Variability of Neptune

Earth-based observers of Neptune have found that the planet varies in brightness at various wavelengths in ways that suggest that changes occur in the planet's atmosphere on several different time scales. Global inhomogeneities in high-altitude haze distribution that are stable for several days permit measurements of the planet's rotation period (about 18 hr), but this stability sometimes breaks down, obscuring the diurnal lightcurve. In addition, there is an apparent long-term variability of the brightness of Neptune in anticorrelation with the cycle of solar activity. This slow variability of low amplitude may be punctuated by outburst of high-altitude condensation of particles in the atmosphere whose decay time is several months.     

Projected increased risk of water deficit over major West African river basins under future climates

Despite decades of research, large multi-model uncertainty remains about the Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide forcing as inferred from state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs). Statistical treatments of multi-model uncertainties are often limited to simple ESM averaging approaches. Sometimes models are weighted by how well they reproduce historical climate observations. Here, we propose a novel approach to multi-model combination and uncertainty quantification. Rather than averaging a discrete set of models, our approach samples from a continuous distribution over a reduced space of simple model parameters. We fit the free parameters of a reduced-order climate model to the output of each member of the multi-model ensemble. The reduced-order parameter estimates are then combined using a hierarchical Bayesian statistical model. The result is a multi-model distribution of reduced-model parameters, including climate sensitivity. In effect, the multi-model uncertainty problem within an ensemble of ESMs is converted to a parametric uncertainty problem within a reduced model. The multi-model distribution can then be updated with observational data, combining two independent lines of evidence. We apply this approach to 24 model simulations of global surface temperature and net top-of-atmosphere radiation response to abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide, and four historical temperature data sets. Our reduced order model is a 2-layer energy balance model. We present probability distributions of climate sensitivity based on (1) the multi-model ensemble alone and (2) the multi-model ensemble and observations.     

Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios

The parallel scenario process enables characterization of climate-related risks and response options to climate change under different socio-economic futures and development prospects. The process is based on representative concentration pathways, shared socio-economic pathways, and shared policy assumptions. Although this scenario architecture is a powerful tool for evaluating the intersection of climate and society at the regional and global level, more specific context is needed to explore and understand risks, drivers, and enablers of change at the national and local level. We discuss the need for a stronger recognition of such national-scale characteristics to make climate change scenarios more relevant at the national and local scale, and propose ways to enrich the scenario architecture with locally relevant details that enhance salience, legitimacy, and credibility for stakeholders. Dynamic adaptive pathways are introduced as useful tools to draw out which elements of a potentially infinite scenario space connect with decision-relevant aspects of particular climate-related and non-climate-related risks and response options. Reviewing adaptation pathways for New Zealand case studies, we demonstrate how this approach could bring the global-scale scenario architecture within reach of local-scale decision-making. Such a process would enhance the utility of scenarios for mapping climate-related risks and adaptation options at the local scale, involving appropriate stakeholder involvement.     

Thermodynamic and kinetic control on anaerobic oxidation of methane in marine sediments

The free energy yield of microbial respiration reactions in anaerobic marine sediments must be sufficient to be conserved as biologically usable energy in the form of ATP. Anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) coupled to sulfate reduction (SRR) has a very low standard free energy yield of ΔG^° = −33 kJ mol⁻¹, but the in situ energy yield strongly depends on the concentrations of substrates and products in the pore water of the sediment. In this work ΔG for the AOM-SRR process was calculated from the pore water concentrations of methane, sulfate, sulfide, and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in sediment cores from different sites of the European continental margin in order to determine the influence of thermodynamic regulation on the activity and distribution of microorganisms mediating AOM-SRR. In the zone of methane and sulfate coexistence, the methane-sulfate transition zone (SMTZ), the energy yield was rarely less than −20 kJ mol⁻¹ and was mostly rather constant throughout this zone. The kinetic drive was highest at the lower part of the SMTZ, matching the occurrence of maximum AOM rates. The results show that the location of maximum AOM rates is determined by a combination of thermodynamic and kinetic drive, whereas the rate activity mainly depends on kinetic regulation.     

Usage of an early warning and information system Web-site for real-time seismicity in Iceland

Iceland has been subjected to destructive earthquakes and volcanic eruptions throughout history. Such events are often preceded by changes in earthquake activity over varying timescales. Although most seismicity is confined to micro-earthquakes, large earthquakes have occurred within populated regions. Following the most recent hazardous earthquakes in 2000, the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) developed an early warning and information system (EWIS) Web-site for viewing near-real-time seismicity in Iceland. Here we assess Web-site usage data in relation to earthquake activity, as recorded by the South Iceland Lowland (SIL) seismic network. Between March 2005 and May 2006 the SIL seismic network recorded 12,583 earthquakes. During this period, the EWIS Web-site logged a daily median of 91 visits. The largest onshore event (M _L 4.2) struck 20 km from Reykjavík on 06 March 2006 and was followed by an immediate, upsurge in usage resulting in a total of 1,173 unique visits to the Web-site. The greatest cluster of large (≥M _L 3) events occurred 300 km offshore from Reykjavík in May 2005. Within this swarm, 9 earthquakes ≥M _L 3 were detected on 11 May 2005, resulting in the release of a media bulletin by IMO. During the swarm, and following the media bulletin, the EWIS Web-site logged 1,234 unique visits gradually throughout the day. In summary, the data reveal a spatial and temporal relationship between Web-site usage and earthquake activity. The EWIS Web-site is accessed immediately after the occurrence of a local earthquake, whereas distant, unfelt earthquakes generate gradual interest prompted by media bulletins and, possibly, other contributing factors. We conclude that the Internet is a useful tool for displaying seismic information in near-real-time, which has the capacity to help increase public awareness of natural hazards.     

Using chemical and microbiological indicators to track the impacts from the land application of treated municipal wastewater and other sources on groundwater quality in a karstic springs basin

Multiple chemical constituents (nutrients; N, O, H, C stable isotopes; 64 organic wastewater compounds, 16 pharmaceutical compounds) and microbiological indicators were used to assess the impact on groundwater quality from the land application of approximately 9.5 million liters per day of treated municipal sewage effluent to a sprayfield in the 960-km² Ichetucknee Springs basin, northern Florida. Enriched stable isotope signatures (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) were found in water from the effluent reservoir and a sprayfield monitoring well (MW-7) due to evaporation; however, groundwater samples downgradient from the sprayfield have δ¹⁸O and δ²H concentrations that represented recharge of meteoric water. Boron and chloride concentrations also were elevated in water from the sprayfield effluent reservoir and MW-7, but concentrations in groundwater decreased substantially with distance downgradient to background levels in the springs (about 12 km) and indicated at least a tenfold dilution factor. Nitrate-nitrogen isotope (δ¹⁵N–NO₃) values above 10 ‰ in most water samples were indicative of organic nitrogen sources except Blue Hole Spring (δ¹⁵N–NO₃ = 4.6–4.9 ‰), which indicated an inorganic source of nitrogen (fertilizers). The detection of low concentrations the insect repellent N,N-diethyl-metatoluamide (DEET), and other organic compounds associated with domestic wastewater in Devil’s Eye Spring indicated that leakage from a nearby septic tank drainfield likely has occurred. Elevated levels of fecal coliforms and enterococci were found in Blue Hole Spring during higher flow conditions, which likely resulted from hydraulic connections to upgradient sinkholes and are consistent with previoius dye-trace studies. Enteroviruses were not detected in the sprayfield effluent reservoir, but were found in low concentrations in water samples from a downgradient well and Blue Hole Spring during high-flow conditions indicating a human wastewater source. The Upper Floridan aquifer in the Ichetucknee Springs basin is highly vulnerable to contamination from multiple anthropogenic sources throughout the springs basin.     

GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND PHOTOGRAMMETRY ORGANISATIONAL ISSUES

This paper was presented at the 1990 Thompson Symposium. It distinguishes between geographical information systems (GIS) as a set of hardware and software tools and the institutional problems that arise when implementing GIS in an organisational environment. It examines issues such as data quality, that arise when treating information as a corporate resource, as well as the legal, economic and social constraints on the use of data.     

Mid-eclipse brightening of the Galilean satellites

Brinkmann (1973) has suggested that the Galilean satellites might briefly manifest a brightening at mid-eclipse due to a concentration of light refracted into the geometric umbra of Jupiter by the atmosphere around the terminator. Results obtained using two different models of the Jovian atmosphere indicate that such a brightening is unlikely even for Callisto due to the probable aerosol concentration in the Jovian atmosphere at the relevant altitudes.