1990s长江流域降水趋势分析

依据国家气象局提供的实测月降水和日降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验法验证了降水趋势,并通过空间插补法,由点扩展到面,分析了1990s长江流域降水变化特征,发现1990s长江流域降水变化以降水在时间和空间分布上的集中度的增加为主要特点:时间上,年降水的增加趋势以冬季1月和夏季6月降水的集中增加为主;一日降水量大于等于50mm的暴雨日数和暴雨量在1990s也有了较明显的增加.空间上,年降水、夏季降水、冬季降水的增加都以中下游区的增加为主,尤其以鄱阳湖水系、洞庭湖水系的降水增加为主.1990s长江流域春季和秋季降水的减少以5月和9月两个汛期月份的降水减少为主,除金沙江水系和洞庭湖水系等少数地区外,流域大部分地区降水呈减少趋势.上述1990s出现的降水趋势明显与近年来全球变暖背景下长江流域各地区不同的温度及水循环变异有关.     

长江流域降水变化及其趋势演变

本文对中国长江流域降水趋势进行了分析.指出对月降水量而言,20世纪后50年不同区域出现1不胃的降水趋势变化特征.趋势插补法研究表明中国降水时空分布趋势十分明显.对长江流域长期降水资料分析研究指出夏季月份降水时间更集中,而对年降水而言在一些站则表现出明显的周期变化.     

基于GIS/RS的洪湖东分洪区洪水风险制图

本文计算了洪湖东分洪区洪灾损失.洪水风险带以模拟的洪水淹没深度表示.这是洪水风险综合评价模型的基础.本项研究基于GIS为基础的水动力模型计算洪水淹没深度;并以GIS/RS为基础建立了单位洪水风险评价模型,计算不同洪水风险带的直接损失.研究表明,综合洪水风险评价模型在长江流域应用是可行的.     

Structural features of Panarea volcano in the frame of the Aeolian Arc (Italy): Implications for the 2002–2003 unrest

Panarea, characterized by gas unrest in 2002–2003, is the volcanic island with the least constrained structure in the eastern-central Aeolian Arc (Italy). Based on structural measurements, we define here its deformation pattern relative to the Arc. The main deformations are subvertical extension fractures (63% of data), normal faults (25%) and dikes (12%). The mean orientation of the extension fractures and faults is N38°E, with a mean opening direction of N135° ± 8°, implying extension with a moderate component of dextral shear. These data, matched with those available for Stromboli volcano (pure opening) and Vulcano, Lipari and Salina volcanoes (predominant dextral motions) along the eastern-central Arc, suggest a progressive westward rotation of the extension direction and an increase in the dextral shear. The dextral shear turns into compression in the western arc. The recent unrest at Panarea, coeval to that of nearby Stromboli, may also be explained by the structural context, as both volcanoes lie along the portion of the Arc subject to extension.     

Sediment transport at the network scale and its link to channel morphology in the braided Vjosa River system

In this article we apply the CASCADE network-scale sediment connectivity model to the Vjosa River in Albania. The Vjosa is one of the last unimpaired braided rivers in Europe and, at the same time, a data scarce environment, which limits our ability to model how this pristine river might respond to future human disturbance. To initialize the model, we use remotely sensed data and modeled hydrology from a regional model. We perform a reach-by-reach optimization of surface grain size distribution (GSD) and bedload transport capacity to ensure equilibrium conditions throughout the network. In order to account for the various sources of uncertainty in the calculation of transport capacity, we performed a global sensitivity analysis. The modeled GSD distributions generated by the sensitivity analysis generally match the six GSDs measured at different locations within the network. The modeled bedload sediment fluxes increase systematically downstream, and annual fluxes at the outlet of the Vjosa are well within an order of magnitude of fluxes derived from previous estimates of the annual suspended sediment load. We then use the modeled sediment fluxes as input to a set of theoretically derived functions that successfully discriminate between multi-thread and single-thread channel patterns. This finding provides additional validation of the model results by showing a clear connection between modeled sediment concentrations and observed river morphology. Finally, we observe that a reduction in sediment flux of about 50% (e.g., due to dams) would likely cause existing braided reaches to shift toward single thread morphology. The proposed method is widely applicable and opens a new avenue for application of network-scale sediment models that aid in the exploration of river stability to changes in water and sediment fluxes.     

Ar / Ar dating of high-pressure rocks from the Ligurian Alps: Evidence for a continuous subduction–exhumation cycle

We present ³⁹Ar–⁴⁰Ar dating of phengite, muscovite and paragonite from a set of mafic and metasedimentary rocks sampled from the high-pressure (HP) metaophiolites of the Voltri Group (Western Alps) and from clasts in the basal layer conglomerates from the Tertiary molasse which overlie the high-pressure basement. The white mica-bearing rocks display peak eclogitic and blueschist-facies parageneses, locally showing complex greenschist-facies replacement textures. The internal discordance of age spectra is proportional to the chemical complexity of the micas. High-Si phengites from eclogite clasts record a ³⁹Ar–⁴⁰Ar age of ca. 49 Ma for the eclogite stage and ca. 43 Ma for the blueschist retrogression; phengites from a blueschist basement sample yield an age of ca. 40 Ma; low-Si muscovite from a metasediment dates the formation of the greenschist paragenesis at ca. 33 Ma. Our data indicate that the analyzed samples reached high-pressure conditions at different times over a time-span of c.a. 10 Ma. Subduction was continuing during exhumation and blueschist retrograde re-equilibration of higher-pressure, eclogite-facies rocks. This process kept the isotherms depressed, allowing the older HP-rocks to escape thermal re-equilibration. Our results, added to literature data, fit a tectonic model of a subduction–exhumation cycle, with different tectonic slices subducted at different times from Early Eocene until the Eocene–Oligocene boundary.     

Nonlinear Dynamic Response of HDRB and Hybrid HDRB-Friction Sliders Base Isolation Systems

The isolation systems are usually made of rubber bearings that are sometimes coupled in hybrid combination with frictional devices; this is the case of an in-site experimental campaign, performed on a base isolated apartment building in Rapolla (south of Italy). Several dropout tests at initial displacements up to 17cm allowed to obtain in-site information on the true dynamic response of the isolation system (building and isolators). The tests carried out allow a comparison between the free vibration responses of a building, isolated by using a 28 HDRB isolation system only, or an HDRB-Friction Sliders Hybrid one. The paper highlights the main differences of the response in the superstructure (the structure over the isolation system) obtained by using only HDRB isolation system, or the Hybrid one (HDRB and Friction Sliders in parallel system). Analysis and comparisons of experimental data, show the influence of nonlinearities on structural higher modes amplification, especially observed by using the higher nonlinear Hybrid isolation system. Tests results confirm that, in the case of a regular superstructure, like the Rapolla building, the isolation system nonlinearities influence the structural response.     

Survivorship of coral juveniles in a fish farm environment

Intensive fish farming is an emerging coastal activity that can potentially enhance sedimentation and promote eutrophication in fringing coral reefs. Here, we investigate the effect of fish farm effluent on the juvenile survivorship of the reef-building coral Seriatopora caliendrum. One-month old juvenile corals (on terracotta tiles) were deployed in fish farm and reference (reef) sites in Bolinao, the Philippines at a depth of 2m. After forty days, no survivor was recovered in the fish farm, while survivorship was low (11%) in the reference site, with the survivors' growth rate at 3.3polypsmo(-1) or 1.3mm(2)mo(-1). The fish farm deployed tiles were covered with muddy sediment and were colonized by barnacles, whereas those in the reference site were overgrown by a short stand of filamentous macroalgae. Environmental monitoring revealed higher nutrient levels (ammonia and phosphate), sedimentation rate, and organic matter flux, as well as diminished water transparency and dissolved oxygen levels in the fish farm compared to the reference site. Hence, intensive fish farming offers a suite of physical, chemical and biological modifications of the coastal marine environment which have a detrimental effect on the survivorship of coral juveniles.     

Prediction of river water temperature: a comparison between a new family of hybrid models and statistical approaches

River water temperature is a key physical variable controlling several chemical, biological and ecological processes. Its reliable prediction is a main issue in many environmental applications, which however is hampered by data scarcity, when using data‐demanding deterministic models, and modelling limitations, when using simpler statistical models. In this work we test a suite of models belonging to air2stream family, which are characterized by a hybrid formulation that combines a physical derivation of the key equation with a stochastic calibration of parameters. The air2stream models rely solely on air temperature and streamflow, and are of similar complexity as standard statistical models. The performances of the different versions of air2stream in predicting river water temperature are compared with those of the most common statistical models typically used in the literature. To this aim, a dataset of 38 Swiss rivers is used, which includes rivers classified into four different categories according to their hydrological characteristics: low‐land natural rivers, lake outlets, snow‐fed rivers and regulated rivers. The results of the analysis provide practical indications regarding the type of model that is most suitable to simulate river water temperature across different time scales (from daily to seasonal) and for different hydrological regimes. A model intercomparison exercise suggests that the family of air2stream hybrid models generally outperforms statistical models, while cross‐validation conducted over a 30‐year period indicates that they can be suitably adopted for long‐term analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigation of Small‐Scale Preferential Flow with a Forced‐Gradient Tracer Test

A new tracer experiment (referred to as MADE‐5) was conducted at the well‐known Macrodispersion Experiment (MADE) site to investigate the influence of small‐scale mass‐transfer and dispersion processes on well‐to‐well transport. The test was performed under dipole forced‐gradient flow conditions and concentrations were monitored in an extraction well and in two multilevel sampler (MLS) wells located at 6, 1.5, and 3.75 m from the source, respectively. The shape of the breakthrough curve (BTC) measured at the extraction well is strongly asymmetric showing a rapidly arriving peak and an extensive late‐time tail. The BTCs measured at seven different depths in the two MLSs are radically different from one another in terms of shape, arrival times, and magnitude of the concentration peaks. All of these characteristics indicate the presence of a complex network of preferential flow pathways controlling solute transport at the test site. Field‐experimental data were also used to evaluate two transport models: a stochastic advection‐dispersion model (ADM) based on conditional multivariate Gaussian realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field and a dual‐domain single‐rate (DDSR) mass‐transfer model based on a deterministic reconstruction of the aquifer heterogeneity. Unlike the stochastic ADM realizations, the DDSR accurately predicted the magnitude of the concentration peak and its arrival time (within a 1.5% error). For the multilevel BTCs between the injection and extraction wells, neither model reproduced the observed values, indicating that a high‐resolution characterization of the aquifer heterogeneity at the subdecimeter scale would be needed to fully capture 3D transport details.