Data assimilation for a coastal area morphodynamic model: Morecambe Bay

This paper investigates the use of data assimilation in coastal area morphodynamic modelling using Morecambe Bay as a study site. A simple model of the bay has been enhanced with a data assimilation scheme to better predict large-scale changes in bathymetry observed in the bay over a 3-year period. The 2DH decoupled morphodynamic model developed for the work is described, as is the optimal interpolation scheme used to assimilate waterline observations into the model run. Each waterline was acquired from a SAR satellite image and is essentially a contour of the bathymetry at some level within the inter-tidal zone of the bay. For model parameters calibrated against validation observations, model performance is good, even without data assimilation. However the use of data assimilation successfully compensates for a particular failing of the model, and helps to keep the model bathymetry on track. It also improves the ability of the model to predict future bathymetry. Although the benefits of data assimilation are demonstrated using waterline observations, any observations of morphology could potentially be used. These results suggest that data assimilation should be considered for use in future coastal area morphodynamic models.     

The impact of the M2 internal tide on data-assimilative model estimates of the surface tide

We use a synthetic data experiment to assess the accuracy of ocean tides estimated from satellite altimetry data, with emphasis on the impact of the phase-locked internal tide, which has a surface expression of several centimeters near its sites of genesis. Previous tidal estimates have regarded this signal as a random measurement error; however, it is deterministic and not scale-separated from the barotropic (surface) tide around complex bathymetric features. The synthetic data experiments show that the internal tide has a negligible impact on the barotropic tidal fields inferred under these circumstances, and the barotropic dissipation (a quadratic functional of the tidal fields) is in good agreement with the energetics of the three-dimensional regional primitive equations model which is the source of the synthetic data.     

Effect of native and invasive cordgrass on Macoma petalum density, growth, and isotopic signatures

Ecosystem engineers can influence community and ecosystem dynamics by controlling resources, modifying the flow of energy or biomass, or changing physical characteristics of the habitat. Invasive hybrid cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora × Spartina foliosa) is an ecosystem engineer in salt marshes in San Francisco Bay, California, U.S.A. that raises intertidal elevations and may be either increasing C₄ plant carbon input into food webs or tying up carbon in a form that is not usable by consumers. A manipulative experiment compared abundance, growth, and stable isotope (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) composition of the clam Macoma petalum (=M. balthica) among native marsh, hybrid Spartina, and mudflats in central San Francisco Bay. We found higher densities (individuals m⁻²) of M. petalum on mudflats compared to either native or hybrid Spartina (p < 0.001). Macoma petalum shell growth was significantly greater in mudflats than in either vegetation type in 2002 (p = 0.005) but not 2003. Differences in shell growth between native and hybrid Spartina were not significant. Stable isotope results showed differences between habitats in δ¹³C but not δ¹⁵N. Carbon signatures of M. petalum placed in Spartina were much more depleted than the isotopic signature of Spartina. Neither native nor hybrid Spartina appears to be a significant carbon source for M. petalum in San Francisco Bay, and we found no evidence that hybrid Spartina contributes carbon to M. petalum beyond what is provided by S. foliosa, despite the hybrid's much greater biomass. Our results show that loss of mudflat habitat, rather than increased input of C₄ carbon, is the greatest effect of the invasion of hybrid Spartina on M. petalum.     

Recruitment patterns of Serpula vermicularis L. (Polychaeta, Serpulidae) in Loch Creran, Scotland

This study aimed to contribute to conservation management of reefs of Serpula vermicularis by increasing understanding of the factors influencing larval settlement. The study was carried out in Loch Creran, which supports the most extensive known development of S. vermicularis reefs in the world. Settlement plates were deployed to examine the influence of season, depth, reef density, substrate type and orientation. Monthly deployment of plates revealed settlement of S. vermicularis to occur predominantly from mid-June to mid-October, peaking in late August to early September. Settlement of Pomatoceros spp. peaked much earlier, in late May to early June. Deployment of plates at different depths revealed a marked reduction in S. vermicularis settlement intensity between 6 and 12 m. As this corresponds with the deeper limit of the peripheral fringe of serpulid reefs in the loch, it is suggested that this limit is imposed by a depth-correlated settlement response, rather than reduction in available substrata. Comparisons of various substrata showed a preference by S. vermicularis larvae for a slate over a scallop substrate and no evidence of enhanced recruitment to occupied or unoccupied tubes of S. vermicularis, suggesting that gregarious attraction is unlikely to be a factor causing reef formation. Settlement onto the upper side of a horizontal scallop substrate was found to be insignificant in comparison with the underside or a vertically orientated scallop. Evidence for the role of light in controlling the depth and substrate-orientation preferences of S. vermicularis larvae is discussed. Based on the results of this study, recommendations are made regarding remediation of areas suffering reef damage.     

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational data assimilation systems: Part II - Performance and application to the California Current System

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation systems have been systematically applied to the mesoscale circulation environment of the California Current to demonstrate the performance and practical utility of the various components of ROMS 4D-Var. In particular, we present a comparison of three approaches to 4D-Var, namely: the primal formulation of the incremental strong constraint approach; the dual formulation “physical-space statistical analysis system”; and the dual formulation indirect representer approach. In agreement with theoretical considerations all three approaches converge to the same ocean circulation estimate when using the same observations and prior information. However, the rate of convergence of the dual formulation was found to be inferior to that of the primal formulation. Other aspects of the 4D-Var performance that relate to the use of multiple outer-loops, preconditioning, and the weak constraint are also explored. A systematic evaluation of the impact of the various components of the 4D-Var control vector (i.e. the initial conditions, surface forcing and open boundary conditions) is also presented. It is shown that correcting for uncertainties in the model initial conditions exerts the largest influence on the ability of the model to fit the available observations. Various important diagnostics of 4D-Var are also examined, including estimates of the posterior error, the information content of the observation array, and innovation-based consistency checks on the prior error assumptions. Using these diagnostic tools, we find that more than 90% of the observations assimilated into the model provide redundant information. This is a symptom of the large percentage of satellite data that are used and to some extent the nature of the data processing employed. This is the second in a series of three papers describing the ROMS 4D-Var systems.     

Numerical studies of methane production from Class 1 gas hydrate accumulations enhanced with carbon dioxide injection

Class 1 gas hydrate accumulations are characterized by a permeable hydrate-bearing interval overlying a permeable interval with mobile gas, sandwiched between two impermeable intervals. Depressurization-induced dissociation is currently the favored technology for producing gas from Class 1 gas hydrate accumulations. The depressurization production technology requires heat transfer from the surrounding environment to sustain dissociation as the temperature drops toward the hydrate equilibrium point and leaves the reservoir void of gas hydrate. Production of gas hydrate accumulations by exchanging carbon dioxide with methane in the clathrate structure has been demonstrated in laboratory experiments and proposed as a field-scale technology. The carbon dioxide exchange technology has the potential for yielding higher production rates and mechanically stabilizing the reservoir by maintaining hydrate saturations. We used numerical simulation to investigate the advantages and disadvantages of using carbon dioxide injection to enhance the production of methane from Class 1 gas hydrate accumulations. Numerical simulations in this study were primarily concerned with the mechanisms and approaches of carbon dioxide injection to investigate whether methane production could be enhanced through this approach. To avoid excessive simulation execution times, a five-spot well pattern with a 500-m well spacing was approximated using a two-dimensional domain having well boundaries on the vertical sides and impermeable boundaries on the horizontal sides. Impermeable over- and under burden were included to account for heat transfer into the production interval. Simulation results indicate that low injection pressures can be used to reduce secondary hydrate formation and that direct contact of injected carbon dioxide with the methane hydrate present in the formation is limited due to bypass through the higher permeability gas zone.     

Depositional architecture and sequence stratigraphy of the Karoo basin floor to shelf edge succession, Laingsburg depocentre, South Africa

The Laingsburg depocentre of the SW Karoo Basin, South Africa preserves a well-exposed 1200 m thick succession of upper Permian strata that record the early filling of a basin during an icehouse climate. Uniformly fine-grained sandstones were derived from far-field granitic sources, possibly in Patagonia, although the coeval staging and delivery systems are not preserved. Early condensed shallow marine deposits are overlain by distal basin plain siltstone-prone turbidites and volcanic ashes. An order of magnitude increase in siliciclastic input to the basin plain is represented by up to 270 m of siltstone with thin sandstone turbidites (Vischkuil Formation). The upper Vischkuil Formation comprises three depositional sequences, each bounded by a regionally developed zone of soft sediment deformation and associated 20-45 m thick debrite that represent the initiation of a major sand delivery system. The overlying 300 m thick sandy basin-floor fan system (Unit A) is divisible into three composite sequences arranged in a progradational-aggradational-retrogradational stacking pattern, followed by up to 40 m of basin-wide hemipelagic claystone. This claystone contains Interfan A/B, a distributive lobe system that lies 10 m beneath Unit B, a sandstone-dominated succession that averages 150 m thickness and is interpreted to represent a toe of slope channelized lobe system. Unit B and the A/B interfan together comprise 4 depositional sequences in a composite sequence with an overall basinward-stepping stacking pattern, overlain by 30 m of hemipelagic claystone. The overlying 400 m thick submarine slope succession (Fort Brown Formation) is characterized by 10-120 m thick sand-prone to heterolithic packages separated by 30-70 m thick claystone units. On the largest scale the slope stratigraphy is defined by two major cycles interpreted as composite sequence sets. The lower cycle comprises lithostratigraphic Units B/C, C and D while the upper cycle includes lithostratigraphic Units D/E, E and F. In each case a sandy basal composite sequence is represented by an intraslope lobe (Units B/C and D/E respectively). The second composite sequence in each cycle (Units C and E respectively) is characterized by slope channel-levee systems with distributive lobes 20-30 km down dip. The uppermost composite sequence in each cycle (Units D and F respectively) are characterised by deeply entrenched slope valley systems. Most composite sequences comprise three sequences separated by thin (<5 m thick) claystones. Architectural style is similar at individual sequence scale for comparable positions within each composite sequence set and each composite sequence. The main control on stratigraphic development is interpreted as late icehouse glacio-eustasy but along-strike changes associated with changing shelf edge delivery systems and variable bathymetry due to differential substrate compaction complicate the resultant stratigraphy.     

The transgressive infill of an inherited-valley system: The Springhill Formation (lower Cretaceous) in southern Austral Basin, Argentina

The Berriasian-Valanginian Springhill Formation of the Austral Basin of southern South America comprises fluvial to marine deposits. In order to interpret depositional systems and unravel the stratigraphic architecture of this unit in the southern region of the basin (Tierra del Fuego Province, Argentina), 500 m of cores combined with well-log data from 41 wells were studied. Facies associations corresponding to fluvial (A1-A6), estuarine (B1-B5) and open-marine (C1-C4) depositional environments were identified. These facies associations succeed each other vertically across the entire study area (6800 km²) forming a ∼120-m-thick transgressive succession. This unit filled a north-south-oriented valley system, developed in the underlying Jurassic volcanic complex.Lowstand fluvial deposits of the first stage of the valley-system fill occur in downdip segments of the system above a sequence boundary (SB). These fluvial deposits are overlain by coastal-plain and tide-dominated estuarine strata across an initial transgressive surface (ITS). In the northern sector the earliest valley infill is characterized by a transgressive fluvial succession, overlying a merged SB/ITS that is probably time-equivalent of marginal-marine deposits of the southern sector. The fluvial strata in the north are overlain by wave-dominated estuarine deposits. A drastic change to open-marine conditions is marked by a marine flooding surface, with local evidence of marine erosion (FS-RS). Open-marine strata are thin (<10 m) and dominated by lower-shoreface and offshore-transition deposits. They are capped by a younger flooding surface (FS), which represents the onset to offshore conditions across the study area due to a continuous long-term transgression that persisted until the Barremian.Although the interpreted depositional systems and stratigraphic architecture of the Springhill Formation resemble transgressive incised-valley-fill successions, the greater thickness and larger size of the Springhill valleys suggest inherited rift topography rather than valley development during a relative sea-level fall.     

The continent-ocean transition at the southeastern margin of the South China Sea

The South China Sea formed by magma-poor, or intermediate volcanic rifting in the Paleogene. We investigate the structure of the continent-ocean transition (COT) at its southern margin, off NW Palawan between the continental blocks of Reed Bank and the islands of Palawan and Calamian. Several surveys, recorded by the BGR from 1979 to 2008, established a comprehensive database of regional seismic lines, accompanied with magnetic and gravity profiles.We interpret two major rifted basins, extending in the NE direction across the shelf and slope, separated by a structural high of non volcanic origin.The continent-ocean transition is interpreted at the seaward limit of the continental crust, when magnetic spreading anomalies terminate some 80-100 km farther north. The area in between displays extensive volcanism - as manifest by extrusions that occasionally reach and cut the seafloor, by dykes, and by presumed basaltic lava flows - occurring after break-up.The COT is highly variable along the NW Palawan slope: One type shows a distinct outer ridge at the COT with a steep modern seafloor relief. The other type is characterised by rotated fault blocks, bounded by listric normal faults ramping down to a common detachment surface. Half-grabens developed above a strongly eroded pre-rift basement. The seafloor relief is smooth across this other type of COT.We suggest the pre-rift lithospheric configuration had major influence on the formation of the COT, besides transfer zones. Volcanic domains, confined to the north of competent crustal blocks correlate with the style of the COT.Gravity modelling revealed an extremely thinned crust across the shelf. We propose a depth-dependent extension model with crust being decoupled from mantle lithosphere, explaining the discrepancy of subsidence observed across the South China Sea region.     

Examining locally driven climate change policy efforts in three Pacific states

Local jurisdictions play a critical role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study analyzes the theoretical framework of locally driven climate change actions and uses geographic information system (GIS) to map local jurisdictions’ climate change policy efforts in three Pacific states - California, Oregon, and Washington. The results of our study indicate statistically significant differences in geographic clusters and variations across jurisdictions. An Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model was used to examine climate risk, emission stress, and socioeconomic context variables to detect influence on local climate change policy efforts. The explanatory results indicate that coastal proximity, population density, vehicles emission, and education variables significantly influence local jurisdictions’ climate change actions. The findings contribute to local organizational decision model research and can help local communities to develop more effective climate change policies.