广东寒冷预警信号所示寒冷天气的时空分布特征

根据广东各地常规气象观测站建站至2006年地面观测资料,采用现行的寒冷预警信号定义,对广东省各地历史寒冷天气状况进行统计,结果表明,广东寒冷天气秋、冬、春3季在全省范围均可出现,达到寒冷预警信号发布标准的寒冷天气最长可持续2个多月;寒冷天气一般始于粤北,也终于粤北;南部出现寒冷天气的频率少于北部;气温降幅程度和最低气温的极端值,北部的寒冷程度始终甚于南部。黄色信号代表的寒冷天气出现的频率随年代的变化不大,而橙色和红色信号代表的极端寒冷天气出现的频率随年代的推移有减少的趋势。     

基于集合预报的异常温度预报产品在中国的应用分析

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)第五代全球再分析资料(ERA5)构建模式气候,应用ECMWF集合预报,采用“集合预报标准化异常预报法”,针对最高和最低气温构建中国地区集合平均异常温度预报和异常温度概率预报产品,并与极端预报指数(extreme forecast index,EFI)开展检验和对比分析预报性能,并基于“异常温度影响矩阵”,构建了异常温度影响程度预报指数,通过异常温度事件个例探讨相关产品的预报应用。结果表明:基于ECMWF的ERA5和集合预报构建的集合平均异常温度预报产品对我国夏季和冬季异常温度事件均有比较好的预报效果,预报性能好于或接近EFI,可作为业务上对异常温度事件预报的支撑产品。异常温度概率预报产品可以体现集合成员中的预报异常温度事件的信息,在中期预报时效对发现早期异常温度事件信号有优势,并可反映对异常天气预报的不确定性信息。异常温度影响程度预报指数结合了异常天气概率预报信息和异常程度预报信息,可对异常温度时间给出客观定量的预报结果,对一次异常低温事件的个例预报证明该指数有比较好的预报效果,对异常温度事件的预报和早期科学预警有一定指示意义和业务应用前景。     

广西隆安都结剖面下石炭统都安组上部鲕粒类型及其地质意义

鲕粒是一类特殊的沉积颗粒,为古气候和古海洋环境的重要指示器。为了深入认识此类特殊颗粒的成因机制、形成环境及地质意义,对广西隆安地区都结剖面下石炭统都安组上部含鲕粒地层开展了古生物学、沉积学和岩相学研究。研究区共识别出5种主要的鲕粒类型:放射状纹层鲕粒(O1)、规则同心放射状纹层鲕粒(O2)、不规则同心放射状纹层鲕粒(O3)、泥晶鲕粒(O4-A和O4-B)和复合鲕粒(O5)。各类鲕粒的显微组构和沉积环境指示其具有不同的形成过程,其中水动力条件影响和控制着鲕粒的发育和分布情况。研究区含鲕粒地层形成于维宪期末-谢尔普霍夫期,恰好对应早石炭世晚期冰川作用的开始。受冰川作用影响,全球海平面频繁波动,研究区地处低纬度地区并以浅滩和潮坪沉积环境为主,为鲕粒的形成提供了适宜的水体条件,即温暖、动荡的浅水环境。此外,含鲕粒岩层内广泛发育钙质微生物和微生物席,说明微生物活动在研究区较为常见,可能与鲕粒的形成过程具有一定的关联。     

四川义敦地区早中三叠世义敦群岩相古地理

经过对四川义敦地区中下三叠统党思组、列衣纽涉及到的9幅1：5万区调图幅和18条剖面、沉积等厚线的综合分析研究,认为该区主体部分在早中三叠世沉积环境经历了深海盆地海底扇中-外扇相→深海盆地浊流相→下斜坡相→上斜坡相→外陆棚相→外陆棚-上斜坡相的演化。岩相古地理图上的沉积等厚线显示,该区有上麻绒盆地和义敦盆地等2个沉积中心,在拉纳山一带还出出现有拗陷盆地。     

新疆塔里木盆地温宿凸起新温地1井、2井获高产工业油流

正1研究目的(Objective)温宿凸起位于新疆塔里木盆地西北部,面积约4500 km~2。石油企业先后在该地区部署实施二维地震测线约3200 km,探井4口(阿1井、温参1井、温宿1井、阿苏2井),油气勘探历经50余年未取得突破,并退出油气勘查权。重新评价认识该地区的石油地质条件并获得油气突破是本次工作的主要目的(图1)。     

What Drives the Decadal Variability of Global Tropical Storm Days from 1965 to 2019?

The tropical storm day(TSD)is a combined measure of genesis and lifespan.It reflects tropical cyclone(TC)overall activity,yet its variability has rarely been studied,especially globally.Here we show that the global total TSDs exhibit pronounced interannual(3-6 years)and decadal(10 years)variations over the past five-to-six decades without a significant trend.The leading modes of the interannual and decadal variability of global TSD feature similar patterns in the western Pacific and Atlantic,but different patterns in the Eastern Pacific and the Southern Indian Ocean.The interannual and decadal leading modes are primarily linked to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),respectively.The TSDs-ENSO relationship has been steady during the entire 55-year period,but the TSDs-PDO relationship has experienced a breakdown in the 1980 s.We find that the decadal variation of TSD in the Pacific is associated with the PDO sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific(PDO-E),while that in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean is associated with the PDO SST anomalies in the western Pacific(PDO-W).However,the PDO-E and PDO-W SST anomalies are poorly coupled in the 1980 s,and this"destructive PDO"pattern results in a breakdown of the TSDs-PDO relationship.The results here have an important implication for seasonal to decadal predictions of global TSD.     

坡面流层流区动力学特性

为完善坡面水流的基础理论研究,基于定床水槽试验,以甘油溶液为试验流体,采用超声波测量技术,进行了4种粗糙度、5种坡度和13种单宽流量条件下的组合试验,研究了坡面流层流区的动力学特性及滚波特征。研究结果表明:在雷诺数为8~160的范围内,流态指数在理论值0.33附近波动,且随粗糙度的增大呈现先增大后减小的变化趋势,在粗糙度为0.10 mm附近达到峰值;阻力系数受坡度和粗糙度影响显著,可较好地由坡度、粗糙度和雷诺数的关系式表示;随着雷诺数的增大,滚波波速和波峰均呈幂函数形式递增,滚波周期大小无明显变化;坡度的增大会使层流失稳临界单宽流量减小,粗糙度的增大会使临界弗劳德数的均值减小。     

2004年6月29日西安市突发性暴雨成因分析

通过对鲁西南一次区域性大暴雨的分析表明:除有利的大尺度环流背景以外,超低空急流是大暴雨不稳定能量和水汽的主要输送带,高能级、大面积的不稳定能量的积累和补充,有利的物理量场的配置,构成了这次大暴雨过程的维持和增强。暴雨落区与超低空急流前部最大风速切变区的位置对应较好。     

对电感耦合等离子体质谱法测定的地下水中Ag元素不确定度的评定

采用不确定度连续传递模型,对电感耦合等离子体质谱法测定的地下水中Ag元素的不确定度进行评定。采用双误差回归的方式对标准曲线进行拟合,通过计算出各分量的不确定度,合成得到测量结果的总不确定度。当实际样品中Ag的含量较低时,其曲线拟合产生的不确定度影响较大,甚至成为主导因素。     

Xiba Granitic Pluton in the Qinling Orogenic Belt,Central China: Its Petrogenesis and Tectonic Implications

Xiba granitic pluton is located in South Qinling tectonic domain of the Qinling orogenic belt and consists mainly of granodiorite and monzogranite with significant number of microgranular quartz dioritic enclaves. SHRIMP zircon U–Pb isotopic dating reveals that the quartz dioritic enclaves formed at 214±3 Ma, which is similar to the age of their host monzogranite (218±1 Ma). The granitoids belong to high-K calc-alkaline series, and are characterized by enriched LILEs relative to HFSEs with negative Nb, Ta and Ti anomalies, and right-declined REE patterns with (La/Yb)N ratios ranging from 15.83 to 26.47 and δEu values from 0.78 to 1.22 (mean= 0.97). Most of these samples from Xiba granitic pluton exhibit εNd(t) values of ?8.79 to ?5.38, depleted mantle Nd model ages (TDM) between 1.1 Ga and 1.7 Ga, and initial Sr isotopic ratios (87Sr/86Sr)i from 0.7061 to 0.7082, indicating a possible Meso- to Paleoproterozoic lower crust source region, with exception of samples XB01-2-1 and XB10-1 displaying higher (87Sr/86Sr)i values of 0.779 and 0.735, respectively, which suggests a contamination of the upper crustal materials. Quartz dioritic enclaves are interpreted as the result of rapid crystallization fractionation during the parent magmatic emplacement, as evidenced by similar age, texture, geochemical, and Sr-Nd isotopic features with their host rocks. Characteristics of the petrological and geochemical data reveal that the parent magma of Xiba granitoids was produced by a magma mingling process. The upwelling asthenosphere caused a high heat flow and the mafic magma was underplated into the bottom of the lower continent crust, which caused the partial melting of the lower continent crustal materials. This geodynamic process generated the mixing parent magma between mafic magma from depleted mantle and felsic magma derived from the lower continent crust. Integrated petrogenesis and tectonic discrimination with regional tectonic evolution of the Qinling orogen, it is suggested that the granitoids are most likely products in a post-collision tectonic setting.