The policy relevance of global environmental change research

Many scientists are striving to identify and promote the policy implications of their global change research. Much basic research on global environmental change cannot advance policy directly, but new projects can determine the relevance of their research to decision makers and build policy-relevant products into the work. Similarly, many ongoing projects can alter or add to the present science design to make the research policy relevant. Thus, this paper shows scientists working on global change how to make their research policy relevant. It demonstrates how research on physical global change relates to human dimensions studies and integrated assessments. It also presents an example of how policy relevance can be fit retroactively into a global change project (in this case, SRBEX—the Susquehanna River Basin Experiment) and how that addition can enhance the project's status and science. The paper concludes that policy relevance is desirable from social and scientific perspectives.     

40Ar/39Ar ages of L4, H5, EL6, and feldspathic ureilitic clasts from the Almahata Sitta polymict ureilite (asteroid 2008 TC3)

The Almahata Sitta (AhS) meteorite consists of disaggregated clasts from the impact of the polymict asteroid 2008 TC₃, including ureilitic (70%–80%) and diverse non-ureilitic materials. We determined the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar release patterns for 16 AhS samples (3–1500 μg) taken from three chondritic clasts, AhS 100 (L4), AhS 25 (H5), and MS-D (EL6), as well as a clast of ureilitic trachyandesite MS-MU-011, also known as ALM-A, which is probably a sample of the crust of the ureilite parent body (UPB). Based on our analyses, best estimates of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages (Ma) of the chondritic clasts are 4535 ± 10 (L4), 4537–4555 with a younger age preferred (H5), and 4513 ± 17 (EL6). The ages for the L4 and the H5 clasts are older than the most published ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages for L4 and H5 meteorites, respectively. The age for the EL6 clast is typical of older EL6 chondrites. These ages indicate times of argon closure ranging up to 50 Ma after the main constituents of the host breccia, that is, the ureilitic components of AhS, reached the >800°C blocking temperatures of pyroxene and olivine thermometers. We suggest that these ages record the times at which the clasts cooled to the Ar closure temperatures on their respective parent bodies. This interpretation is consistent with the recent proposal that the majority of xenolithic materials in polymict ureilites were implanted into regolith 40–60 Ma after calcium–aluminum-rich inclusion and is consistent with the interpretation that 2008 TC₃ was a polymict ureilite. With allowance for its 10-Ma uncertainty, the 4549-Ma ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of ALM-A is consistent with closure within a few Ma of the time recorded by its Pb/Pb age either on the UPB or as part of a rapidly cooling fragment. Plots of age versus cumulative ³⁹Ar release for 10 of 15 samples with ≥5 heating steps indicate minor losses of ⁴⁰Ar over the last 4.5 Ga. The other five such samples lost some ⁴⁰Ar at estimated times no earlier than 3800–4500 Ma bp . Clustering of ages in the low-temperature data for these five samples suggests that an impact caused localized heating of the AhS progenitor ~2.7 Ga ago. In agreement with the published work, 10 estimates of cosmic-ray exposure ages based on ³⁸Ar concentrations average 17 ± 5 Ma but may include some early irradiation.     

Evidence of temperature depression and hydrological variations in the eastern Sierra Nevada during the Younger Dryas stade

Sediment records from two lakes in the east-central Sierra Nevada, California, provide evidence of cooling and hydrological shifts during the Younger Dryas stade (YD; ~ 12,900-11,500 cal yr BP). A chironomid transfer function suggests that lake-water temperatures were depressed by 2°C to 4°C relative to maximum temperatures during the preceding Bølling-Allerød interstade (BA; ~ 14,500-12,900 cal yr BP). Diatom and stable isotope records suggest dry conditions during the latter part of the BA interstade and development of relatively moist conditions during the initiation of the YD stade, with a reversion to drier conditions later in the YD. These paleohydrological inferences correlate with similar timed changes detected in the adjacent Great Basin. Vegetation response during the YD stade includes the development of more open and xeric vegetation toward the end of the YD. The new records support linkages between the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, and widespread YD cooling in western North America, but they also suggest complex hydrological influences. Shifting hydrological conditions and relatively muted vegetation changes may explain the previous lack of evidence for the YD stade in the Sierra Nevada and the discordance in some paleohydrological and glacial records of the YD stade from the western United States.     

“The Coast” is Complicated: A Model to Consistently Describe the Nation’s Coastal Population

Our nation’s coast is a complicated management area where no single delineation provides all of the demographic statistics needed to address the full range of policy and management issues. As a result, several different coastal delineations are currently being used, yielding a variety of US coastal population statistics. This paper proposes a simple model for generating and applying coastal population statistics at the national and regional level to increase consistency in coastal policy discussions and improve public understanding of coastal issues. The model includes two major components. The first component is “the population that most directly affects the coast,” represented by the permanent US population that resides in a standard suite of Coastal Watershed Counties, where land use and water quality changes most directly impact coastal ecosystems. The second component is “the population most directly affected by the coast,” represented by the permanent US population that resides in a standard suite of Coastal Shoreline Counties that are directly adjacent to the open ocean, major estuaries, and the Great Lakes, which due to their proximity to these waters, bear a great proportion of the full range of effects from coastal hazards and host the majority of economic production associated with coastal and ocean resources.     

Comment on “application of the Canadian regional climate model to the Laurentian Great Lakes region: Implementation of a lake model”

Abstract

A recently published slab model formulation of lake thermodynamics (Goyette et al., 2000), including an empirical factor to adjust the incoming heat flux so that the modelled lake surface temperature agrees with observed climatology, leads to a distinct lack of energy conservation. The empirical adjustment conceptually represents an exchange of heat between the mixed‐layer water (the slab that is explicitly simulated in the model) and deeper layers of water. It ensures a realistic temporal progression of temperature in the mixed layer, but the thermodynamic balance of the deeper water is not considered. When the deeper water is considered, it is found that the empirical adjustment accounts for the entire heat input to the deeper water, and on an annual mean basis, it is considerably unbalanced. This reveals a flaw in this model concept and, although not entirely invalidating the model, it needs to be included as a caveat in its use.     

The evolving perceptual model of streamflow generation at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed

The Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW) is a 41-hectare forested catchment within the Piedmont Province of the Southeastern United States. Observations, experimentation, and numerical modelling have been conducted at Panola over the past 35 years. But to date, these studies have not been fully incorporated into a more comprehensive synthesis. Here we describe the evolving perceptual understanding of streamflow generation mechanisms at the PMRW. We show how the long-term study has enabled insights that were initially unforeseen but are also unachievable in short-term studies. In particular, we discuss how the accumulation of field evidence, detailed site characterization, and modelling enabled a priori hypotheses to be formed, later rejected, and then further refined through repeated field campaigns. The extensive characterization of the soil and bedrock provided robust process insights not otherwise achievable from hydrometric measurements and numerical modelling alone. We focus on two major aspects of streamflow generation: the role of hillslopes (and their connection to the riparian zone) and the role of catchment storage in controlling fluxes and transit times of water in the catchment. Finally, we present location-independent hypotheses based on our findings at PMRW and suggest ways to assess the representativeness of PMRW in the broader context of headwater watersheds.     

Error bounds in cascading regressions

Cascading regressions is a technique for predicting a value of a dependent variable when no paired measurements exist to perform a standard regression analysis. Biases in coefficients of a cascaded-regression line as well as error variance of points about the line are functions of the correlation coefficient between dependent and independent variables. Although this correlation cannot be computed because of the lack of paired data, bounds can be placed on errors through the required properties of the correlation coefficient. The potential meansquared error of a cascaded-regression prediction can be large, as illustrated through an example using geomorphologic data.     

Sources and sinks of methylgermanium in natural waters

New data have extended our understanding of the distribution and behavior of methylgermanium in the environment. Laboratory attempts to induce aerobic methylation with known biological and abiotic methylating agents were unsuccessful; this confirmed previous field observations of methylgermanium's unreactive behavior. However, biomethylation of inorganic germanium was observed in the anaerobic digestor of a sewage treatment plant, which suggested a terrestrial methanogenic source. Attempts to locate such a source in methanogenic swamps and their drainages reveal very low methylgermanium concentrations typical of other remote, pristine rivers. Polluted rivers have monomethylgermanium (MMGe) and dimethylgermanium (DMGe) concentrations 3–100 times higher than those of pristine rivers, which suggests an anthropogenic source of methylgermanium as a result of the synergistic effects of sewage treatment and coal-ash derived inorganic germanium contamination. A new high-precision profile of MMGe and DMGe in the Sargasso Sea shows conservative behavior with no vertical gradients. However, marine anoxic basins have both inorganic germanium enrichment and methylgermanium depletion, which suggests that of marine anaerobic processes are responsible for demethylating marine organogermanium. These results all suggest that methylgermanium is produced on the continents, is unreactive in the open ocean, and is destroyed in marine anoxic environments. The residence time of organogermanium in the sea, based on a continental source (pristine rivers), is at least 1 Ma, consistent with its unreactive nature, its observed distribution in the ocean, and rates of destruction in anoxic basins.     

An assessment of women’s access to natural resources through communal projects in South Africa

With the passing of the apartheid regime and its multi-faceted mechanisms of exclusion, women in rural South Africa have begun expanding their access to natural resources for livelihood enhancement. One of the ways this has occurred is through community-based organizations that focus on local production as a mechanism to transform natural resources into material goods. While this practice is nearly ubiquitous throughout sub-Saharan Africa, the apartheid regime was particularly effective in limiting access to natural resources, a phenomenon reversed by the current democratic government. In this paper, we assess the impact of organizational design on women’s livelihood systems as a means of alleviating rural poverty. We surveyed women on both more formal, or bureaucratic, organizations and more informal, or socially-embedded, organizations. After locating the discussion in the relevant gender, environment, and livelihoods literatures, we employ four concepts, organizational context, environmental entitlement, livelihood systems, and gender and power relations to assess the impact of organizational design on livelihood enhancement. Having found that women derived no significant material benefit from participation in either type of organization, we conclude that women are straddling two processes, neo-liberalization and neo-traditionalism, that impact gender and power relations. This situation has left women in vulnerable positions within their organizations and with little livelihood enhancement.