Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble

We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss how the anthropogenic climate change under A1B scenario influences both the patterns of mean change of extreme indices and the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme indices. The likelihood of occurrence of a year with a large number of days with “warm” minimum temperatures is estimated to increase by a factor of 4 by the end of this century over most of the southern extratropics. By that time, the risk of “severe” precipitation intensity is projected to rise in most areas with the exception of the subtropical anticyclones, which experience particularly strong drying. Over the Southern Ocean this likelihood has increased to over 60%. Corresponding estimates of the changing likelihood for very long dry spells show a banded structure with positive ratios to the north of about 50° S and negative ratios in the sub Antarctic seas. In southern South America this risk about doubled between present and future climates. Then, we explore if the Southern Annular Mode influences the occurrence of severe extreme indices during the period 2070–2099. Its positive phase inhibits the extremely warm minimum temperatures in the Southern Ocean, with the exception of the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, and favors severe frost days to the north of the Ross Sea. Temperature indices show very little change induced by the SAM to the north of 50° S. Severe dry spells are inhibited during the positive phase along the sub Antarctic seas, while the mid-latitudes, including most of Patagonia, show the opposite behaviour. The Southern Ocean reveals a non-uniform distribution with both increases and decreases in the occurrence of heavier precipitation during positive SAM.     

N-body simulations for testing the stability of triaxial galaxies in MOND

We perform a stability test of triaxial models in Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) using N -body simulations. The triaxial models considered here have densities that vary with   r ⁻¹  in the centre and   r ⁻⁴  at large radii. The total mass of the model varies from 10⁸ to  10¹⁰ M_⊙  , representing the mass scale of dwarfs to medium-mass elliptical galaxies, respectively, from deep MOND to quasi-Newtonian gravity. We build triaxial galaxy models using the Schwarzschild technique, and evolve the systems for 200 Keplerian dynamical times (at the typical length-scale of 1.0 kpc). We find that the systems are virial overheating, and in quasi-equilibrium with the relaxation taking approximately 5 Keplerian dynamical times (1.0 kpc). For all systems, the change of the inertial (kinetic) energy is less than 10 per cent (20 per cent) after relaxation. However, the central profile of the model is flattened during the relaxation and the (overall) axis ratios change by roughly 10 per cent within 200 Keplerian dynamical times (at 1.0 kpc) in our simulations. We further find that the systems are stable once they reach the equilibrium state.     

Geometric interpretation for the spectral stability in the charged three-body problem

We present a geometric interpretation of the spectral stability of the triangular libration points in the charged three-body problem. We obtain that the spectral stability varies with the position of the center of mass of the three charges with respect to the circumcenter of the triangle configuration, which does not depend directly of the charges. If the center of mass is outside or on the circumference of a well defined radius ??, then spectral stability occurs. In addition, we analyze the existence of resonances within the spectral region of stability under this geometric interpretation, determining resonance curves of order 2, 3, 4, . . ., some of them with multiple resonances.     

Historical behaviour of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica) as investigated by snow accumulation and ice velocity measurements

Ice divide–dome behaviour is used for ice sheet mass balance studies and interpretation of ice core records. In order to characterize the historical behaviour (last 400 yr) of Dome C and Talos Dome (East Antarctica), ice velocities have been measured since 1996 using a GPS system, and the palaeo-spatial variability of snow accumulation has been surveyed using snow radar and firn cores. The snow accumulation distribution of both domes indicates distributions of accumulation that are non-symmetrical in relation to dome morphology. Changes in spatial distributions have been observed over the last few centuries, with a decrease in snow accumulation gradient along the wind direction at Talos Dome and a counter-clockwise rotation of accumulation distribution in the northern part of Dome C. Observations at Dome C reveal a significant increase in accumulation since the 1950s, which could correlate to altered snow accumulation patterns due to changes in snowfall trajectory. Snow accumulation mechanisms are different at the two domes: a wind-driven snow accumulation process operates at Talos Dome, whereas snowfall trajectory direction is the main factor at Dome C. Repeated GPS measurements made at Talos Dome have highlighted changes in ice velocity, with a deceleration in the NE portion, acceleration in the SW portion and migration of dome summit, which are apparently correlated with changes in accumulation distribution. The observed behaviour in accumulation and velocity indicates that even the most remote areas of East Antarctica have changed from a decadal to secular scale.     

Mechanical interpretation of dry granular masses impacting on rigid obstacles

Acta Geotechnica - The evaluation of impact forces exerted by flowing granular masses on rigid obstacles is of fundamental importance for the assessment of the associated risk and for the design of...     

Biosedimentary record of postglacial coastal dynamics: high‐resolution sequence stratigraphy from the northern Tuscan coast (Italy)

Integrating analysis of the benthic palaeoecological record with multivariate ordination techniques represents a powerful synergy able to provide an improved characterization of coastal depositional facies in a sequence stratigraphical perspective. Through quantitative analysis of benthic foraminifer, ostracod and mollusc associations from the postglacial succession of Core M3 (Arno coastal plain, Tuscany, Italy), and application of detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) to the mollusc sub‐data set, we offer a refined picture of stratigraphical variations in faunal content from a paralic depositional setting, and reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental gradients that account for such variations. Despite distinct ecological behaviours, and taphonomic and sedimentological constraints, a strong ecological control on meio‐ and macrofaunal biofacies and taxa turnover is documented across the study succession. Amongst all possible mechanisms that may play a role in ‘shaping’ fossil distribution, the ecological signal driven by salinity represents the most prominent factor controlling the composition of fossil associations in the cored succession. Molluscs can even provide outstanding quantitative estimates of palaeosalinity along the sampled core. When plotted stratigraphically, the three fossil sub‐data sets show consistent patterns of vertical evolution that enable prompt identification of the key surfaces for sequence stratigraphical interpretation in otherwise lithologically indistinguishable deposits. The concomitant maximum richness of species with strong marine affinity, paralleled by the highest DCA salinity estimates, allows recognition of the maximum flooding zone, dated to ～7.7 cal. ka BP, within a homogeneous succession of outer lagoon clays. These clays are sandwiched between early transgressive, swamp to inner lagoon deposits and overlying prograding coastal?alluvial plain facies.     

Meteorological and Streamflow Droughts: Characteristics,Trends, and Propagation in the Milwaukee River Basin

This study examined meteorological and streamflow droughts for the period from 1951 to 2006 using the Milwaukee River basin in Wisconsin as the study area in an effort to improve the understanding of drought propagation. Specifically, this study aimed to answer the following research questions: (1) What are the temporal trends of meteorological and streamflow droughts identified by drought indicators? (2) How do the drought indicators manifest drought propagation? Meteorological droughts were identified using the Effective Drought Index (EDI), and streamflow droughts were identified using a threshold-level approach. The intensity and duration of both types of drought were found to have decreased over time, most likely due to increasing precipitation. Therefore, in the study area, and likely in the larger region, drought has become of less concern. The propagation of meteorological drought into streamflow drought was detected generally after moderate and severe sequences of negative EDI that eventually led to extreme meteorological drought events. The study finds that both EDI and the threshold-level approach are effective in diagnosing meteorological and streamflow drought events of all durations.     

The Italian guidelines for seismic risk classification of constructions: technical principles and validation

The Italian “Guidelines for the seismic risk classification of constructions” approved in February 2017 define the technical principles for exploiting tax deductions with respect to seismic strengthening interventions on existing buildings (Sismabonus). Tax deductions represent a unique opportunity to improve the seismic safety of the existing Italian building stock. The guidelines are very simple and allow practitioners to deal with the sophisticated concepts behind modern seismic design, such as expected annual losses (EAL) and repair costs (expressed as a fraction of the Reconstruction Cost: %RC). The seismic risk classes of buildings and the class upgrade due to strengthening interventions can be assessed using the principles included in the guidelines. The seismic risk class is the minimum between the class defined by the building safety index at the ultimate limit state and the one related to the EAL. The latter class depends on the area under the curve of the expected losses, which is easily obtained by computing the safety index converted in the return period (annual frequency) at different limit states and the relevant %RC. This paper illustrates the technical principles at the base of the guidelines and the procedure used to calibrate the repair costs associated with the different limit states using the actual repair costs monitored in the reconstruction process following recent Italian earthquakes. Finally, simple tools to estimate the cost of the strengthening interventions to improve the seismic capacity at the life-safety limit states are provided.     

Deep tunnel fronts in cohesive soils under undrained conditions: a displacement-based approach for the design of fibreglass reinforcements

The fronts of tunnels excavated under particularly difficult ground conditions by employing conventional tunnelling methods are commonly supported: the stabilization is usually achieved either by improving the mechanical properties of the soil (injections, jet grouting, soil freezing, etc.) or by introducing linear inclusions. This last technique, consisting in the introduction of pipes (usually made of fibreglass reinforced polymers) in the front, is particularly popular since it is very simple to adapt the reinforcement geometry, length and number to the different conditions encountered during the excavation. The design of this reinforcement technique is nowadays based on very simplified approaches: on either empirical formula or the limit equilibrium method. In a previous paper, the authors numerically studied the mechanical response of unreinforced fronts in cohesive soils and defined a non-dimensional front characteristic curve. In this paper, the authors intend to take into consideration the role of reinforcements by following the same approach. A procedure allowing the definition of the reinforced non-dimensional front characteristic curve, once the reinforcement pattern is assigned, is introduced. The practical use of this curve is described.