The response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon circulation to intensified irrigation in global climate model simulations

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson’s r = ?0.66 and r = ?0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = ?0.72 and r = ?0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by ~40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land–sea temperature gradients.     

Identifying hot spots of security vulnerability associated with climate change in Africa

Given its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its comparatively low adaptive capacity, Africa is frequently invoked as especially vulnerable to climate change. Within Africa, there is likely to be considerable variation in vulnerability to climate change both between and within countries. This paper seeks to advance the agenda of identifying the hot spots of what we term “climate security” vulnerability, areas where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. This article blends the expertise of social scientists and climate scientists. It builds on a model of composite vulnerability that incorporates four “baskets” or processes that are thought to contribute to vulnerability including: (1) physical exposure, (2) population density, (3) household and community resilience, and (4) governance and political violence. Whereas previous iterations of the model relied on historical physical exposure data of natural hazards, this paper uses results from regional model simulations of African climate in the late 20th century and mid-21st century to develop measures of extreme weather events—dry days, heat wave events, and heavy rainfall days—coupled with an indicator of low-lying coastal elevation. For the late 20th century, this mapping process reveals the most vulnerable areas are concentrated in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan, with pockets in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritania, and Sierra Leone. The mid 21st century projection shows more extensive vulnerability throughout the Sahel, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, northern Nigeria, Niger, and across Sudan.     

Saqqar: A 34 km diameter impact structure in Saudi Arabia

Here we present the first proof of an impact origin for the Saqqar circular structure in northwestern Saudi Arabia (Neville et al. 2014 ), with an apparent diameter of 34 km, centered at 29°35′N, 38°42′E. The structure is formed in Cambrian–Devonian siliciclastics and is unconformably overlain by undeformed Cretaceous and Paleogene sediments. The age of impact is not well constrained and lies somewhere between 410 and 70 Ma. The subsurface structure is constrained by 2‐D reflection seismic profiles and six drilled wells. First‐order structural features are a central uplift that rises approximately 2 km above regional datums, surrounded by a ring syncline. The crater rim is defined by circumferential normal faults. The central uplift and ring syncline correspond to a Bouguer gravity high and an annular ring‐like low, respectively. The wells were drilled within the central uplift, the deepest among them exceed 2 km depth. Sandstone core samples from these wells show abundant indicators of a shock metamorphic overprint. Planar deformation features (PDFs) were measured with orientations along (0001), {103}, and less frequently along {101} and {104}. Planar fractures (PFs) predominantly occur along (0001) and {101}, and are locally associated with feather features (FFs). In addition, some shocked feldspar grains and strongly deformed mica flakes were found. The recorded shock pressure ranges between 5 and 15 GPa. The preserved level of shock and the absence of an allochthonous crater fill suggest that Saqqar was eroded by 1–2 km between the Devonian and Maastrichtian. The documentation of unequivocal shock features proves the formation of the Saqqar structure by a hypervelocity impact event.     

Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E.

We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800–1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850–1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler ‘Little Ice Age’ conditions (ca. 1350–1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.     

Paleoecological investigation of recent lake acidification in the northern Great Lakes states

Paleoecological analyses of sediments from nine northern Great Lakes states (NGLS) lakes reveal small pH changes in seven of these lakes since 1860, four of these being declines. The largest diatom-inferred (DI) pH declines of 0.5 pH units were found in Brown L. and Denton L., Wisconsin. Two other lakes with suspected total alkalinity declines (based on an acidification model and on historical water chemistry, respectively), McNearney L., Michigan, and Camp 12 L., Wisconsin, have not acidified recently according to diatom-inference techniques. Many of the observed trends of increasing pH are coincident with logging; floristic composition of diatom assemblages also changed coincident with fisheries manipulations in some lakes, but these floristic trends did not affect DI pH. Sediment core profiles of Pb, S, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons provide a record of atmospheric deposition of fossil fuel combustion products beginning around the turn of the century; onset is later and accumulation rates are smaller than for other northeastern study regions of the Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification (PIRLA) Project. The response of diatom species to lakewater pH in the NGLS region is very strong and similar to response in other regions. Overall, there is little paleoecological evidence that acidic deposition has caused significant acidification of lakes in the NGLS region.This is the twelfth of a series of papers to be published by this journal which is a contribution of the Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification (PIRLA) project. Drs. D.F. Charles and D.R. Whitehead are guest editors for this series.     

Analysis of 27 satellite orbits to determine odd zonal harmonics in the geopotential

The odd zonal harmonics in the geopotential are the terms independent of longitude and antisymmetric about the Equator: they define the ‘pear-shape’ effect. The coeffecients J₃, J₅, J₇,…of these harmonics have been evaluated by analysing the variations in eccentricity of 27 orbits covering wide range of inclinations. We use again most of the orbits from our previous (1969) evaluations, but we now have the advantage of 3 accurate orbits at inclinations between 60° and 66°, where the variations in eccentricity become very large, and 3 near-equatorial orbits, at inclinations between 3° and 15°, whereas previously there were none at inclinations lower than 28°. The new data lead to much more accurate and reliable values for the coeffecients. Our recommended set, which terminates at J₁₇, is

$\text{10}{}^9\text{J}{}_3\text{= ?2531 ± 7}\text{10}{}^9\text{J}{}_{11}\text{= 159 ± 16}\text{J}{}_5\text{= ?246 ± 9}\text{J}{}_{13}\text{= ?131 ± 22}\text{J}{}_7\text{= ?326 ± 11}\text{J}{}_{15}\text{= ?26 ±24}\text{J}{}_9\text{= ?94 ± 12}\text{J}{}_{17}\text{= ?258 ± 19}$

. With this new set of values the pear-shape tendency of the Earth amounts to 44.7 m at the poles, instead of the previous 40 m, though the new geoid is within 1 m of the old at latitudes away from the poles.     

Infrasound Radiated During the Montana Earthquake of 1959 August 18

Summary Seismic waves caused by earthquakes radiate infrasound into the atmosphere as they proceed over the Earth's surface. Several instances of such sound waves radiated locally by seismic waves passing through the Washington, D.C., area have been observed at the infrasonic station there. A notable instance was the great Montana earthquake of 1959 August 18. Measurements of the radiated infrasound gave data on the seismic waves, including their travel times, local speeds, directions of travel, amplitudes, and waveforms.