Estimation of instantaneous peak flows from maximum mean daily flows using the HBV hydrological model

The record length and quality of instantaneous peak flows (IPFs) have a great influence on flood design, but these high resolution flow data are not always available. The primary aim of this study is to compare different strategies to derive frequency distributions of IPFs using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrologic model. The model is operated on a daily and an hourly time step for 18 catchments in the Aller‐Leine basin, Germany. Subsequently, general extreme value (GEV) distributions are fitted to the simulated annual series of daily and hourly extreme flows. The resulting maximum mean daily flow (MDF) quantiles from daily simulations are transferred into IPF quantiles using a multiple regression model, which enables a direct comparison with the simulated hourly quantiles. As long climate records with a high temporal resolution are not available, the hourly simulations require a disaggregation of the daily rainfall. Additionally, two calibrations strategies are applied: (1) a calibration on flow statistics; (2) a calibration on hydrographs. The results show that: (1) the multiple regression model is capable of predicting IPFs with the simulated MDFs; (2) both daily simulations with post‐correction of flows and hourly simulations with pre‐processing of precipitation enable a reasonable estimation of IPFs; (3) the best results are achieved using disaggregated rainfall for hourly modelling with calibration on flow statistics; and (4) if the IPF observations are not sufficient for model calibration on flow statistics, the transfer of MDFs via multiple regressions is a good alternative for estimating IPFs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of convolutional neural network fused with machine learning modeling framework for geospatial comparative analysis of landslide susceptibility

Natural Hazards - Landslides in mountain settlements are among the most widespread and dangerous geohazards. In this study, we aimed to assess landslide susceptibility using Wenchuan, southwest...     

Permafrost and taliks and their changes on the south and north banks of the Tuotuo River in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under the climate warming北大核心CSCD

The distribution of permafrost and taliks is very complex in the Tuotuo River Basin(TRB), which is located in interior of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Characterizing the spatial distribution and the thermal stability of permafrost and taliks is of great significance to community activities and engineering construction in TRB. Based on the zonation of permafrost and talik distribution around TRB conducted in the 1980s, the soil temperature and its variation process of permafrost and taliks in the south and north banks of the Tuotuo River were analyzed by using the observation data of five boreholes(N1~N5)along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway in the north bank and five boreholes(S1~S5)on the first terrace in the south bank. The results showed that, under the climate warming, permafrost and taliks in the north banks experienced significant degradation and warming process. From 2005 to 2020, the permafrost at the N1 borehole has undergone a significant down-draw degradation process, from extremely unstable and high-temperature permafrost to thawed zone. From 2005 to 2013, the annual average ground temperature of the talik at N2 increased at a rate of 0. 3~0. 4 °C·(10a)-1. At Maqutang on the south bank, permafrost prevails from the first-class terrace to the gentle slope of the Kaixinling Mountain, with both through and non-through taliks on the first-class terrace. The spatial distribution and the thermal stability of permafrost and talik in the TRB are further promoted by analyzing the changes in temperatures at boreholes in the basin. However, to meet the requirements of mapping and engineering construction of permafrost and taliks in the TRB, it is still necessary to carry out geological investigation with multiple methods and in-depth research on development mechanism of taliks in the future. © 2022 Nanjing Forestry University. All rights reserved.     

微观负泊松比锚杆静力学特性及其工程应用研究

相比于传统的小变形锚杆支护材料,负泊松比锚杆/索材料具有大伸长量、高强高韧、高恒阻力、吸能等优异力学特性。在宏观负泊松比（NPR）锚杆/索研究和应用基础上,何满潮研发了新一代微观NPR钢材料和微观NPR锚杆。目前微观NPR钢材料的静力学特性研究较少,微观NPR锚杆在城市地下隧道工程的适用性有待于现场应用验证。通过室内静力拉伸试验对微观NPR钢的力学特性进行了研究,结果表明本批次微观NPR钢平均伸长率为34.68%;恒阻力值范围为203.9～ 240.7 kN;拉伸全过程表现为均匀拉伸变形;无屈服平台,破断时无明显颈缩现象。通过理论推导,建立了微观NPR锚杆在微静力拉伸条件下的弹塑性增量本构模型。以某路地铁站风道段为工程背景,介绍了微观NPR锚杆施工工艺,现场测试了极限拉拔力、伸长率及锚杆轴力等方面,结果表明,微观NPR锚杆具有高恒阻力及大伸长量等优势。在围岩大变形隧道开展了支护应用试验,验证了其具有良好的围岩大变形控制效果。     

珠江口盆地珠一坳陷西部中新世早-中期沉积特征及控制因素*

大型海相三角洲分布范围广,沉积动力复杂,其精细层序—沉积构型和演化规律是沉积学领域长期研究的热点。综合岩矿、测井和三维地震资料,充分结合高精度层序地层学和三维地震沉积学分析方法,对古珠江三角洲西侧的恩平地区中新世早-中期沉积特征进行了精细研究,识别出了辫状河道、曲流河道等河控三角洲的主要微相单元,同时也揭示出海岸砂脊等浪控三角洲中发育的典型微相类型。在高精度层序格架约束下,揭示出单一典型层序内古珠江三角洲的演化特征: 低位体系域以河控三角洲为主,发育大型交切状辫状水道;海侵和高位体系域河道规模明显减小,以小规模曲流河道为主,且易于见到海岸砂脊等波浪作用的典型特征。此外,针对恩平地区中新世早-中期沉积相带的系统编图和演化分析,在大约6 ^Ma时间内识别出6次河道大规模改道现象,推测恩平地区沉积演化明显受到自旋回沉积过程的影响。     

The scale effect on the failure mechanism and penetration resistance of caisson piling in clay

Acta Geotechnica - The influence of scale effect could be significant on the behavior of ring stiffened caisson penetrating into clay, which brings uncertainty when predicting the failure mechanism...     

土工格栅加筋珊瑚砂的强度及变形特性试验研究

珊瑚岛礁钙质砂作为海洋工程建设的主要原材料,具有碳酸钙含量高、多孔隙、颗粒易破碎等特征。为了进一步提高海洋工程建设中岩土构筑物的强度及稳定性,采用土工格栅加筋珊瑚砂是一种潜在的有效手段。通过一系列的室内三轴压缩试验,探究土工格栅加筋层数、初始含水率、围压等因素对加筋珊瑚砂强度及变形特性的影响。研究发现：格栅加筋能够明显地改善珊瑚砂的力学性能,随着格栅层数的增加,加筋珊瑚砂整体的强度逐渐上升,偏应力-应变关系总体呈现硬化趋势,侧向的鼓胀变形得到明显改善;似黏聚力随着格栅层数增加近似呈线性递增,内摩擦角轻微降低;随着初始含水率的增加,格栅加筋珊瑚砂的强度呈轻微衰减趋势,似黏聚力变化不大,但内摩擦角相比干砂最大下降了约4°;三轴应力状态下的格栅加筋珊瑚砂颗粒破碎受围压影响较大,低于400k Pa围压下的相对破碎率主要在3%以内。此外,基于格栅与珊瑚砂相互作用特征,考虑并计算得到格栅产生的侧向与轴向附加应力,研究结果进一步丰富了对格栅加筋珊瑚砂机制的认识。     

山东省东汶河沂南地区地下水水化学特征及形成机理

地下水作为人类重要的水源之一,已经受到了人类活动的明显影响而造成污染,深入研究地下水化学特征及形成机制,对于地下水资源的合理利用具有重要意义.东汶河沂南地区分布着多种类型的含水层,并且农业、养殖业发达,是进行人类活动影响下的地下水水化学形成研究的理想地区.本文综合利用Piper三线图、离子比值法及数理统计(相关性分析、因子分析、聚类分析)等方法,对东汶河沂南地区地下水水化学特征及形成机理进行研究.研究结果表明,本区地下水水化学类型总体以HCO3-Ca、HCO3-Ca·Mg型为主,TDS含量在243～1473 mg/L之间.地下水中HCO-3、SO2-4、Ca2+和Mg2+等离子主要来自于碳酸盐类矿物及硫酸盐类矿物的溶解,而Na+、K+、Cl-、NO-3则主要来自于岩盐溶解和人类活动污染.水岩作用对地下水水化学的影响超过了62.024％;受人类活动影响明显的水样占到了总水样数的13.6％,对地下水水化学的贡献率则达到了20.318％.河谷平原地区受到农业及养殖业等人类活动的污染明显.