Complexities in Hindcasting Models—When Should We Say Enough Is Enough?

Groundwater models are routinely used in hindcasting applications to predict the past concentration levels in contaminated aquifers. These predictions are used in risk assessment and epidemiological studies, which are often completed either for resolving a court case or for developing a public‐policy solution. Hindcast groundwater modeling studies utilize a variety of computer tools with complexity levels ranging from simple analytical models to detailed three‐dimensional, multiphase, multispecies, reactive transport models. The aim of this study is to explore the value of using complex reactive transport models in hindcasting studies that have limited historic data. I review a chlorinated solvent exposure problem that occurred at a U.S. Marine Corp Base in Camp Lejeune, North Carolina and use it as an example to discuss the limits of hindcasting modeling exercises. The lessons learned from the study are used to reflect upon the following questions related to model complexity: How should we decide how much is enough? Who should decide when enough is enough?     

Relevance of thermal environment to human health: a case study of Ondo State, Nigeria

The interconnection between weather and climate and the performance, well-being, and human health cannot be overemphasized. The relationship between them is of both local and global significance. Information about weather, climate, and thermal environment is very important to human health and medical practitioners. The most crucial environmental information needed by medical practitioners and for maintaining human health, performance, and well-being are thermal conditions. The study used meteorological variables: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and RayMan model as an analytical tool to compute physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) in order to assess thermo-physiological thresholds in Ondo State. The study revealed that there are marked spatial and seasonal variations in the environmental thermal conditions in the study area. The results of physiologically equivalent temperature for different grades of thermal sensation and physiological stress on human beings indicate that about 60 % of the total study period (1998–2008) fall under physiological stress level of moderate heat stress (PET 31–36 °C). In derived savannah, 32.6 % out of the total study period was under strong heat stress. In view of this, the study concluded that Ondo State may likely be prone to heat-related ailments and that some of the death recorded in the State, in recent times, may be heat-related mortality, but this is difficult to ascertain because there is no postmortem records in Nigeria where it could be confirmed. This type of study is relevant to help government to improve health care interventions and achieve Millennium Development Goals in health sector.     

Analytical model for computing residence times near a pumping well

An analytical solution for calculating the residence time of fluid flowing toward a pumping well in an unconfined aquifer has been developed. The analytical solution was derived based on a radial, steady-state, Dupuit-Forchheimer flow model. The resulting integral expression involved computing the imaginary error function, for which a simple series expansion is proposed. The validity of the analytical expression is demonstrated by testing its results against numerical results for an example problem. The analytical solution compared favorably with the numerical approximation.     

Does sea-level rise have an impact on saltwater intrusion?

Climate change effects are expected to substantially raise the average sea level. It is widely assumed that this raise will have a severe adverse impact on saltwater intrusion processes in coastal aquifers. In this study we hypothesize that a natural mechanism, identified here as the “lifting process,” has the potential to mitigate, or in some cases completely reverse, the adverse intrusion effects induced by sea-level rise. A detailed numerical study using the MODFLOW-family computer code SEAWAT was completed to test this hypothesis and to understand the effects of this lifting process in both confined and unconfined systems. Our conceptual simulation results show that if the ambient recharge remains constant, the sea-level rise will have no long-term impact (i.e., it will not affect the steady-state salt wedge) on confined aquifers. Our transient confined-flow simulations show a self-reversal mechanism where the wedge which will initially intrude into the formation due to the sea-level rise would be naturally driven back to the original position. In unconfined systems, the lifting process would have a lesser influence due to changes in the value of effective transmissivity. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also completed to understand the sensitivity of this self-reversal effect to various aquifer parameters.     

A bio-available strontium isoscape for eastern Beringia: a tool for tracking landscape use of Pleistocene megafauna

Numerous paleoecological questions concern the mobility of ancient fauna in eastern Beringia. Strontium (Sr) isotope ratio (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) analysis has emerged as a powerful tracer for determining the provenance of ancient biological materials. However, it is important to characterize ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr variation across a landscape. We measured the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr composition of teeth from present-day, herbivorous rodents (n = 162) sampled from across eastern Beringia to estimate bio-available ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values. We compiled these data with the very limited number of previously published ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values from the region. We then used this dataset and a machine learning, random-forest regression to predict bio-available ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr variations across eastern Beringia. As a case study using our new ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr map (isoscape), we measured the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and oxygen stable isotope values (δ¹⁸O) of five radiocarbon-dated steppe bison from eastern Beringia and compared these to our ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr isoscape and a δ¹⁸O isoscape to estimate the probable landscape use of these ancient fauna. Our model and isoscape provide important foundations for a wide range of additional applications, including studies of the paleo-mobility of other fauna, ancient people and present-day fauna in eastern Beringia.     

Quality analysis applied on eddy covariance measurements at complex forest sites using footprint modelling

Summary Measuring turbulent fluxes with the eddy covariance method has become a widely accepted and powerful tool for the determination of long term data sets for the exchange of momentum, sensible and latent heat, and trace gases such as CO₂ between the atmosphere and the underlying surface. Several flux networks developed continuous measurements above complex terrain, e.g. AmeriFlux and EUROFLUX, with a strong focus on the net exchange of CO₂ between the atmosphere and the underlying surface. Under many conditions basic assumptions for the eddy covariance method in its simplified form, such as stationarity of the flow, homogeneity of the surface and fully developed turbulence of the flow field, are not fulfilled. To deal with non-ideal conditions which are common at many FLUXNET sites, quality tests have been developed to check if these basic theoretical assumptions are valid.In the framework of the CARBOEUROFLUX project, we combined quality tests described by Foken and Wichura (1996) with the analytical footprint model of Schmid (1997). The aim was to identify suitable wind sectors and meteorological conditions for flux measurements. These tools were used on data of 18 participating sites. Quality tests were applied on the fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat, and on the CO₂-flux, respectively. The influence of the topography on the vertical wind component was also checked. At many sites the land use around the flux towers is not homogeneous or the fetch may not be large enough. So the relative contribution of the land use type intended to be measured was also investigated. Thus the developed tool allows comparative investigations of the measured turbulent fluxes at different sites if using the same technique and algorithms for the determination of the fluxes as well as analyses of potential problems caused by influences of the surrounding land use patterns.     

Linking reforestation policies with land use change in northern Vietnam: Why local factors matter

In many countries worldwide, similar state policies on land management have been implemented as a response to deforestation in mountainous areas. So far, few studies have examined to which extent these policies have actually contributed to reforestation. This is the focus of our analysis, based on a case study in Vietnam. Because land access and land use were traditionally governed by common rules, we examine land use changes from an institutional perspective. We use the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, coupled with an historical perspective and the analysis of actors’ perception and dominant narratives on land management and forests. Results show that national policies significantly interfered with local factors, leading to a complex course of decision-making and action. Substantial reforestation in the area was not a response by farmers to policy incentives but rather the unexpected outcome of the disruption of local institutions by these policies. We argue that, because national interventions have relied on false or exaggerated narratives and beliefs, their implementation is in conflict with the local reality in upland areas, leading to unpredictable and locally dependent outcomes. We defend hence the need for local level studies and also recommend considering local institutions for land use change analysis in contexts where land use systems are characterised by a high degree of human interaction.     

A search for variable stars in the globular cluster M3

We describe here the results of a photometric time-sequence survey of the globular cluster M3 (NGC 5272), in a search for contact and detached eclipsing binary stars. We have discovered only one likely eclipsing binary and one SX Phe-type star in spite of monitoring 4077 stars with V  < 20.0 and observing 25 blue straggler stars (BSS). The newly identified SX Phe star, V237, shows a light curve with a variable amplitude. Variable V238 shows variability either with a period of 0.49 d or with a period of 0.25 d. On the cluster colour–magnitude diagram, the variable occupies a position a few hundredths of a magnitude to the blue of the base of the red giant branch. V238 is a likely descendant of a binary blue straggler.   As a side result we obtained high-quality data for 42 of the previously known RR Lyrae variables, including 33 of Bailey type ab, seven type c and two double-mode pulsators. We used equations that relate the physical properties of RRc stars to their pulsation periods and Fourier parameters in order to derive masses, luminosities, temperatures and helium parameters for five of the RRc stars. We also tested equations that relate the [Fe/H], M _V and temperature of RRab stars to pulsation period and Fourier parameters. We derived [Fe/H]= −1.42 in good agreement with spectroscopic determinations.