A Bayesian approach to monitoring and assessing unexploded ordnance remediation progress from munitions testing ranges

We present a statistical methodology which aims to monitor and assess the progress of unexploded ordnance remediation. We explicitly quantify the probability that each buried sensor-identified anomaly is not a target of interest conditional on the information gleaned from anomalies which have been dug and identified. We provide a measure of confidence that the anomalies which remain onsite after remediation are not unexploded ordnance—this measure of confidence is gleaned through Monte Carlo methods. The methodology is iterative in that, at any point in the remediation process, we can assess remediation progress and compute the probability that no targets of interest remain given the available dig information.     

Voltammetric estimation of iron(III) thermodynamic stability constants for catecholate siderophores isolated from marine bacteria and cyanobacteria

Thermodynamic stability constants have been estimated for the complexation of iron(III) with catecholate-type siderophores isolated from the marine bacterium Alteromonas luteoviolacea and from the marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002. Stability constants were determined utilizing the “chelate scale” of Taylor et al. (1994). The scale is based upon a linear relationship between the reduction potentials and the pH-independent thermodynamic stability constants for known iron(III) complexes. Log K values for the alterobactin B ferric iron complex are 43.6 ± 1.5 at pH 8.2 and 37.6 ± 1.2 at pH 6, consistent with a shift from bis-catecholate to monosalicylate/monocatecholate iron coordination with decreasing pH. Synechococcus isolates PCC 7002 Nos. 1 and 3 formed iron(III) complexes with stability constants of approximately 38.1 ± 1.2 and 42.3 ± 1.5, respectively. The binding strengths of the iron(III) complexes examined in this study are quite high, suggesting that catecholate siderophores may play a role in the solubilization and biological uptake of iron in the marine environment.     

Burial and degradation of organic carbon in Louisiana shelf/slope sediments

The primary focus of this paper is to better understand carbon burial on the Louisiana continental margin using spatial scales that covered various shelf depositional areas far-field and near-field (sediment and organic carbon inputs relative to river mouth proximity) and covering a variety of sedimentation rates. Box-cores samples were collected in July 2003; cores were collected along two depositional transects extending westward and southward from the Southwest Pass (SW Pass). A key difference between the two transects sampled in this study was the greater occurrence of mobile muds derived from spillover from shallower regions along the westward 50 m isobaths. The dominant mechanism for mixing in the surface active zone (SAZ) on the inner Louisiana shelf was due to physical, not biological, forces. Burial efficiencies for organic carbon (57.2–91.5%) and total nitrogen (44.2–86.9%) ranged widely across all shelf stations. Lower burial efficiencies for bulk organic carbon, total nitrogen, and pigment biomarkers were associated with mobile muds west of Southwest Pass. Chlorophyll a concentrations were significantly higher than pheopigments at depth at the Mississippi River and Southwest Pass stations, making up 40.4 and 77.4% of total pigment concentrations in the (SAZ) and 46.2 and 63.2% in the accumulation zone (AZ), respectively. These results are in agreement with earlier plant pigment studies which showed that a large fraction of the phytodetritus delivered to the inner shelf was derived from coastal and river diatoms. The amount of lignin preserved with depth decreased with increasing residence time in the SAZ and diagenetic zone (DZ) along the canyon transect but not along the western transect. Trends for lignin concentration followed previously identified surface sediment trends indicating overall lower burial of refractory terrestrial material at depth with greater distance offshore.     

Epiphytic diatoms as flood indicators

The hydroecology of floodplain lakes is strongly regulated by flood events. The threat of climate warming and increasing human activities requires development of scientific methods to quantify changes in the frequency of short-lived flood events, because they remain difficult to identify using conventional paleolimnological and monitoring approaches. We developed an approach to detect floods in sediment records by comparing the abundance and composition of epiphytic diatom communities in flooded and non-flooded ponds of the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), Canada, that grew on submerged macrophytes (Potamogeton zosteriformis, P. perfoliatus) and an artificial substrate (polypropylene sheets) during the open-water season of 2005. Analysis of similarity tests showed that epiphytic diatom community composition differs significantly between flooded and non-flooded ponds. After accounting for the “pond effect,” paired comparisons of the three substrates determined that variation in community composition between the artificial substrate and macrophytes was similar to that between the macrophyte taxa. Similarity percentage analysis identified diatom taxa that discriminate between flooded and non-flooded ponds. The relative abundance of ‘strong flood indicator taxa’ was used to construct an event-scale flood record spanning the past 180 years using analyses of sedimentary diatom assemblages from a closed-drainage pond (PAD 5). Results were verified by close agreement with an independent paleoflood record from a nearby flood-prone oxbow pond (PAD 54) and historical records. Comparison of epiphytic diatoms in flooded and non-flooded lakes in this study provides a promising approach to detect changes in flood frequency, and may have applications for reconstructing other pulse-type disturbances such as hurricanes and pollutant spills.     

Cognitive and Affective Predictors of Illinois Residents’ Perceived Risks from Gray Wolves

Abstract

Increasing wolf populations are a concern for wildlife managers in the Midwestern U.S. Understanding the psychological mechanisms that contribute to public perceptions of risk will enable development of strategies that seek to mitigate these risks, and suggest where outreach efforts may facilitate acceptance of wolves. We examined the psychological factors that influence Illinois residents’ perceived risks from wolves. We hypothesized that individuals’ perceived risks from wolves were a function of their attitudes toward wolves, negative affect toward wolves, and basic beliefs about wildlife. Data were obtained from a survey of the Illinois public (n?=?784). Negative affect and attitudes toward wolves were direct predictors of perceived risks. Basic beliefs predicted attitudes and negative affect toward wolves. Negative affect predicted attitudes. Basic beliefs had direct and indirect effects on perceived risks.