A cosmological study of the star formation history in the solar neighbourhood

We use a cosmological galactic evolutionary approach to model the Milky Way. A detailed treatment of the mass aggregation and dynamical history of the growing dark halo is included, together with a self-consistent physical treatment for the star formation processes within the growing galactic disc. This allows us to calculate the temporal evolution of star and gas surface densities at all galactic radii, in particular, the star formation history (SFH) at the solar radius. A large range of cosmological mass aggregation histories (MAHs) is capable of producing a galaxy with the present-day properties of the Milky Way. The resulting SFHs for the solar neighbourhood bracket the available observational data for this feature, the most probable MAH yielding the optimal comparison with these observations. We also find that the rotation curve for our Galaxy implies the presence of a constant density core in its dark-matter halo.     

Stress–dilatancy based modelling of granular materials and extensions to soils with crushable grains

Stress–dilatancy relations have played a crucial role in the understanding of the mechanical behaviour of soils and in the development of realistic constitutive models for their response. Recent investigations on the mechanical behaviour of materials with crushable grains have called into question the validity of classical relations such as those used in critical state soil mechanics. In this paper, a method to construct thermodynamically consistent (isotropic, three‐invariant) elasto‐plastic models based on a given stress–dilatancy relation is discussed. Extensions to cover the case of granular materials with crushable grains are also presented, based on the interpretation of some classical model parameters (e.g. the stress ratio at critical state) as internal variables that evolve according to suitable hardening laws. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Correlation of Plio-Pleistocene deposits of the Lower Rhine Basin (North-West Germany) and the Valle Ricca pits (Central Italy)

Biostratigraphic and palaeomagnetic research has been carried out on selected profiles in North-Western Germany and Central Italy in order to correlate Plio-Pleistocene sections.Around the Réunion subchronozone, vegetation in the Valle Ricca was dominated by a mountain forest type pointing to cool climatic conditions. In the Lower Rhine Basin vegetation had a slightly warmer character, but was also dominated strongly by a mountain type of forest vegetation, characteristic of cooler summers and higher precipitation than at present.Two warmer periods have been determined in the Central Italian profiles; the youngest around the Olduvai reversal, should correspond to the youngest Tiglian beds of the Lower Rhine Basin.Deposits older than the Réunion subzone have not been found in the Valle Ricca. In the Lower Rhine Basin, on the other hand, the Gauss-Matuyama boundary is located between the uppermost Pliocene, the Reuverian C and the Praetiglian.     

Current confinement in solar coronal loops

In this paper solar coronal loops are regarded as regions of localized current flows. The main purpose is to investigate the consequences of current confinement rather than to produce a model. The physical and observational basis for this assumption are presented as well as the connection with previous studies on loop structure. A proper choice of the current profile allows us to treat quantitatively the equilibrium structure of the loops and their MHD and resistive stability properties. Regions of absolute stability against ideal kink modes are found. Explicit growth rates for the tearing-mode instability are computed. The possible relevance of other resistive effects is also discussed and the crucial importance of the small-scale geometry of the magnetic field outlined.     

Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.     

Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble

We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss how the anthropogenic climate change under A1B scenario influences both the patterns of mean change of extreme indices and the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme indices. The likelihood of occurrence of a year with a large number of days with “warm” minimum temperatures is estimated to increase by a factor of 4 by the end of this century over most of the southern extratropics. By that time, the risk of “severe” precipitation intensity is projected to rise in most areas with the exception of the subtropical anticyclones, which experience particularly strong drying. Over the Southern Ocean this likelihood has increased to over 60%. Corresponding estimates of the changing likelihood for very long dry spells show a banded structure with positive ratios to the north of about 50° S and negative ratios in the sub Antarctic seas. In southern South America this risk about doubled between present and future climates. Then, we explore if the Southern Annular Mode influences the occurrence of severe extreme indices during the period 2070–2099. Its positive phase inhibits the extremely warm minimum temperatures in the Southern Ocean, with the exception of the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, and favors severe frost days to the north of the Ross Sea. Temperature indices show very little change induced by the SAM to the north of 50° S. Severe dry spells are inhibited during the positive phase along the sub Antarctic seas, while the mid-latitudes, including most of Patagonia, show the opposite behaviour. The Southern Ocean reveals a non-uniform distribution with both increases and decreases in the occurrence of heavier precipitation during positive SAM.     

Geometric interpretation for the spectral stability in the charged three-body problem

We present a geometric interpretation of the spectral stability of the triangular libration points in the charged three-body problem. We obtain that the spectral stability varies with the position of the center of mass of the three charges with respect to the circumcenter of the triangle configuration, which does not depend directly of the charges. If the center of mass is outside or on the circumference of a well defined radius ??, then spectral stability occurs. In addition, we analyze the existence of resonances within the spectral region of stability under this geometric interpretation, determining resonance curves of order 2, 3, 4, . . ., some of them with multiple resonances.     

The Italian guidelines for seismic risk classification of constructions: technical principles and validation

The Italian “Guidelines for the seismic risk classification of constructions” approved in February 2017 define the technical principles for exploiting tax deductions with respect to seismic strengthening interventions on existing buildings (Sismabonus). Tax deductions represent a unique opportunity to improve the seismic safety of the existing Italian building stock. The guidelines are very simple and allow practitioners to deal with the sophisticated concepts behind modern seismic design, such as expected annual losses (EAL) and repair costs (expressed as a fraction of the Reconstruction Cost: %RC). The seismic risk classes of buildings and the class upgrade due to strengthening interventions can be assessed using the principles included in the guidelines. The seismic risk class is the minimum between the class defined by the building safety index at the ultimate limit state and the one related to the EAL. The latter class depends on the area under the curve of the expected losses, which is easily obtained by computing the safety index converted in the return period (annual frequency) at different limit states and the relevant %RC. This paper illustrates the technical principles at the base of the guidelines and the procedure used to calibrate the repair costs associated with the different limit states using the actual repair costs monitored in the reconstruction process following recent Italian earthquakes. Finally, simple tools to estimate the cost of the strengthening interventions to improve the seismic capacity at the life-safety limit states are provided.     

Hierarchical simulation of aquifer heterogeneity: implications of different simulation settings on solute-transport modeling

The fine-scale heterogeneity of porous media affects the large-scale transport of solutes and contaminants in groundwater and it can be reproduced by means of several geostatistical simulation tools. However, including the available geological information in these tools is often cumbersome. A hierarchical simulation procedure based on a binary tree is proposed and tested on two real-world blocks of alluvial sediments, of a few cubic meters volume, that represent small-scale aquifer analogs. The procedure is implemented using the sequential indicator simulation, but it is so general that it can be adapted to various geostatistical simulation tools, improving their capability to incorporate geological information, i.e., the sedimentological and architectural characterization of heterogeneity. When compared with a standard sequential indicator approach on bi-dimensional simulations, in terms of proportions and connectivity indicators, the proposed procedure yields reliable results, closer to the reference observations. Different ensembles of three-dimensional simulations based on different hierarchical sequences are used to perform numerical experiments of conservative solute transport and to obtain ensembles of equivalent pore velocity and dispersion coefficient at the scale length of the blocks (meter). Their statistics are used to estimate the impact of the variability of the transport properties of the simulated blocks on contaminant transport modeled on bigger domains (hectometer). This is investigated with a one-dimensional transport modeling based on the Kolmogorov-Dmitriev theory of branching stochastic processes. Applying the proposed approach with diverse binary trees and different simulation settings provides a great flexibility, which is revealed by the differences in the breakthrough curves.