Impact of justice and solidarity variables on the acceptability of managed realignment

Sea-level rise due to climate change will have significant effects on coastal areas and populations. Adaptation policies recommend the managed realignment of the most vulnerable assets and activities. Despite their medium- and long-term benefits, these policies face significant friction due to social acceptability in the communities where they are implemented.

This article investigates the hypothesis that respecting principles of justice in the implementation of managed realignment should increase its acceptability. We compare preferences of those people who are exposed to the risk of climate-change-induced flooding and those who are not, as regards funding managed retreat policies and defining compensation criteria for assets at risk. The main theories of social justice provide the four principles included in the analysis: efficiency, need, responsibility and priority assigned to property rights.

A choice experiment survey was conducted with 258 residents of coastal and hinterland communities in the south of France. Four attributes were selected to define the managed realignment policy: the dialogue arrangements, the implementation period, the policy implementation schedule and the cost. The results show support for a relatively fast launch of these policies (within 15 years) but in stages and through a process of dialogue with the population. People's perceptions of the funding criteria reveal a preference for national solidarity. Finally, national funding of managed retreat policies and compensation criteria based on market prices have a significant positive influence on the acceptability of managed realignment policies, whereas introducing responsibility-based compensation criteria tends to favour the status quo over the adaptation policy.

Policy relevance

Prioritization of the funding criteria reveals the preference for national solidarity. Preferences for the justice criteria underpinning compensation reveal a great diversity of values. Besides implantation modalities, preferences for managed realignment policies depend on which level they are implemented at, on the expropriation criteria (the emphasis given to property rights, i.e. market price), on the attachment (people perceived as worst off, i.e. the property is their main residence rather than a second home or they have lower levels of income) and on the degree of responsibility (related to the date of purchase, i.e. on the information given at the time on the risk).     

Cross-national patterns of governance mechanisms in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement

ABSTRACT

The continuous submission and scaling-up of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) constitutes a key feature of the Paris Agreement. In their NDCs, states propose governance mechanisms for implementation of climate action, in turn distinguishing appropriate roles for the state in climate governance. Clarity on Parties’ suggested roles for the state makes explicit assumptions on the premise of climate policy, in turn contributing to enhanced transparency in negotiations on the scaling-up of NDCs. This also speaks to ongoing debates on roles for the state in climate governance literature. This article identifies the governance mechanisms proposed by states in their NDCs and the roles for the state envisioned by those governance mechanisms, and also examines how cross-national patterns of roles for the state break or converge with conventional patterns of international politics. The analysis shows that states propose a plurality of roles, which to different extents may be complementary or conflictual. We conclude that income, region, and the Annexes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are important for understanding suggested roles for the state, but that there are nuances to be further explored. We argue that this paper has three key findings: i) a majority of states rely on market mechanisms to implement their NDCs while rules on implementation and assessment of market mechanisms are still an outstanding issue in the negotiations, meaning that resolving this issue will be essential; ii) the process for evaluating and assessing qualitative governance mechanisms needs to be specified; and iii) increased awareness of differing views on the state’s roles makes explicit different perspectives on what constitutes an ambitious and legitimate contribution to combating climate change.

Key policy insights

• A majority of states (> 75%) envision the state as regulator (creating and strengthening legislation), market facilitator (creating and maintaining market structures), or facilitator (creating more favourable material conditions for climate-friendly behaviour).

• Greater awareness of differing views on roles for the state can increase understanding of different perspectives on ambition and legitimacy of contributions, in turn facilitating trust in negotiations.

• A distinction between substantive and procedural qualitative governance mechanisms and their function and interaction would facilitate the stocktaking dialogues.

     

Funding low-carbon investments in the absence of a carbon tax

Introducing a carbon tax is difficult, partly because it suggests that current generations have to make sacrifices for the benefit of future generations. However, the climate change externality could be corrected without such a sacrifice. It is possible to set a carbon value, and use it to create ‘carbon certificates’ that can be accepted as part of commercial banks’ legal reserves. These certificates can be distributed to low-carbon projects, and be exchanged by investors against concessional loans, reducing capital costs for low-carbon projects. As the issuance of carbon certificates would increase the quantity of money, it will either lead to accelerated inflation or induce the Central Bank to raise interest rates. Low-carbon projects will thus have access to cheaper loans at the expense of either ‘regular’ investors (in case of higher interest rates) or of lenders and depositors (in case of accelerated inflation). Within this scheme, mitigation expenditures are compensated by a reduction in regular investments, so that immediate consumption is maintained. It uses future generation wealth to pay for a hedge against climate change. This framework is not as efficient as a carbon tax but is politically easier to implement and represents an interesting step in the trajectory towards a low-carbon economy.     

Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonization of a power market

How does financial performance risk affect investments in low-carbon electricity-generating technologies to achieve climate policy targets? A detailed risk simulation of price formation in the Great Britain wholesale power market is used to show that the increasing replacement of fossil facilities with wind, ceteris paribus, may cause a deterioration of the financial risk–return performance metrics for incremental investments. Low-carbon investments appear to be high risk, low return, and as such may require a progressively higher level of support over time than envisaged by the conventional degression trajectories. The increasing riskiness of the wholesale market will to some extent offset the benefits of lower capital costs and operational efficiencies if investors need to satisfy cautious debt coverage ratios alongside positive expected returns. This increased risk is additional to the well-known ‘merit order effect’ of low-carbon investments progressively depressing wholesale prices and hence their expected investment returns.

Policy relevance

Policy support for renewable technologies such as wind is usually based upon levelized costs and is expected to reduce over time as capital costs and operational efficiencies improve. However, levelized costs do not take full account of the risk aversion that investors may have in practice. Expected policy support reductions may be moderated to some extent by the increased financial performance risk that intermittent technologies bring to the power market. The annual risk-return profiles for incremental investments deteriorate for all technologies as wind replaces fossil fuels. This extra risk premium will need to be incorporated into evaluating policy incentives for new investments in a decarbonizing power market.     

Tracking Solar Active Region Outflow Plasma from Its Source to the Near-Earth Environment

Seeking to establish whether active-region upflow material contributes to the slow solar wind, we examine in detail the plasma upflows from Active Region (AR) 10978, which crossed the Sun’s disc in the interval 8 to 16 December 2007 during Carrington rotation (CR) 2064. In previous work, using data from the Hinode/EUV Imaging Spectrometer, upflow velocity evolution was extensively studied as the region crossed the disc, while a linear force-free-field magnetic extrapolation was used to confirm aspects of the velocity evolution and to establish the presence of quasi-separatrix layers at the upflow source areas. The plasma properties, temperature, density, and first ionisation potential bias [FIP-bias] were measured with the spectrometer during the disc passage of the active region. Global potential-field source-surface (PFSS) models showed that AR 10978 was completely covered by the closed field of a helmet streamer that is part of the streamer belt. Therefore it is not clear how any of the upflowing AR-associated plasma could reach the source surface at 2.5 R_⊙ and contribute to the slow solar wind. However, a detailed examination of solar-wind in-situ data obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft at the L₁ point shows that increases in O⁷⁺/O⁶⁺, C⁶⁺/C⁵⁺, and Fe/O – a FIP-bias proxy – are present before the heliospheric current-sheet crossing. These increases, along with an accompanying reduction in proton velocity and an increase in density are characteristic of both AR and slow-solar-wind plasma. Finally, we describe a two-step reconnection process by which some of the upflowing plasma from the AR might reach the heliosphere.     

On the scientific aims of the MISS seismic experiment

The paper deals with how the data on structure of the Martian near-surface layers and deep interiors can be obtained using the only broadband seismometer in the framework of the planned MISS (Mars Interior Structure by Seismology) experiment. For this purpose, both traditional and nontraditional seismic methods of interior sounding are used. These methods process meteorite impact data, seismic noise from meteorological effects, and the data from strong Martian lithoshere quakes.     

Topological Analysis of Emerging Bipole Clusters Producing Violent Solar Events

During the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24 tremendous activity occurred on the Sun with rapid and compact emergence of magnetic flux leading to bursts of flares (C to M and even X-class). We investigate the violent events occurring in the cluster of two active regions (ARs), NOAA numbers 11121 and 11123, observed in November 2010 with instruments onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory and from Earth. Within one day the total magnetic flux increased by 70 % with the emergence of new groups of bipoles in AR 11123. From all the events on 11 November, we study, in particular, the ones starting at around 07:16 UT in GOES soft X-ray data and the brightenings preceding them. A magnetic-field topological analysis indicates the presence of null points, associated separatrices, and quasi-separatrix layers (QSLs) where magnetic reconnection is prone to occur. The presence of null points is confirmed by a linear and a non-linear force-free magnetic-field model. Their locations and general characteristics are similar in both modelling approaches, which supports their robustness. However, in order to explain the full extension of the analysed event brightenings, which are not restricted to the photospheric traces of the null separatrices, we compute the locations of QSLs. Based on this more complete topological analysis, we propose a scenario to explain the origin of a low-energy event preceding a filament eruption, which is accompanied by a two-ribbon flare, and a consecutive confined flare in AR 11123. The results of our topology computation can also explain the locations of flare ribbons in two other events, one preceding and one following the ones at 07:16 UT. Finally, this study provides further examples where flare-ribbon locations can be explained when compared to QSLs and only, partially, when using separatrices.     

Effects of Stratification and Flows on P 1/P 2 Ratios and Anti-node Shifts Within Closed Loop Structures

The solar atmosphere is a dynamic environment, constantly evolving to form a wide range of magnetically dominated structures (coronal loops, spicules, prominences, etc.) which cover a significant percentage of the surface at any one time. Oscillations and waves in many of these structures are now widely observed and have led to the new analytic technique of solar magneto-seismology, where inferences of the background conditions of the plasma can be deduced by studying magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) waves. Here, we generalise a novel magneto-seismological method designed to infer the density distribution of a bounded plasma structure from the relationship of its fundamental and subsequent harmonics. Observations of the solar atmosphere have emphatically shown that stratification, leading to complex density profiles within plasma structures, is common thereby rendering this work instantly accessible to solar physics. We show, in a dynamic waveguide, how the period ratio differs from the idealised harmonic ratios prevalent in homogeneous structures. These ratios show strong agreement with recent observational work. Next, anti-node shifts are also analysed. Using typical scaling parameters for bulk flows within atmospheric waveguides, e.g., coronal loops, it is found that significant anti-node shifts can be predicted, even to the order of 10 Mm. It would be highly encouraged to design specific observations to confirm the predicted anti-node shifts and apply the developed theory of solar magneto-seismology to gain more accurate waveguide diagnostics of the solar atmosphere.     

A Full-Sun Magnetic Index from Helioseismology Inferences

Solar magnetic indices are used to model the solar irradiance and ultimately to forecast it. However, the observation of such indices is generally limited to the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun. Seismic maps of the far side of the Sun have proven their capability to locate and track medium–large active regions at the non-visible hemisphere. We present here the possibility of using the average signal from these seismic far-side maps, combined with similarly calculated near-side maps, as a proxy to the full-Sun magnetic activity.