Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Western Liguria (North Western Italy): A first attempt towards the understanding and quantification of hazard uncertainty

The use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses often involves a large number of branches that reflect the uncertainty in the selection of different models and in the selection of the parameter values of each model. The sensitivity analysis, as proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817], is an efficient tool that allows the construction of logic trees focusing attention on the parameters that have greater impact on the hazard.In this paper the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify the parameters that have the largest influence on the Western Liguria (North Western Italy) seismic hazard. The analysis is conducted for six strategic sites following the multi-parameter approach developed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817] and accounts for both mean hazard values and hazard values corresponding to different percentiles (e.g., 16%-ile and 84%-ile). The results are assessed in terms of the expected PGA with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock conditions and account for both the contribution from specific source zones using the Cornell approach [Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606] and the spatially smoothed seismicity [Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21]. The influence of different procedures for calculating seismic hazard, seismic catalogues (epicentral parameters), source zone models, frequency–magnitude parameters, maximum earthquake magnitude values and attenuation relationships is considered. As a result, the sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the parameters with higher influence on the hazard. Only these parameters should be subjected to careful discussion or further research in order to reduce the uncertainty in the hazard while those with little or no effect can be excluded from subsequent logic-tree-based seismic hazard analyses.     

Biosedimentary record of postglacial coastal dynamics: high‐resolution sequence stratigraphy from the northern Tuscan coast (Italy)

Integrating analysis of the benthic palaeoecological record with multivariate ordination techniques represents a powerful synergy able to provide an improved characterization of coastal depositional facies in a sequence stratigraphical perspective. Through quantitative analysis of benthic foraminifer, ostracod and mollusc associations from the postglacial succession of Core M3 (Arno coastal plain, Tuscany, Italy), and application of detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) to the mollusc sub‐data set, we offer a refined picture of stratigraphical variations in faunal content from a paralic depositional setting, and reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental gradients that account for such variations. Despite distinct ecological behaviours, and taphonomic and sedimentological constraints, a strong ecological control on meio‐ and macrofaunal biofacies and taxa turnover is documented across the study succession. Amongst all possible mechanisms that may play a role in ‘shaping’ fossil distribution, the ecological signal driven by salinity represents the most prominent factor controlling the composition of fossil associations in the cored succession. Molluscs can even provide outstanding quantitative estimates of palaeosalinity along the sampled core. When plotted stratigraphically, the three fossil sub‐data sets show consistent patterns of vertical evolution that enable prompt identification of the key surfaces for sequence stratigraphical interpretation in otherwise lithologically indistinguishable deposits. The concomitant maximum richness of species with strong marine affinity, paralleled by the highest DCA salinity estimates, allows recognition of the maximum flooding zone, dated to ～7.7 cal. ka BP, within a homogeneous succession of outer lagoon clays. These clays are sandwiched between early transgressive, swamp to inner lagoon deposits and overlying prograding coastal?alluvial plain facies.     

The Second World Landslide Forum

ICL\IPL Activities

The Second World Landslide Forum     

Historical behaviour of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica) as investigated by snow accumulation and ice velocity measurements

Ice divide–dome behaviour is used for ice sheet mass balance studies and interpretation of ice core records. In order to characterize the historical behaviour (last 400 yr) of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica), ice velocities have been measured since 1996 using a GPS system, and the palaeo-spatial variability of snow accumulation has been surveyed using snow radar and firn cores. The snow accumulation distribution of both domes indicates distributions of accumulation that are non-symmetrical in relation to dome morphology. Changes in spatial distributions have been observed over the last few centuries, with a decrease in snow accumulation gradient along the wind direction at Talos Dome and a counter-clockwise rotation of accumulation distribution in the northern part of Dome C. Observations at Dome C reveal a significant increase in accumulation since the 1950s, which could correlate to altered snow accumulation patterns due to changes in snowfall trajectory. Snow accumulation mechanisms are different at the two domes: a wind-driven snow accumulation process operates at Talos Dome, whereas snowfall trajectory direction is the main factor at Dome C. Repeated GPS measurements made at Talos Dome have highlighted changes in ice velocity, with a deceleration in the NE portion, acceleration in the SW portion and migration of dome summit, which are apparently correlated with changes in accumulation distribution. The observed behaviour in accumulation and velocity indicates that even the most remote areas of East Antarctica have changed from a decadal to secular scale.     

Chemostratigraphy of the Tamengo Formation (Corumbá Group,Brazil): A contribution to the calibration of the Ediacaran carbon-isotope curve

The Corumbá Group, cropping out in the southern Paraguay Belt in Brazil, is one of the most complete Ediacaran sedimentary archives of palaeogeographic, climatic, biogeochemical and biotic evolution in southwestern Gondwana. The unit hosts a rich fossil record, including acritarchs, vendotaenids (Vendotaenia, Eoholynia), soft-bodied metazoans (Corumbella) and skeletal fossils (Cloudina, Titanotheca). The Tamengo Formation, made up mainly of limestones and marls, provides a rich bio- and chemostratigraphic record. Several outcrops, formerly assigned to the Cuiabá Group, are here included in the Tamengo Formation on the basis of lithological and chemostratigraphical criteria. High-resolution carbon isotopic analyses are reported for the Tamengo Formation, showing (from base to top): (1) a positive δ¹³C excursion to +4‰ PDB above post-glacial negative values, (2) a negative excursion to −3.5‰ associated with a marked regression and subsequent transgression, (3) a positive excursion to +5.5‰, and (4) a plateau characterized by δ¹³C around +3‰. A U-Pb SHRIMP zircon age of an ash bed interbedded in the upper part of the δ¹³C positive plateau yielded 543 ± 3 Ma, which is considered as the depositional age ( Babinski et al., 2008a). The positive plateau in the upper Tamengo Formation and the preceding positive excursion are ubiquitous features in several successions worldwide, including the Nama Group (Namibia), the Dengying Formation (South China) and the Nafun and Ara groups (Oman). This plateau is constrained between 542 and 551 Ma, thus consistent with the age of the upper Tamengo Formation. The negative excursion of the lower Tamengo Formation may be correlated to the Shuram–Wonoka negative anomaly, although δ¹³C values do not fall beyond −3.5‰ in the Brazilian sections. Sedimentary breccias occur just beneath this negative excursion in the lower Tamengo Formation. One possible interpretation of the origin of these breccias is a glacioeustatic sea-level fall, but a tectonic interpretation cannot be completely ruled out.     

Supportive elements to the decision-making process in the emergency planning of the Angra dos Reis Nuclear Power Complex,Brazil

Accidents in nuclear power plants are problems of great complexity, mainly due to their consequences, such as the population evacuation from the enterprise influence area. The decision-making and emergency plans must be well articulated and require good local geographic space knowledge and the interactions of their environments. This study is a contribution to the emergency plans for the Almirante Álvaro Alberto Nuclear Power Plant, currently the only nuclear complex in Brazil, located in Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro. The study confirmed the region’s main geoenvironmental aspects as winds and rainfall, landslides and population density were evaluated as important elements in the local emergency process. Their integrated analysis supported scenario identification and critical regional points and highlighted population evacuation escape routes. These important results characterized the support to local emergency management actions and guidelines. Furthermore, the geographic information systems was configured as an integrated spatial and temporal analysis platform to associate meteorological, geological/geomorphological and socio-economic data, playing a key role to support the evacuation planning in the event of nuclear power plant accidents.