High‐temporal resolution fluvial sediment source fingerprinting with uncertainty: a Bayesian approach

This contribution addresses two developing areas of sediment fingerprinting research. Specifically, how to improve the temporal resolution of source apportionment estimates whilst minimizing analytical costs and, secondly, how to consistently quantify all perceived uncertainties associated with the sediment mixing model procedure. This first matter is tackled by using direct X‐ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRFS) and diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) analyses of suspended particulate matter (SPM) covered filter papers in conjunction with automatic water samplers. This method enables SPM geochemistry to be quickly, accurately, inexpensively and non‐destructively monitored at high‐temporal resolution throughout the progression of numerous precipitation events. We then employed a Bayesian mixing model procedure to provide full characterization of spatial geochemical variability, instrument precision and residual error to yield a realistic and coherent assessment of the uncertainties associated with source apportionment estimates. Applying these methods to SPM data from the River Wensum catchment, UK, we have been able to apportion, with uncertainty, sediment contributions from eroding arable topsoils, damaged road verges and combined subsurface channel bank and agricultural field drain sources at 60‐ and 120‐minute resolution for the duration of five precipitation events. The results presented here demonstrate how combining Bayesian mixing models with the direct spectroscopic analysis of SPM‐covered filter papers can produce high‐temporal resolution source apportionment estimates that can assist with the appropriate targeting of sediment pollution mitigation measures at a catchment level. © 2015 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

A gradient‐ratio method for the semi‐automatic interpretation of gravity map data sets

The application of semi‐automatic interpretation techniques to potential field data can be of significant assistance to a geophysicist. This paper generalizes the magnetic vertical contact model tilt‐depth method to gravity data using a vertical cylinder and buried sphere models. The method computes the ratio of the vertical to the total horizontal derivative of data and then identifies circular contours within it. Given the radius of the contour and the contour value itself, the depth to the source can be determined. The method is applied both to synthetic and gravity data from South Africa. The Matlab source code can be obtained from the author upon request.     

A comparison of annual and seasonal carbon dioxide effluxes between sub-Arctic Sweden and High-Arctic Svalbard

Recent climate change predictions suggest altered patterns of winter precipitation across the Arctic. It has been suggested that the presence, timing and quantity of snow all affect microbial activity, thus influencing CO₂ production in soil. In this study annual and seasonal emissions of CO₂ were estimated in High-Arctic Adventdalen, Svalbard, and sub-Arctic Latnjajaure, Sweden, using a new trace gas-based method to track real-time diffusion rates through the snow. Summer measurements from snow-free soils were made using a chamber-based method. Measurements were obtained from different snow regimes in order to evaluate the effect of snow depth on winter CO₂ effluxes. Total annual emissions of CO₂ from the sub-Arctic site (0.662–1.487 kg CO₂ m^–2 yr^–1) were found to be more than double the emissions from the High-Arctic site (0.369–0.591 kg CO₂ m^–2 yr^–1). There were no significant differences in winter effluxes between snow regimes or vegetation types, indicating that spatial variability in winter soil CO₂ effluxes are not directly linked to snow cover thickness or soil temperatures. Total winter emissions (0.004–0.248 kg CO₂ m^–2) were found to be in the lower range of those previously described in the literature. Winter emissions varied in their contribution to total annual production between 1 and 18%. Artificial snow drifts shortened the snow-free period by 2 weeks and decreased the annual CO₂ emission by up to 20%. This study suggests that future shifts in vegetation zones may increase soil respiration from Arctic tundra regions.     

Submarine Groundwater Discharge-Derived Nutrient Loads to San Francisco Bay: Implications to Future Ecosystem Changes

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) was quantified at select sites in San Francisco Bay (SFB) from radium (²²³Ra and ²²⁴Ra) and radon (²²²Rn) activities measured in groundwater and surface water using simple mass balance box models. Based on these models, discharge rates in South and Central Bays were 0.3?C7.4?m³?day^?1?m^?1. Although SGD fluxes at the two regions (Central and South Bays) of SFB were of the same order of magnitude, the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) species associated with SGD were different. In the South Bay, ammonium (NH ₄ ⁺ ) concentrations in groundwater were three-fold higher than in open bay waters, and NH ₄ ⁺ was the primary DIN form discharged by SGD. At the Central Bay site, the primary DIN form in groundwater and associated discharge was nitrate (NO ₃ ^? ). The stable isotope signatures (??¹⁵N_NO3 and ??¹⁸O_NO3) of NO ₃ ^? in the South Bay groundwater and surface waters were both consistent with NO ₃ ^? derived from NH ₄ ⁺ that was isotopically enriched in ¹⁵N by NH ₄ ⁺ volatilization. Based on the calculated SGD fluxes and groundwater nutrient concentrations, nutrient fluxes associated with SGD can account for up to 16?% of DIN and 22?% of DIP in South and Central Bays. The form of DIN contributed to surface waters from SGD may impact the ratio of NO ₃ ^? to NH ₄ ⁺ available to phytoplankton with implications to bay productivity, phytoplankton species distribution, and nutrient uptake rates. This assessment of nutrient delivery via groundwater discharge in SFB may provide vital information for future bay ecological wellbeing and sensitivity to future environmental stressors.     

Water‐worked gravel beds in laboratory flumes – a natural analogue?

An investigation has been conducted to identify the key parameters that are likely to scale laboratory sediment deposits to the field scale. Two types of bed formation were examined: one where sediment is manually placed and screeded and the second where sediment is fed into a running flume. This later technique created deposits through sequential cycles of sediment transport and deposition. Detailed bed surface topography measurements have been made over a screeded bed and three fed beds. In addition, bulk subsurface porosity and hydraulic conductivity have been measured. By comparing the four beds, results revealed that certain physical properties of the screeded bed were clearly different from those of the fed beds. The screeded bed had a random organization of grains on both the surface and within the subsurface. The fed beds exhibited greater surface and subsurface organization and complexity, and had a number of properties that closely resembled those found for water‐worked gravel beds. The surfaces were water‐worked and armoured and there was preferential particle orientation and direction of imbrication in the subsurface. This suggested that fed beds are able to simulate, in a simplified manner, both the surface and subsurface properties of established gravel‐bed river deposits. The near‐bed flow properties were also compared. It revealed that the use of a screeded bed will typically cause an underestimation in the degree of temporal variability in the flow. Furthermore, time‐averaged streamwise velocities were found to be randomly organized over the screeded bed but were organized into long streamwise flow structures over the fed beds. It clearly showed that caution should be taken when comparing velocity measurements over screeded beds with water‐worked beds, and that the formation of fed beds offers an improved way of investigating intragravel flow and sediment–water interface exchange processes in gravel‐bed rivers at a laboratory scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pure compound and sediment elutriate embryo larval assay of winter flounder from the Hudson/Raritan Estuary and Long Island Sound

Winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), a demersal egg layer, is at risk from dioxins and metals in the sediments of the Hudson/Raritan Estuary (the Estuary). The effects of tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), mercuric chloride and sediment elutriates on the embryos of winter flounder from four sites in the Estuary, and a reference site: Long Island Sound (LI) were examined. Embryos were exposed from 2 days after fertilization until 2 days post hatch. TCDD absorption by embryos/larvae ranged from 13 to 44%, with an average 23.4%. One experiment, with the LI population showed a LD₅₀ of 1.8 pg/larva (2.6 ng/g) and LD₁₀ of 0.9 pg/larva (1.4 ng/g). Major observed lesions included pericardial edema (PE), and spinal lesions (SL). Background lesion occurrence in controls was 0.31 lesions/individual, and 0.27 major lesions/individual. NOELs were observed for PE 0.3–0.5 pg/larva, and SL 1.4–9.0 pg/larva. PE and SL are good indicators of low and high dose effects of TCDD in winter flounder, respectively. With mercuric chloride all populations showed 50% mortality at 100 μg/l, and 50% lesions at 25–50 μg/l. Three of seven sediment elutriates collected from the Estuary were acutely toxic. Site-specific variability in sediment toxicity and breeding stock sensitivity to known contaminants was observed. Future studies should incorporate metamorphosis from larva to juvenile. (USEPA:CR825437, NIEHS:ES07148).     

Retrograde alteration of chromian kyanite in metachert and amphibolite whiteschist from the Southern Alps,New Zealand,with implications for uplift on the Alpine Fault

Chromian kyanites with a maximum content of 2.88 wt.% Cr₂O₃ occur in metachert and amphibolite from the Southern Alps, New Zealand. The presence of the whiteschist assemblage kyanite-talc, together with kyanite-zoisite assemblages in calc silicate bands imply high pressure metamorphism, with climactic conditions of approximately 10 kb at 650°–700° C. Mylonitization caused by a change to oblique-slip movements on the Alpine Fault is succeeded by retrograde alteration of kyanite-bearing assemblages. Kyanite is pseudomorphed by Cr-margarite-fuchsite-Cr-zoisite assemblages in metachert and by less chromian margarite and zoisite in amphibolite. Contemporaneously hornblende and phlogopite break down to chlorite. Subsequently the metachert pseudomorphs are mantled by muscovite and those in amphibolite by anorthite and chromite. The breakdown of margarite and zoisite to anorthite implies decompression under a low thermal gradient, compatible with almost isothermal uplift on the Alpine Fault. Late stage retrograde products include fibrous kyanite (probably forming by recrystallization of primary alluminosilicate) and scapolite (possibly orginating through interaction of Cl-bearing fluids in a geothermal system).In the Southern Alps there is a significant uplift following the Cretaceous Rangitata Orogeny, probably in the order of 11–15 km. However, the bulk of the uplift, approximately 25 km, took place in the past 10 m.y. during Kaikoura Orogenic uplift on the Alpine Fault. It is during this latest and continuing phase of uplift that the sequence of kyanite alteration reactions occurred.     

Incorporating uncertainty of future sea-level rise estimates into vulnerability assessment: A case study in Kahului, Maui

Accurate sea-level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are essential in developing effective management strategies for coastal systems at risk. In this study, we evaluate the effect of combining vertical uncertainties in Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) elevation data, datum transformation and future SLR estimates on estimating potential land area and land cover loss, and whether including uncertainty in future SLR estimates has implications for adaptation decisions in Kahului, Maui. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate probability distributions through our inundation model, and the output probability surfaces are generalized as areas of high and low probability of inundation. Our results show that considering uncertainty in just LiDAR and transformation overestimates vulnerable land area by about 3 % for the high probability threshold, resulting in conservative adaptation decisions, and underestimates vulnerable land area by about 14 % for the low probability threshold, resulting in less reliable adaptation decisions for Kahului. Not considering uncertainty in future SLR estimates in addition to LiDAR and transformation has variable effect on SLR adaptation decisions depending on the land cover category and how the high and low probability thresholds are defined. Monte Carlo simulation is a valuable approach to SLR vulnerability assessments because errors are not required to follow a Gaussian distribution.     

成熟勘探矿集区新一轮找矿：勘查战略创新及铜陵矿集区找矿实例

成熟勘探的矿集区非常有必要开展新一轮的找矿，但矿床模式的局限和大埋藏深度等困难制约了这些地区的预测性找矿发现。促进其预测性找矿发现的关键战略包括：勘查模型的创新、勘查技术的创新和各种信息的综合集成预测。勘查模型的创新必须包含基于地球动力学剖析的新成矿概念，动力学数值模拟是有效的创新手段之一；勘查技术创新的主要目的是加大探测深度和提高探测与解释的准确性，必须以详细可靠的地质资料为基础；综合信息集成是利用GIS和知识驱动及数据驱动的方法充分提取各种数据中的有用信息，集成为更加可靠的预测图。在这种思想的指导下，我们在铜陵凤凰山矿田进行了预测和勘查，并成功地发现了深部的隐伏矿床。