Global warming,population growth,and natural resources for food production

Destruction of forests and the considerable burning of fossil fuels is directly causing the level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases including methane, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere to rise. Population growth in the US and the world indirectly contributes to this global warming. This has led the majority of scientists interested in weather and climate to predict that the planet's temperature will increase from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. These forecasted climactic changes will most likely strongly affect crop production. Specifically these scientists expect the potential changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, and pests to decrease food production in North America. The degree of changes hinges on each crop and its environmental needs. If farmers begin using improved agricultural technology, the fall in crop yields can be somewhat counterbalanced. Even without global warming, however, agriculture in North America must embrace sensible ecological resource management practices such as conserving soil, water, energy, and biological resources. These sustainable agricultural practices would serve agriculture, farmers, the environment, and society. Agriculturalists, farmers, and society are already interested in sustainable agriculture. Still scientists must conduct more research on the multiple effects of potential global climate change on many different crops under various environmental conditions and on new technologies that farmers might use in agricultural production. We must cut down our consumption of fossil fuel, reduce deforestation, erase poverty, and protect our soil, water, and biological resources. The most important action we need to take, however, is to check population growth.     

Results of TV imaging of Phobos (Experiment VSK-Fregat)

From February to March 1989 the Phobos 2 spacecraft took 37 TV images of Phobos at a distance of 190-1100 km. These images complement Mariner-9 and Viking data by providing higher-resolution coverage of a large region West of the crater Stickney (40-160 degrees W) and by providing disk-resolved measurements of surface brightness at a greater range of wavelengths and additional phase angles. These images have supported updated mapping and characterization of large craters and grooves, and have provided additional observations of craters' and grooves' bright rims. Variations in surface visible/near-infrared color ratio of almost a factor of 2 have been recognized; these variations appear to be associated with the ejecta of specific large impact craters. Updated determinations of satellite mass and volume allow calculation of a more accurate value of bulk density, 1.90 +/- 0.1 g cm-3. This is significantly lower than the density of meteoritic analogs to Phobos' surface, suggesting a porous interior perhaps containing interstitial ice.     

Improved reliability in the interpretation of geochemical measurements by the quantification of uncertainty from sampling

All geochemical measurements require the taking of field samples, but the uncertainty that this process causes is often ignored when assessing the reliability of the interpretation, of the geochemistry or the health implications. Recently devised methods for the estimation, optimisation and reduction of this uncertainty have been evaluated by their application to the investigation of contaminated land. Uncertainty of measurement caused by primary sampling has been estimated for a range of six different contaminated land site investigations, using an increasingly recognized procedure. These site investigations were selected to reflect a wide range of different sizes, contaminants （organic and metals）, previous land uses （e.g. tin mining, railway sidings and gas works）, intended future use （housing to nature reserves） and routinely applied sampling methods. The results showed that the uncertainty on measurements was substantial, ranging from 25% to 186% of the concentration values at the different sites. Sampling was identified as the dominant source of the uncertainty （〉70% of measurement uncertainty） in most cases. The fitness-for-purpose of the measurements was judged using the optimized contaminated land investigation （OCLI） method. This identifies the optimal level of uncertainty that reduces to overall financial loss caused by the measurement procedures and the misclassification of the contamination, caused by the uncertainty. Generally the uncertainty of the actual measurements made in these different site investigations was found to be sub-optimal, and too large by a factor of approximately two. The uncertainty is usually limited by the sampling, but this can be reduced by increasing the sample mass by a factor of 4 （predicted by sampling theory）. It is concluded that knowing the value of the uncertainty enables the interpretation to be made more reliable, and that sampling is the main factor limiting most investigations. This new approach quantifies this problem for the first time, and allows sampling procedures to be critically evaluated, and modified, to improve the reliability of the geochemical assessment.     

Hydrogeochemical controls on surface and groundwater chemistry in naturally acidic, porphyry-related mineralized areas, southern Rocky Mountains

In southern Rocky Mountains, catchments characterized by acidic, metalliferous waters that are relatively unaffected by human activity usually occur within areas that have active or historical mining activity. The US Geological Survey has utilized these mineralized but unmined catchments to constrain geochemical processes that control the surface- and ground-water chemistry associated with near surface acid weathering as well as to estimate premining conditions. Study areas include the upper Animas River watershed, Lake City, Mt. Emmons, and Montezuma in Colorado and Questa in New Mexico. Although host-rock lithologies range from Precambrian gneisses to Cretaceous sedimentary units to Tertiary volcanic complexes, mineralization is Tertiary in age and associated with intermediate to felsic composition, porphyritic plutons. Pyrite is ubiquitous. Variability of metal concentrations in water is caused by two main factors： mineralogy and hydrology. Parameters that potentially affect water chemistry include： host-rock lithology, intensity of hydrothermal alteration, sulfide mineralogy and chemistry, gangue mineralogy, length of flow path, precipitation, evaporation, and redox conditions. Springs and headwater streams have pH values as low as 2.5, sulfate up to 3700 mg/L and high dissolved metal concentrations （for example： Al up to 170 mg/L; Fe up to 250 mg/L; Cu up to 3.5 mg/L and Zn up to 14 mg/L）. With the exception of evaporative waters, the lowest pH values and highest Fe and Al concentrations occur in water draining the most intense hydrothermally altered areas consisting of the mineral assemblage quartz-sericite-pyrite. Stream beds tend to be coated with iron floc, and some reaches are underlain by ferricrete. When iron-rich ground water interacts with oxygenated waters in the stream or hyporheic zone, ferrous iron is oxidized to ferric iron, which is less soluble, leading to the precipitation of iron oxyhydroxides.     

法国诺曼底地震分布的点模式分析

提出了分析稀疏震中分布的一种新的数学方法。此方法主要是用于评价地震震中分布的线性特征是否显著，从而进一步识别地震断层。将该方法用于合成数据集和旧金山湾地震数据的试验表明，其识别能力还是较好的。如果把该方法应用于实际数据，必须结合地质信息，以此消除人为影响。本文应用该方法分析了西诺曼底地区的震中分布，并由稀疏震中追踪主要的构造方向。     

可以调和证据矛盾的新地幔对流模型

最近,提出了一种新的地幔对流模型,它与过去的标准模型相比要更接近实际一些。当然该模型还存在一些有争议的问题,不过我们认为,该模型可以调和不同研究领域矛盾的证据,因而为进一步研究对流提供一种新的构架。借助于我们最近的一些研究工作(Albarede,1998)以及其他人的一些研究工作,我们对由Kellogg等(1999)、van der Hilst和Karason(1999)提出的模型作了更深入的研究。新的观点认为,一个深地层大致位于地幔中较低的第三层,该地层的化学成分明显地与其上覆的地层不同。这样的一个深地层将决定地球放热元素的实际部分,并有助于达到一些临界同位素体系的热平衡。化学变化和热密度变化间微妙的平衡产生了明显的动态地形,这一过程使得地震波监测复杂化,但却有利于沉降板块的穿过。热柱将形成于对流地幔的地层边界与上覆部分的过渡带中。若割裂气体消失、气体不完全消失或气体逸出的地层与从地震学角度已被证实的、被660km间断面分开的上下地幔之间的关系,要协调其他矛盾的证据看来还要颇费一番功夫。     

使用稀疏宽带台网进行区域及远区域地震定位和震源参数估计：对里奇克雷斯特地震序列的检验

对1995年加利福尼亚里奇克雷斯特地震序列，使用伯克利数字地震台网（BDSN）的宽带，大动态范围仪器记录的数据进行了地震定位和震源参数估计。本文的目的是研究稀疏宽带合网对网外区域的监测能力，它也适合于全面禁止核试验条约（CTBT）监测小震级地震事件的情况，另外，我们还介绍一个震例研究，这是其他区域宽带台网检测能力的代表。为了评估稀疏台网的检测能力，我们把根据BDSN震相测量所估计的地震位置与“直实位置”目录中由南加州地震台网（SCSN）记录数据得出的高质量地震位置做了比较。为了确定不同类型数据对绝对事件定位的重要性，使用了一个自适应网络搜索定位程度，它利用了一个或多个台站的多震相拾取的时间和方位角。我们使用了BDSN台站距离范围在250－500km和500-800km内的稀疏子台网，结果表明：在区域距离范围内，可能得到达到18km以内的绝对事件定位，这是CTBT所要求的，然而，在远区域距离范围内，较低的保噪水平不可能使事件的定位达到CTBT所要求的目标。     

SHRIMP Age and Geochemistry of the Bikou Volcanic Terrane: Implications for Neoproterozoic Tectonics on the Northern Margin of the Yangtze Craton

The Bikou volcanic terrane is predominated by subalkaline tholeiitic lavas. Rock samples display lower initial ratios of Sr and Nd, 0.701248-0.704413 and 0.511080-0.512341 respectively. 207Pb and 208Pb are significantly enriched in the lavas. Most samples have positive εNd, which indicates that the magma was derived from EM-type mantle source, while a few samples with negative εNd indicate that there was contamination in the magma evolution. Magma differentiation is demonstrated by variations of LREE and LILE from depletion to enrichment. Additionally, normalized REE patterns and trace elements showed that lavas from the Bikou volcanic terrane have similar characteristics to those of basalts in arc settings caused by subduction and collision. Analyses showed that the Bikou volcanic terrane is a volcanic arc. New evidence proved that the Hengdan Group, north of the Bikou arc, is a turbidite terrane filling a forearc basin. Consequently, the Bikou volcanic terrane and the Hengdan turbidite terrane const     

地震学中的统计学原理（二）

3.4 模型检验模型检验即检查选用模型的特征与实际样本特征是否一致。选择模型与检验模型采用不相交的数据集较为理想。在做不到这一点的地方,检验需要考虑到模型已被调整到尽可能与数据密切拟合的事实,至少在某种意义上如此。