The Baltic Sea Experiment BALTEX: A brief overview and some selected results of the authors

The mechanisms responsible for the transfer of energy and water within the climate system are under worldwide investigation within the framework of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) to improve the predictability of natural and man-made climate changes at short and long ranges and their impact on water resources. Five continental-scale experiments have been established within GEWEX to enable a more complete coupling between atmospheric and hydrological models. One of them is the Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX).In this paper, the goals and structure of BALTEX are outlined. A short overview of measuring and modelling strategies is given. Atmospheric and hydrological model results of the authors only are presented. These include also the validation of precipitation using station measurements as well as validation of modelled cloud cover with cloud estimates from satellite data. Furthermore, results of a large-scale grid based hydrological model to be coupled to atmospheric models are presented.This research has never been possible without the contribution of research groups and operational institutions from all 10 member countries. We concentrate here on results obtained at the GKSS research center.     

A Comparative Study for 3D Surface Modeling of Coal Deposit by Spatial Interpolation Approaches

The planning stages of mining require comprehensive and detailed analyses. The proper determination of the orebody boundary is one of the most important points to provide optimum model structure and projections. The limits can be determined by different methods based on the site geology. Although some three dimensional (3D) models were proposed for providing detailed information concerning a mine deposit, developing a solid model via a 3D approach is novelty. In other words, surface modeling should be performed for creating a solid model and determining limits of the deposit. In this way, sensible generation of the surface model can be achieved. This study investigated the estimation capability of the polynomial approach, which is a novel spatial interpolation method, for modeling a coal deposit surface. The performance of the proposed model was compared with some conventional methods in the literature. The results showed that the polynomial interpolation method is an effective method to employ for surface modeling of a mine deposit.     

Stability of the glacial thermohaline circulation and its dependence on the background hydrological cycle

Different reconstructions of glacial sea-surface temperatures (SST) are used to force a hybrid coupled atmosphere–ocean model. The resulting glacial states differ in global salinity and temperature distributions, and consequently in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Stability analysis of the Atlantic Ocean circulation, by means of freshwater-flux hysteresis maps, reveals mono-stability for each glacial background state, which appears to be a robust feature of the glacial ocean. We show that this behaviour is directly linked to the hydrological cycle. A monotonic relation between the freshwater input necessary for reaching the off-mode and the hydrological budget in the Atlantic catchment area, accounts for the sensitivity of the oceans circulation. The most sensitive part of the hydrological balance appears to be in the tropical and subtropical regions suggesting that the Achilles heel of the global conveyor belt circulation is not restricted to the northern North Atlantic where convection occurs.     

Impact of climatic change on the biological production in the Barents Sea

The Barents Sea is a high latitude ecosystem and is an important nursery and feeding area for commercial fish stocks such as cod, capelin and herring. There is a large inter-annual variability both in physical and biological conditions in the Barents Sea. Understanding and predicting changes in the system requires insight into the coupled nature of the physical and biological interactions. A coupled physical and biological ocean model is used to study the impact of postulated future atmospheric changes on the physical and biological conditions in the Barents Sea. Results from this simulation not only show that there is a large variability in the physical conditions on a wide range of time scales, but also that the temperature in the Barents Sea is increasing. The corresponding ice cover decrease is most noticeable in the summer months. The changes in physical properties will most likely have an impact on the biotope. On average, the primary production increases slightly over a 65 year long period, about 8%, partly due to an increased production in the northern Barents Sea. The model further simulates that the production of Atlantic zooplankton species increases approximately 20% and becomes more abundant in the east. The Arctic zooplankton biomass decreases significantly (50%) causing the total simulated production to decrease.     

Rippled scour depressions on continental shelf bank slopes off Nordland and Troms,Northern Norway

Multibeam bathymetry acquired under the MAREANO programme from the continental shelf off Nordland and Troms, northern Norway, show bedforms that we have interpreted as rippled scour depressions. They occur in three areas offshore on bank slopes facing southeast, more than 15 km from land. They are generally found where the slope gradient is low, in water depths of 70–160 m. Individual depressions are up to 3 km long, 1 m deep and up to 300 m wide. They occur in areas where sediments evolve quickly from glacial deposits on the banks to post-glacial muddy sediments on the glacial troughs. Multibeam backscatter and underwater video data show that depression floors are covered by rippled, gravelly, shelly sand. Ripple crests are parallel or slightly oblique to the depression axis orientation. Sand without bedforms is observed between the depressions. TOPAS seismic lines show that the uppermost seismic unit consists of the sand between the depressions. The base of this unit may be the last transgressive/tidal/wave ravinement surface. Physical oceanographic modelling indicates that maximum current velocities are up to 0.6 m/s in the rippled scour depression areas. Stronger currents appear to inhibit the building of these features. Tidal currents play an important role as they trend parallel to the southeast banks slopes and are likely responsible of the gravelly ripples formation inside the depressions as well as the persistence of these depressions which are not covered by finer sediments. On Malangsgrunnen bank, some of the rippled scour depressions are in the extension of NW–SE furrows located on the bank. Simulated bottom currents indicate currents mainly perpendicular to these furrows, as for the rippled scour depressions on the bank slopes. Nevertheless, these features could also highlight currents coming from the northwest which reach the bank margin and continue down to the areas of the rippled scour depressions. These currents could be responsible for the formation of some of the bedforms, together with tidal currents.     

Rapid physicochemical changes in the high Arctic Lake Kongressvatn caused by recent climate change

High Arctic lakes are among the most sensitive ecosystems and climate change strongly affects their physical properties, especially water temperature, and mixing processes. To study the effect of recent climate change on such a lake in the Arctic environment, we measured water chemistry and temperature from 2005 to 2010 in Kongressvatn, a crenogenic meromictic lake in Spitsbergen (Svalbard). In addition, we monitored water column temperatures during two consecutive years and compared them to regional air temperature data and physicochemical lake data from 1962 and 1968, two relatively cold years. Summer surface water temperature was highly correlated to air temperature, and both have increased by approximately 2°C since 1962. Temperature monitoring during 2?years showed that the warm summer of 2007 resulted in increased water temperatures even in the stratified, denser hypolimnion. Our water chemistry measurements showed that the chemocline position in 2005?C2010 was ca 12?m deeper than in 1962?C1968, and a second, weaker, chemocline appeared at metalimnetic depths of 7?C15?m. During the study period, the water level decreased by 4?m, and this change accelerated between 2008 and 2010. Our data support the hypothesis that water temperatures and stratification patterns are changing rapidly with air temperature, but changes in the catchment, such as glacial retreat and permafrost melting, may have an even stronger impact on lake properties.     

Seabed shear stresses under random waves: predictions vs estimates from field measurements

The paper discusses the seabed shear stresses under random waves, and compares model predictions with results from field measurements near the seabed in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Washington State, and at EDDA, North Sea. The model predictions as well as the interpretation of data are based on three different representative measures of random wave velocities within 12 minute records: root-mean-square, significant and maximum values. From the two locations the best agreement is found for the Strait of Juan de Fuca data regardless of the random velocity measure used. This agreement is attributed to the absence of suspended sediment at this location.     

Bottom friction caused by boundary layer streaming beneath random waves for laminar and smooth turbulent flow

The effect of boundary layer streaming on the sea bed shear stresses, beneath random waves, is investigated for laminar flow as well as smooth turbulent flow. It is demonstrated how bottom friction formulas for regular waves can be used to obtain the bed shear stresses resulting from steady streaming under random waves. As a result, friction factors for steady streaming under random waves are provided, and the effect of streaming versus the effect of linear waves is discussed. For laminar flow the effect of second order Stokes waves is also included. Examples are included to illustrate the applicability of the present practical method, and results are obtained using data typical for field conditions.