Soil moisture variation and plant water stress at the Hartheim Scots pine plantation

Summary During two measurement campaigns in 1992 (the Hartheim Experiment HartX- and an additional experiment in autumn), measurements of soil moisture were carried out in aPinus sylvestris stand at Hartheim on the Oberrhein. Several methods were used to determine soil water status. They were compared in terms of suitability for estimating stand evapotranspiration (ET) via soil water depletion. Measurements of tree water potential suggested that conductance of the trees was affected by soil water depletion during the period of the HartX campaign in spring 1992. We interpret the observations to indicate a lesser influence of soil water availability on tree transpiration during the autumn experiment.Eddy correlation and xylem sapflow measurements provided reference ET values with which to compare the stand ET calculations based on soil moisture measurements. Profile measurements of soil moisture showed that particularly in springtime when the lower soil layers are saturated with water, the water transport from depths below the major rooting zone is a very important factor affecting evaluation of stand ET. Decreases in soil water storage may be determined best with permanently installed soil moisture sensors such as used in tensiometric or TDR measurements that provide high resolution of changes over time.With 8 Figures     

2020年7月西北太平洋和南海“空台”环流特征分析

2020年7月西北太平洋和南海出现了史无前例的“空台”事件。利用NCEP再分析数据集、中国气象局（CMA）台风最佳路径等资料研究了此次“空台”现象的大尺度环流背景及动力和热力学特征。使用台风潜在生成指数（DGPI）分析发现2020年7月大尺度环流背景不利于台风生成,环流系统的异常通过影响对流层垂直风切变和垂直运动限制了台风的活动。2020年7月马斯克林高压较常年明显偏西偏弱,导致索马里急流强度减弱,越赤道气流不活跃,菲律宾以东洋面和南海海域盛行一致的偏东气流,历史同期活跃在该区域的季风槽无法建立,从而不利于热带扰动的生成。北半球极涡主体偏向西半球一侧,影响东半球冷空气势力较弱,副热带高压位置偏西;南亚高压较历史同期偏强且偏东,其东侧强盛的偏东气流将洋中槽截断,在西北太平洋区域出现反气旋性环流,该区域下沉气流增强,导致副热带高压强度增强,对流层中层强烈的下沉气流抑制了台风的生成和发展。此外,受中高层环流系统异常的影响,7月菲律宾吕宋岛以东洋面和南海地区环境垂直风切变较常年偏高2～4 m/s,南海部分海域偏高达4～8 m/s,同时该区域内异常偏强的下沉气流导致对流层低层相对湿度偏低,大气层...     

Effects of cloud types on cloud-radiation interaction over the Asian monsoon region

This paper quantifies the sensitivity of radiation budget quantities to different cloud types over the Asian monsoon region using the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. Multiple regression was used to estimate the radiative effects of individual cloud type. It was observed that the regression performed better when the solution was constrained with clear sky fluxes, which is evident by an improvement in R ² statistics. The sensitivity coefficients calculated for the Asian monsoon region reveal that, while the LWCRCF and SWCRF will be most vulnerable to changes in cloud cover of deep convective clouds, NETCRF will be susceptible to changes in the nimbostratus clouds. Although the cloud radiative forcing of individual cloud types are found to be similar in sign to previous global findings, their magnitudes are found to vary. It is seen that cirrus clouds play an important role in governing the radiative behavior of this region.     

Climatology of extratropical cyclones over the South American–southern oceans sector

A climatology of extratropical cyclones is presented. Extratropical cyclones, their main characteristics and their predominant tracks, as well as their interannual variability, affect weather in South America. For that purpose, a storm track database has been compiled by applying a cyclone tracking scheme to six-hourly sea level pressure fields, available from the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalyses II for the 1979–2003 period. The spatial distribution of the cyclogenesis frequency shows two main centers: one around Northern Argentina, Uruguay, and Southern Brazil in all seasons and the other near to the North Antarctic Peninsula. The lifetime of extratropical cyclones in the South American sector exhibits small seasonality, being typically of the order of 3.0 days during most of the year and slightly higher (3.5 days) in austral summer. The distance travelled by the cyclones formed in the South American sector tends to be smaller than the total paths found in other areas of the Southern Hemisphere. A k-mean clustering technique is used to summarize the analysis of the 25-year climatology of cyclone tracks. Three clusters were found: one storm-track cluster in Northeast Argentina; a second one west of the Andes Cordillera; and a third cluster located to the north of the Antarctic Peninsula (around the Weddell Sea). The influence of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in the variability of extratropical cyclones is explored, and some signals of the impacts of the variability of the AAO can be observed in the position of the extratropical cyclones around 40°S, while the impacts on the intensity is detected around 55°S.     

Some characteristics of ozone profiles above Hong Kong

Summary Analysis of ozonesonde data shows that in the lower troposphere above Hong Kong, there is a relative maximum with respect to height in all seasons except winter. In the upper troposphere, there is with respect to height a relative minimum in the seasonally averaged ozone mixing ratio in winter. Ozone mixing ratios in the upper troposphere in winter and spring can be significantly enhanced by stratospheric intrusions associated with the passage of cold fronts and upper cut-off lows.For Hong Kong, the seasonally averaged total ozone has the highest value in spring, and the lowest in winter. The seasonally averaged total tropospheric ozone also has the highest value in spring, but the lowest in summer. In a relative sense, total tropospheric ozone contributes most to the total ozone in spring and the least in summer.The phase of the total ozone anomaly above Hong Kong is influenced by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), with the positive anomaly associated with the easterly phase of QBO, and the negative anomaly the westerly phase.     

Fine-resolution regional climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones near Australia

Fine-resolution regional climate simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs) are performed over the eastern Australian region. The horizontal resolution (30 km) is fine enough that a good climatological simulation of observed tropical cyclone formation is obtained using the observed tropical cyclone lower wind speed threshold (17 m s^–1). This simulation is performed without the insertion of artificial vortices (bogussing). The simulated occurrence of cyclones, measured in numbers of days of cyclone activity, is slightly greater than observed. While the model-simulated distribution of central pressures resembles that observed, simulated wind speeds are generally rather lower, due to weaker than observed pressure gradients close to the centres of the simulated storms. Simulations of the effect of climate change are performed. Under enhanced greenhouse conditions, simulated numbers of TCs do not change very much compared with those simulated for the current climate, nor do regions of occurrence. There is a 56% increase in the number of simulated storms with maximum winds greater than 30 m s^–1 (alternatively, a 26% increase in the number of storms with central pressures less than 970 hPa). In addition, there is an increase in the number of intense storms simulated south of 30°S. This increase in simulated maximum storm intensity is consistent with previous studies of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclone wind speeds.     

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Statistical models for the assessment of nitrate contamination in urban groundwater using GIS

The purpose of this study is to develop statistical models for groundwater quality assessment in urban areas using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To develop the models, the concentrations of nitrate (expressed as nitrogen, NO₃-N), which are different according to the type of land use, well depth and distribution of rainfall, were analyzed in the Seoul (the capital of South Korea) area. Data such as land use, location of wells and groundwater quality data for nitrate contamination were collected and a database constructed within GIS. The distribution of NO₃-N concentrations is not normal, and the results of the Mann-Whitney U-test analysis show the difference of NO₃-N concentration by well depth and by distribution of rainfall. In both the shallow and deep wells, the radius of influence is 200 m in the dry season and 250 m in the rainy season, showing the tendency to increase in the rainy season. The results of correlation and regression analysis indicate that mixed residential and business areas and cropped field areas are likely to be the major contributor of increasing NO₃-N concentration. Land uses are better correlated with NO₃-N in deep wells than in shallow wells.     

Eclogite thermobarometry: The consistency between conventional thermobarometry and forward phase-equilibrium modelling

Eclogite thermobarometry is crucial for constraining the depths and temperatures to which oceanic and continental crust subduct. However, obtaining the pressure and temperature (P–T) conditions of eclogites is complex as they commonly display high-variance mineral assemblages, and the mineral compositions only vary slightly with P–T. In this contribution, we present a comparison between two independent and commonly used thermobarometric approaches for eclogites: conventional thermobarometry and forward phase-equilibrium modelling. We assess how consistent the thermobarometric calculations are using the garnet–clinopyroxene–phengite barometer and garnet–clinopyroxene thermometer with predictions from forward modelling (i.e. comparing the relative differences between approaches). Our results show that the overall mismatch in methods is typically ±0.2–0.3 GPa and ±29–42°C although differences as large as 80°C and 0.7 GPa are possible for a few narrow ranges of P–T conditions in the forward models. Such mismatch is interpreted as the relative differences among methods, and not as absolute uncertainties or accuracies for either method. For most of the investigated P–T conditions, the relatively minor differences between methods means that the choice in thermobarometric method itself is less important for geological interpretation than careful sample characterization and petrographic interpretation for deriving P–T from eclogites. Although thermobarometry is known to be sensitive to the assumed X_Fe³⁺ of a rock (or mineral), the relative differences between methods are not particularly sensitive to the choice of bulk-rock X_Fe³⁺, except at high temperatures (>650°C, amphibole absent) and for very large differences in assumed X_Fe³⁺ (0–0.5). We find that the most important difference between approaches is the activity–composition (a–x) relations, as opposed to the end-member thermodynamic data or other aspects of experimental calibration. When equivalent a–x relations are used in the conventional barometer, P calculations are nearly identical to phase-equilibrium models (ΔP < 0.1). To further assess the implications of these results for real rocks, we also evaluate common mathematical optimizations of reaction constants used for obtaining the maximum P–T with conventional thermobarometric approaches (e.g. using the highest aGrs² × aPrp in garnet and Si content in phengite, and the lowest aDi in clinopyroxene). These approaches should be used with caution, because they may not represent the compositions of equilibrium mineral assemblages at eclogite facies conditions and therefore systematically bias P–T calculations. Assuming method accuracy, geological meaningful P_max at a typical eclogite facies temperature of ~660°C will be obtained by using the greatest aDi, aCel, and aPrp and lowest aGrs and aMs; garnet and clinopyroxene with the lowest Fe²⁺/Mg ratios may yield geological meaningful T_max at a typical eclogite facies pressure of 2.5 GPa.     

On the evaluation of the gravity effects of polyhedral bodies and a consistent treatment of related singularities

We show that the singularities which can affect the computation of the gravity effects (potential, gravity and tensor gradient fields) can be systematically addressed by invoking distribution theory and suitable formulas of differential calculus. Thus, differently from previous contributions on the subject, the use of a-posteriori corrections of the formulas derived in absence of singularities can be ruled out. The general approach presented in the paper is further specialized to the case of polyhedral bodies and detailed for a rectangular prism having a constant mass density. With reference to this last case, we derive novel expressions for the related gravitational field, as well as for its first and second derivative, at an observation point coincident with a prism vertex and show that they turn out to be more compact than the ones reported in the specialized literature.