighted least squares estimation of the range parameter with
maximum likelihood estimation of the sill (and nugget) assuming known range, in such a way that the sill-to-range ratio in
an exponential semivariogram is estimated consistently under an infill asymptotic regime. We show empirically that such a
procedure is nearly as efficient computationally, and more efficient statistically for some parameters, than weighted least
squares estimation of all of the semivariogram’s parameters. Furthermore, we demonstrate that standard plug-in (or empirical)
spatial predictors and prediction error variances, obtained by replacing the unknown semivariogram parameters with estimates
in expressions for the ordinary kriging predictor and kriging variance, respectively, perform better when hybrid estimates
are plugged in than when weighted least squares estimates are plugged in. In view of these results and the simplicity of computing
the hybrid estimates from weighted least squares estimates, we suggest that software that currently estimates the semivariogram
by weighted least squares methods be amended to include hybrid estimation as an option. 相似文献
38.
Dust in the Wind: Long Range Transport of Dust in the Atmosphere and Its Implications for Global Public and Ecosystem Health 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Movement of soil particles in atmospheres is a normal planetary process. Images of Martian dust devils (wind-spouts) and dust
storms captured by NASA's Pathfinder have demonstrated the significant role that storm activity plays in creating the red
atmospheric haze of Mars. On Earth, desert soils moving in the atmosphere are responsible for the orange hues in brilliant
sunrises and sunsets. In severe dust storm events, millions of tons of soil may be moved across great expanses of land and
ocean. An emerging scientific interest in the process of soil transport in the Earth's atmosphere is in the field of public
and ecosystem health. This article will address the benefits and the potential hazards associated with exposure to particle
fallout as clouds of desert dust traverse the globe.
This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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