Stochastic evaluation of simple pairing approaches to reconstruct incomplete rainfall time series

Two-station pairing approaches are routinely used to infill missing information in incomplete rainfall databases. We evaluated the performance of three simple methodologies to reconstruct incomplete time series in presence of variable nonlinear correlation between data pairs. Nonlinearity stems from the statistics describing the marginal peak-over-threshold (POT) values of rainfall events. A Monte Carlo analysis was developed to quantitatively assess expected errors from the use of chronological pairing (CP) with linear and nonlinear regression and frequency pairing (FP). CP is based on a priori selection of regression functions, while FP is based on matching the probability of non-exceedance of an event from one time series with the probability of non-exceedance of a similar event from another time series. We adopted a generalized Pareto (GP) model to describe POT events, and a t-copula algorithm to generate reference nonlinearly correlated pairs of random temporal distributions distributed according with the GP model. The results suggest that the optimal methodology strongly depends on GP statistics. In general, CP seems to provide the lowest errors when GP statistics were similar and correlation became linear; we found that a power-2 function performs well for the selected statistics when the number of missing points is limited. FP outperforms the other methods when POT statistics are different and variables are markedly nonlinearly correlated. Ensemble-based results seem to be supported by the analysis of observed precipitation at two real-world gauge stations.     

The instability of an electron beam with a finite radius in a boundless plasma

Within the framework of a linear theory, the instability of an electron beam with a finite radius in a cold magnetised boundless plasma is considered. It is shown that a finite beam dimension influences the generation of quasi-potential waves in two aspects: the perpendicular wave number is quantised so that the frequencies of the waves are subjected to strong selection; a new kind of instability appears due to wave energy losses by emission into surrounding space. Growth rate dependence of wave numbers and frequencies is investigated for typical parameters of experiments with electron beams in space.     

Specific Features of the Structure and Dynamics of Waters and Their Influence on the Distribution of Krill and Salpae in the Weddell and Scotia Seas in March–April, 1997–1998

We present the results of biological and oceanographic investigations performed in the Weddell and Scotia Seas within the framework of the first (January–June, 1997) and second (January–June, 1998) Ukrainian Antarctic marine expeditions. We reveal some regularities in the space distribution of the aggregations of krill and salpae depending on the abiotic (hydrophysical) environmental factors and discuss possible mechanisms promoting the formation of aggregations of krill and salpae in the Antarctic waters.     

Energy of the Jets of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and of Their Eddies in the Surface Layer of the Southern Ocean

Oceanology - The kinetic energy of six jets of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and of the cyclonic and anticyclonic mesoscale eddies generated by these jets is studied in application to the...     

On the equation of state for the Λ field

The recently detected accelerated expansion of the Universe is related to the existence of a new type of matter called the Λ field or quintessence. Constraints were obtained on its equation of state from the absence of clustering of this matter on scales much smaller than the cosmological horizon. The question of how these constraints affect the possibility of fitting the accelerated expansion by such cosmological models as the Chaplygin gas model is discussed.     

Scattering properties of planetary regolith analogs

The physics of scattering of electromagnetic waves by media in which the particles are in contact, such as planetary regoliths, has been thought to be relatively well understood when the particles are larger than the wavelength. However, this is not true when the particles are comparable with or smaller than the wavelength. We have measured the scattering parameters of planetary regolith analogs consisting of suites of well-sorted abrasives whose particles ranged from larger to smaller than the wavelength. We measured the variation of reflectance as the phase angle varied from 0.05° to 140°. The following parameters of the media were then deduced: the single scattering albedo, single scattering phase function, transport mean free path, and scattering, absorption, and extinction coefficients. A scattering model based on the equation of radiative transfer was empirically able to describe quantitatively the variation of intensity with angle for each sample. Thus, such models can be used to characterize scattering from regoliths even when the particles are smaller than the wavelength. The scattering parameters were remarkably insensitive to particle size. These results are contrary to theoretical predictions, but are consistent with earlier measurements of alumina abrasives that were restricted to small phase angles. They imply that a basic assumption made by virtually all regolith scattering models, that the regolith particles are the fundamental scattering units of the medium, is incorrect. Our understanding of scattering by regoliths appears to be incomplete, even when the particles are larger than the wavelength.     

Seasonal change in the deep atmosphere of Uranus

We present high-resolution radio maps of Uranus, made from data collected in 1994 at wavelengths of 2 and 6 cm, which show large-scale changes occurring deep and rapidly in the troposphere. Brightness features in these maps are significantly different from those observed throughout the 1980's. These differences are not due to the changing viewing geometry, but result from atmospheric changes in the 5 to 50 bar region. All the observations show strong latitudinal variations in absorber abundance and/or temperature, causing the South Pole to appear brighter than lower latitudes. The transition between bright pole and darker latitudes is always near −45°, but between 1989 and 1994 the contrast between the regions increased significantly. This suggests that the large-scale circulation in the upper 50 bars of the uranian Southern Hemisphere changed. Older, disk-averaged microwave observations have suggested that seasonal variability occurs, but these new maps are the first to provide detailed timing and location information which can be used to test dynamical models.