Analyse régionale des simulations climatiques du modèle canadien de circulation générale de l'atmosphère pour le territoire québécois

Abstract

Current understanding of the possible nature of climatic change at the regional scale is limited by the spatial resolution of General Circulation Models (GCM). The use of GCM outputs without correction linked to the spatial variability of the variables can bring significant errors in their utilization at the regional scale. The potential of the Canadian GCM for regional applications in Quebec has been analysed by comparison to the climatic normals of temperature and precipitation, measured over the Quebec climatological network, on an annual and seasonal basis. This analysis has been undertaken with the support of a geographical information system (GIS) (PAMAP). In summary, a difference between the climatic normal and the GCM output has been estimated at 20% for temperature and 30% for precipitation. We present an analysis of a corrected regionalized scenario for the province of Quebec of the possible climatic change simulated by the Canadian GCM under the hypothesis of a doubling of atmospheric CO₂. Results show an increase of the annual average temperature of 4° C for summer and 6°C for winter, associated with an average increase of 80 mm (10%) in annual precipitation, reaching 25% in some regions.     

Dendrohydroclimate reconstructions of July–August runoff for two nival‐regime rivers in west central British Columbia

Lengthy records of river discharge are necessary to comprehensively assess the long‐term connection between synoptic climate forcings and nival‐regime systems in British Columbia. A regional multispecies network of tree‐ring width and ring density chronologies was built for west central British Columbia with the intention of dendrohydrologically extending short runoff records in this area. Extended records of July–August mean discharge anomalies for the Skeena and Atnarko Rivers were reconstructed back to ad 1660. Low flow events represented during the late 1600s, early 1700s and late 1800s lie beyond those experienced during the recent instrumental period for these basins. The documentation of extreme events of this magnitude necessitates consideration when planning for future water resources in this region. Supplementary dendroclimatic reconstructions of the winter Pacific North American (PNA) pressure anomaly pattern and records of mean summer temperature and end‐of‐winter snow water equivalent were also constructed. These ancillary climate records provide insight into the long‐term climate drivers of annual discharge dynamics within these nival basins. Correlation and wavelet analyses confirm the persistent relationship of synoptic climate regimes described by the Southern Oscillation Index, NINO 3.4, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and PNA indices on runoff in west central British Columbia. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Symetries du Probleme desN Corps,Regularisation des Solutions Centrales Singulieres

The newtonian problem ofn mass points bodies is invariant by several changes of spatio-temporal variables. These symmetries correspond to arbitrary choices of the referential and they are related via Noether's theorem or by its generalization to conservative quantities of the motion. Forn=2 the author has defined two families of symmetriesS ₁ andS ₂ changing the eccentricity of a solution. The family of symmetries,S ₁, is associated to the arbitrary choice of thezero level of the potential and may related unbounded and bounded solutions. The family of symmetries,S ₂, is related to a possibleaffinity of the configurations space. Via a symmetry of theS ₂ family a zero angular momentum solution is equivalent to a non-zero angular momentum solution. Via a product of two symmetries of each family, denoted byS ₁.S ₂, any solution of the two-body problem is equivalent to a circular solution. In this paper it is shown that some of these transformations may be generalized to symmetries changing the quantityC ² H in then-body problem, whereC is the angular momentum andH is the energy. The extension is easily made to central solutions of then-body problem because involving several synchroneous two-body problems. We consider for exposition then=3 case. The principal results may be resumed by the following propositions:

1. The two families of symmetriesS ₁ andS ₂ are described by a spatial transformation product of an instantaneous homothethy and an instantaneous rotation completed by a change of temporal variable.
2. TheS ₁ family of symmetries may relate unbounded and bounded central solutions of the same type, i.e. unaligned or aligned.
3. TheS ₂ family of symmetries may regularize multiple collisions among central solutions of the same type.

Therefore any central solution, via a symmetryS ₁ orS ₂ orS ₁.S ₂, is equivalent to a central circular solution of the same type. That is a form of regularization.     

Potential for offsetting diamond mine carbon emissions through mineral carbonation of processed kimberlite: an assessment of De Beers mine sites in South Africa and Canada

De Beers kimberlite mine operations in South Africa (Venetia and Voorspoed) and Canada (Gahcho Kué, Victor, and Snap Lake) have the potential to sequester carbon dioxide (CO₂) through weathering of kimberlite mine tailings, which can store carbon in secondary carbonate minerals (mineral carbonation). Carbonation of ca. 4.7 to 24.0 wt% (average = 13.8 wt%) of annual processed kimberlite production could offset 100% of each mine site’s carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions. Minerals of particular interest for reactivity with atmospheric or waste CO₂ from energy production include serpentine minerals, olivine (forsterite), brucite, and smectite. The most abundant minerals, such as serpentine polymorphs, provide the bulk of the carbonation potential. However, the detection of minor amounts of highly reactive brucite in tailings from Victor, as well as the likely presence of brucite at Venetia, Gahcho Kué, and Snap Lake, is also important for the mineral carbonation potential of the mine sites.

     

Safeguarding coastal coral communities on the central Great Barrier Reef (Australia) against climate change: realizable local and global actions

The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic (global) climate change are widely known. Less well considered is the contributing role of conditions local to the reef, in particular reef water quality, in co-determining the physiological tolerance of corals to increasing sea temperatures and declining pH. Here, the modelled benefit of reduced exposure to dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in terrestrial runoff, which raises the thermal tolerance of coastal coral communities on the central Great Barrier Reef (Australia), is considered alongside alternative future warming scenarios. The simulations highlight that an 80% reduction in DIN ‘buys’ an additional ~50–60?years of reef-building capacity for No Mitigation (‘business-as-usual’) bleaching projections. Moreover, the integrated management benefits provided by: (i) local reductions of ~50% in DIN contained in river loads, and (ii) global stabilisation of atmospheric CO₂ below 450?ppm can help ensure the persistence of hard-coral-dominated reefscapes beyond 2100. The simulations reinforce the message that beyond the global imperative to mitigate future atmospheric CO₂ emissions there still remains the need for effective local management actions that enhance the resistance and resilience of coral reef communities to the impacts of climate change.     

Climate change,migration and adaptation in Funafuti,Tuvalu

This paper shows the extent to which people in Funafuti – the main island of Tuvalu – are intending to migrate in response to climate change. It presents evidence collected from Funafuti to challenge the widely held assumption that climate change is, will, or should result in large-scale migration from Tuvalu. It shows that for most people climate change is not a reason for concern, let alone a reason to migrate, and that would-be migrants do not cite climate change as a reason to leave. People in Funafuti wish to remain living in Funafuti for reasons of lifestyle, culture and identity. Concerns about the impacts of climate change are not currently a significant driver of migration from Funafuti, and do not appear to be a significant influence on those who intend to migrate in the future.     

Volcanic evolution of the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands) in the light of new K-Ar data

New age determinations from Tenerife, together with those previously published (93 in all), provide a fairly comprehensive picture of the volcanic evolution of the island. The oldest volcanic series, with ages starting in the late Miocene, are formed mainly by basalts with some trachytes and phonolites which appear in Anaga, Teno and Roque del Conde massifs. In Anaga (NE), three volcanic cycles occurred: one older than 6.5 Ma, a second one between 6.5 and 4.5 Ma, with a possible gap between 5.4 and 4.8 Ma, and a late cycle around 3.6 Ma. In Teno (NW), after some undated units, the activity took place between 6.7 and 4.5 Ma, with two main series separated by a possible pause between 6.2 and 5.6 Ma. In the zone of Roque del Conde (S), the ages are scattered between 11.6 and 3.5 Ma. Between 3.3 and 1.9 Ma, the whole island underwent a period of volcanic quiescence and erosion.The large Cañadas volcano, made up of basalts, trachytes and phonolites, was built essentially between 1.9 and 0.2 Ma. To the NE of this central volcano, linking it with Anaga, is a chain of basaltic emission centers, with a peak of activity around 0.8 Ma. The Cañadas Caldera had several collapse phases, associated with large ignimbrite emissions. There were, at least, an older phase more than 1 Ma old, on the western part of the volcano, and a younger one, less than 0.6 Ma old, in the eastern side. The two large “valleys” of Guimar and la Orotava were formed by large landslides less than 0.8 Ma ago, and probably before 0.6 Ma ago. The present Cañadas caldera was formed by another landslide, less than 0.2 Ma ago. This caldera was later filled by the huge Teide volcano, which has been active even in historic times. During the same period a series of small volcanoes erupted at scattered locations throughout the island.The average eruptive rate in Tenerife was 0.3 km³/ka, with relatively small variations for the different eruptive periods. This island and La Gomera represent a model of growth by discontinuous pulses of volcanic activity, separated by gaps often coinciding with episodes of destruction of the edifices and sometimes extended for several million years. The neighbouring Gran Canaria, on the other hand, had an initial, rapid “shield-building phase” during which more than 90% of the island was built, and a series of smaller pulses at a much later period.A comparison between these three central islands indicates that the previously postulated westward displacement in time of a gap in the volcanic activity is valid only as a first approximation. Several gaps are present on each island, overlapping in time and not clearly supporting either of the models proposed to explain the evolution of the Canaries.     

The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project

The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly.