盆地模拟技术中的化学动力学生烃模型与应用

油气地表化探数据的失真(特别是数据中的高值失真点)直接影响到化探异常圈定。本文根据油气地表化探数据的分布特点，利用概率统计原理，提出一种适合油气化探资料前期处理的失真数据的概率判定方法和处理手段，在对实际资料的应用中，取得了良好的效果。     

Observation and study on the whole process of cloud-to-ground lightning using narrowband radio interferometer

A narrowband radio interferometer has been developed and used to locate the entire sources of VHF radiations from a negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharge which contains 19 strokes. This system uses five antennas to form an array consisting of short- and long-baselines along two or- thogonal directions. The system error which comes from frequency conversion is reduced by phase detection through direct high frequency amplifying. An interactive graphic analysis procedure is used to remove the fringe ambiguities which exist inherently in interferometry and to determine the direction of lightning radiation sources in two dimensions (azimuth and elevation) as a function of time at a time resolution of microsecond orders. With the developed system, the whole progression process in time and space of a lightning flash can be reconstructed. In this paper, combining the synchronous data of electric filed change and VHF radiation, the whole processes of an example negative CG flash have been studied in detail. It is found that the preliminary breakdown event of the CG flash started from negative charge region and exhibited firstly a downward pregression and then an upward propagation. There were very intense and continuous radiations during stepped leaders which became much stronger when the first return stroke began. In contrast, there were less and only discrete radiations during dart leaders. Stepped leader and dart leader may transform to each other depending on the state of the ionization of the path. The progression speed of initial stepped leaders was about 105 ms?1, while that was about 4.1×106 and 6.0×106 ms?1 for dart leaders and dart-stepped leaders, respectively. M events produced hook-shaped field changes accompanied by active burst of radiations at their begin- nings. Followed these active radiation processes, M events appeared to contact finally into conducting main discharge channels. The mean progression speed of M events was about 7×107 ms?1, greater than that of the dart leaders and dart-step leaders. K events and attempted leaders were essentially the same as dart leaders except that they could not reach the ground and initiate return strokes.     

菏泽5.9级地震前后水准测量与承压水变化关系的研究

利用深层承压水头观测结果,对东明——菏泽长水准测线8——9号测段的高差变化进行了回归计算和相关分析。认为菏泽市城区9号测点下沉的主要原因是受深层承压水头变化的影响。排除地下水影响因素后证实,1983年11月7日菏泽5.9级地震前后仅3mm左右的升降变化,表明9号测点对这次中强地震仅能反映微弱的形变信息量。     

海南岛“0810”特大暴雨物理量诊断及多普勒特征分析

应用常规观测、海口多普勒回波及NCEP1×1°再分析等资料,对2008年10月12～15日海南特大暴雨成因进行诊断分析,并揭示了暴雨过程中的多普勒回波特征。结果表明：导致海南岛产生强降水的主要原因是热带低压移动缓慢和弱冷空气的低层入侵;当冷暖空气交绥,大气温湿结构发生突变,θse面陡立造成对流系统斜压发展,激发位势不稳定能量释放。正差动假相当位温平流意味着低层暖湿空气的平流大于高层,加强了层结对流不稳定发展;在斜压扰动作用下,对流层中层正差动涡度平流和低压东侧的暖平流破坏了海南岛的准地转平衡,动力强迫和热力强迫共同作用激发了次级环流,导致暴雨区上空的垂直运动的发展,促使暴雨增强。充沛的水汽输送及水汽的强烈辐合,为暴雨发生的有利水汽条件。多普勒径向速度揭示了暴雨区低层冷平流高层暖平流、风向风速的垂直切变大的垂直结构以及持续性的强烈辐合等等特征,回波停滞和＂列车效应＂使降水增幅,降水回波的性质差异,可造成强降水区域分布的不同。     

Black band disease as a possible factor of the coral decline at the northern reef-flat of Yongxing Island,South China Sea

Black band disease(BBD),characterized by the Cyanobacterial dominated pathogenic consortium,is thought to play a key role in the global decline of the coral reef ecosystems.The present paper originally documents a case of BBD from Yongxing Island(Xisha Islands,South China Sea),and further probes the reasons of this abnormal phenomenon.Prior to 2007,corals at northern reef-flat of Yongxing Isand were in healthy growth.Catastrophic coral mortality occurred between 2007 and 2008.The 16S rRNA gene sequencing and PCR amplification,with universally conserved primers,were applied to detect the contagious bacterial community of the microbial mat.The results demonstrated that six bacterial divisions constituted the clone libraries derived from the BBD mat,and that Cyanobacteria are the most diversely represented group that inhabit BBD bacterial mats,despite the fact that species in five others divisions(α-Proteobacteria,γ-Proteobacteria,Bacteroidetes,Verrucomicrobia and Actinobacteria) are also consistently diverse within the BBD mats of diseased coral.Other factors such as coral bleaching,typhoons,ocean acidification and crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks,are not primarily responsible for the coral mortality within such a short time interval.The disaster expansion of BBD associated with Cyanobacterial blooms is a more likely mechanism impacting these coral reefs.Excessive human activity enhances the eutrophication of the marine water of the reefal region and may result in occurrence of the BBD.     

A model test system with a dynamic load device for geotechnical engineering in cold regions

A model test system with a dynamic load device for geotechnical engineering in cold regions is presented. This system consists of a model test tank, a refrigeration device and temperature controller, a dynamic load device, together with sensors and data loggers for detecting stress, deformation, and temperature changes. The system can accommodate soil blocks up to 3 m in length, 2.5 m in width, and 1 m in height. The lowest temperature provided by the refrigeration device is -20 °C. The maximum load provided by the dynamic load device is 100 kN and the vibration frequency of the dynamic load can range from 0.1 to 10 Hz. A number of waveforms, such as sine waves, rectangular waves, triangle waves, and other user-defined waves can be generated by the dynamic load device controller.     

2010年1月24日山西河津-万荣MS4.8地震的震源机制解与发震构造探讨

2010年1月24日,山西省运城市河津-万荣交界地区发生Ms4.8地震.由于本次地震强度较低,并未形成地表破裂带,分析其发震构造具有一定的困难.地震现场工作队只能根据浅层人工地震剖面、附近钻孔资料、烈度等震线长轴和震中区附近活动断裂等来推定,认为西辛封隐伏断裂为可能的发震断裂.为此,下面我们将在分析本次地震的震源机制解、序列三维空间分布特征的基础上,结合本次地震的宏观考察结果,确定其发震构造并探讨发震机理.     

一次台风大暴雨成因及落区分析

对2007年9月19日到20日一次台风暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,利用模式输出资料具体分析了本次台风登陆减弱后的低压结构特征和大暴雨落区。结果表明:流场上高空辐散低空辐合特征明显,台风右侧来自海洋的低空潮湿偏南气流向中纬度槽前和台风倒槽前部输送的大量水汽在鲁东南东部和山东半岛南部辐合,形成强降水区;台风中心风速较小,和东部海上强风速中心形成明显"风速偶",降水区主要发生在中、低层"风速偶"之间的强风速梯度中。由于下垫面分为海上和陆上两部分,台风低压物理量场结构存在东西不对称性质,上升运动更加强烈,降水强度更大。降水的增幅与高空东南急流及高空正涡度中心和负散度中心的明显脉动下传有关系。     

低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型

利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。     

黑鲷和青石斑鱼对气泡幕反应的比较

在室内水池中观察了黑鲷（Ｓｐａｒｕｓｍａｃｒｏｃｅｐｈａｌｕｓ）和青石斑鱼（Ｅｐｉｎｅｐｈｅｌｕｓａｗｏａｒａ）对孔径０．５ｍｍ、孔距５．０ｃｍ，空气压力０．２５ｋｇ／ｃｍ２固定气泡幕的反应。结果表明，气泡幕对两种海水鱼都有显著的阻拦作用，平均阻拦率分别为黑鲷７５．１％、青石斑鱼８２．４％。分析显示，气泡幕对两种鱼的阻拦率间无显著差异。在本实验中，该两种鱼对气泡幕均无明显的适应现象