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951.
We focus on the retrieval of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from an analysis of atmospheric UV backscatter spectra obtained by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) spectrometer on board the ESA European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-2). Here, the last major eruptions of Mt. Etna on Sicily (Italy) in July/August 2001 and October/November 2002 provided an excellent opportunity to study the retrieval of SO2 columnar amounts from ground-based, LIDAR and satellite measurements. Our study shows that the bulk of emitted SO2 was confined in the troposphere, mainly between 700 hPa and 400 hPa which is confirmed by trajectory analysis, by LIDAR observations and AVHRR observations. The area of influence of Mt. Etna eruptions ranges from the Western Saharan Desert to Greece and the near east states and even down to the basin of Tschad, Africa. Our analysis revealed that information about the plume height of volcanic eruptions and aerosol parameters is necessary for a reliable quantitative retrieval of SO2 from space-borne sensor data at periods perturbed by volcanic eruptions.  相似文献   
952.
Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: a review of the literature   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4  
Many of the decisions relating to future urban development require information on climate change risks to cities This review of the academic and “grey” literature provides an overview assessment of the state of the art in the quantification and valuation of climate risks at the city-scale. We find that whilst a small number of cities, mostly in OECD countries, have derived quantitative estimates of the costs of climate change risks under alternative scenarios, this form of analysis is in its infancy. The climate risks most frequently addressed in existing studies are associated with sea-level rise, health and water resources. Other sectors such as energy, transport, and built infrastructure remain less studied. The review has also undertaken a case study to examine the progress in two cities—London and New York—which are relatively advanced in the assessment of climate risks and adaptation. The case studies show that these cities have benefited from stakeholder engagement at an early stage in their risk assessments. They have also benefited from the development of specific institutional responsibilities for co-ordinating such research from the outset. This involvement has been critical in creating momentum and obtaining resources for subsequent in-depth analysis of sectoral impacts and adaptation needs..While low cost climate down-scaling applications would be useful in future research, the greatest priority is to develop responses that can work within the high future uncertainty of future climate change, to build resilience and maintain flexibility. This can best be used within the context of established risk management practices.  相似文献   
953.
The impact of cloud microphysical processes on the simulated intensity and track of Typhoon Rananim is discussed and analyzed in the second part of this study. The results indicate that when the cooling effect due to evaporation of rain water is excluded, the simulated 36-h maximum surface wind speed of Typhoon Rananim is about 7 m s−1 greater than that from all other experiments; however, the typhoon landfall location has the biggest bias of about 150 km against the control experiment. The simulated strong outer rainbands and the vertical shear of the environmental flow are unfavorable for the deepening and maintenance of the typhoon and result in its intensity loss near the landfall. It is the cloud microphysical processes that strengthen and create the outer spiral rainbands, which then increase the local convergence away from the typhoon center and prevent more moisture and energy transport to the inner core of the typhoon. The developed outer rainbands are supposed to bring dry and cold air mass from the middle troposphere to the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The other branch of the cold airflow comes from the evaporation of rain water itself in the PBL while the droplets are falling. Thus, the cut-off of the warm and moist air to the inner core and the invasion of cold and dry air to the eyewall region are expected to bring about the intensity reduction of the modeled typhoon. Therefore, the deepening and maintenance of Typhoon Rananim during its landing are better simulated through the reduction of these two kinds of model errors.  相似文献   
954.
    
In this paper, by using the sounding data collected in LOPEX05, we have analyzed the vertical atmospheric structure and boundary layer characteristics of temperature and humidity in the late summer over the east Gansu loess plateau. The results show that the bottom of the stratosphere is at about 16 500 m and varies between 14 000 m and 18 000 m above the ground. The center of the westerly jet is located between 8300 m and 14 300 m above the ground and its direction moves between 260° and 305°. There is an ...  相似文献   
955.
    
As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.  相似文献   
956.
    
An extensive meteorological observational dataset at Dome C, East Antarctic Plateau, enabled estimation of the sensitivity of surface momentum and sensible heat fluxes to aerodynamic roughness length and atmospheric stability in this region. Our study reveals that (1) because of the preferential orientation of snow micro-reliefs (sastrugi), the aerodynamic roughness length (z_{0}) varies by more than two orders of magnitude depending on the wind direction; consequently, estimating the turbulent fluxes with a realistic but constant (z_{0}) of 1 mm leads to a mean friction velocity bias of (24,%) in near-neutral conditions; (2) the dependence of the ratio of the roughness length for heat (z_{0t}) to (z_{0}) on the roughness Reynolds number is shown to be in reasonable agreement with previous models; (3) the wide range of atmospheric stability at Dome C makes the flux very sensitive to the choice of the stability functions; stability function models presumed to be suitable for stable conditions were evaluated and shown to generally underestimate the dimensionless vertical temperature gradient; as these models differ increasingly with increases in the stability parameter z / L, heat flux and friction velocity relative differences reached (100,%) when (z/L > 1); (4) the shallowness of the stable boundary layer is responsible for significant sensitivity to the height of the observed temperature and wind data used to estimate the fluxes. Consistent flux results were obtained with atmospheric measurements at heights up to 2 m. Our sensitivity study revealed the need to include a dynamical parametrization of roughness length over Antarctica in climate models and to develop new parametrizations of the surface fluxes in very stable conditions, accounting, for instance, for the divergence in both radiative and turbulent fluxes in the first few metres of the boundary layer.  相似文献   
957.
Evaporation from wet-canopy (\(E_\mathrm{C}\)) and stem (\(E_\mathrm{S}\)) surfaces during rainfall represents a significant portion of municipal-to-global scale hydrologic cycles. For urban ecosystems, \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and \(E_\mathrm{S}\) dynamics play valuable roles in stormwater management. Despite this, canopy-interception loss studies typically ignore crown-scale variability in \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and assume (with few indirect data) that \(E_\mathrm{S}\) is generally \({<}2\%\) of total wet-canopy evaporation. We test these common assumptions for the first time with a spatially-distributed network of in-canopy meteorological monitoring and 45 surface temperature sensors in an urban Pinus elliottii tree row to estimate \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and \(E_\mathrm{S}\) under the assumption that crown surfaces behave as “wet bulbs”. From December 2015 through July 2016, 33 saturated crown periods (195 h of 5-min observations) were isolated from storms for determination of 5-min evaporation rates ranging from negligible to 0.67 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\). Mean \(E_\mathrm{S}\) (0.10 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\)) was significantly lower (\(p < 0.01\)) than mean \(E_\mathrm{C}\) (0.16 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\)). But, \(E_\mathrm{S}\) values often equalled \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and, when scaled to trunk area using terrestrial lidar, accounted for 8–13% (inter-quartile range) of total wet-crown evaporation (\(E_\mathrm{S}+E_\mathrm{C}\) scaled to surface area). \(E_\mathrm{S}\) contributions to total wet-crown evaporation maximized at 33%, showing a general underestimate (by 2–17 times) of this quantity in the literature. Moreover, results suggest wet-crown evaporation from urban tree rows can be adequately estimated by simply assuming saturated tree surfaces behave as wet bulbs, avoiding problematic assumptions associated with other physically-based methods.  相似文献   
958.
    
The standard US diet contributes to greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) from both the food system, and from the health system through its contribution to non-communicable diseases. To estimate the potential for diet change to reduce GHGE and improve public health, we analyzed the effect of adopting healthier model diets in the USA on the risk of disease, health care costs, and GHGE. We found that adoption of healthier diets reduced the relative risk of coronary heart disease, colorectal cancer, and type 2 diabetes by 20–45%, US health care costs by US$B 77–93 per year, and direct GHGE by 222–826 kg CO2e capita?1 year?1 (69–84 kg from the health care system, 153–742 kg from the food system). Emission reductions were equivalent to 6–23% of the US Climate Action Plan’s target of a 17% reduction in 2005 GHGE by 2020, and 24–134% of California’s target of 1990 GHGE levels by 2020. However, there is potential for investment of health care savings to result in rebound up to and greater than 100%, which would increase net GHGE. Given the urgency of improving public health and of mitigating GHGE over the short term, the potential contribution of diet change, and the options for reducing rebound, deserve more research in support of policy.  相似文献   
959.
In climate and weather prediction models the near-surface turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum and related transfer coefficients are usually parametrized on the basis of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST). To avoid iteration, required for the numerical solution of the MOST equations, many models apply parametrizations of the transfer coefficients based on an approach relating these coefficients to the bulk Richardson number \(Ri_{b}\). However, the parametrizations that are presently used in most climate models are valid only for weaker stability and larger surface roughnesses than those documented during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean campaign (SHEBA). The latter delivered a well-accepted set of turbulence data in the stable surface layer over polar sea-ice. Using stability functions based on the SHEBA data, we solve the MOST equations applying a new semi-analytic approach that results in transfer coefficients as a function of \(Ri_{b}\) and roughness lengths for momentum and heat. It is shown that the new coefficients reproduce the coefficients obtained by the numerical iterative method with a good accuracy in the most relevant range of stability and roughness lengths. For small \(Ri_{b}\), the new bulk transfer coefficients are similar to the traditional coefficients, but for large \(Ri_{b}\) they are much smaller than currently used coefficients. Finally, a possible adjustment of the latter and the implementation of the new proposed parametrizations in models are discussed.  相似文献   
960.
We evaluate the accuracy of the speed-up provided in several wind-loading standards by comparison with wind-tunnel measurements and numerical predictions, which are carried out at a nominal scale of 1:500 and full-scale, respectively. Airflow over two- and three-dimensional bell-shaped hills is numerically modelled using the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes method with a pressure-driven atmospheric boundary layer and three different turbulence models. Investigated in detail are the effects of grid size on the speed-up and flow separation, as well as the resulting uncertainties in the numerical simulations. Good agreement is obtained between the numerical prediction of speed-up, as well as the wake region size and location, with that according to large-eddy simulations and the wind-tunnel results. The numerical results demonstrate the ability to predict the airflow over a hill with good accuracy with considerably less computational time than for large-eddy simulation. Numerical simulations for a three-dimensional hill show that the speed-up and the wake region decrease significantly when compared with the flow over two-dimensional hills due to the secondary flow around three-dimensional hills. Different hill slopes and shapes are simulated numerically to investigate the effect of hill profile on the speed-up. In comparison with more peaked hill crests, flat-topped hills have a lower speed-up at the crest up to heights of about half the hill height, for which none of the standards gives entirely satisfactory values of speed-up. Overall, the latest versions of the National Building Code of Canada and the Australian and New Zealand Standard give the best predictions of wind speed over isolated hills.  相似文献   
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