Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology - A comparison of methods

This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter λ to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.     

Geographic variations in shell growth rates of the mussel Diplodon chilensis from temperate lakes of Chile: Implications for biodiversity conservation

The Chilean lake district includes diverse lentic ecosystems along ca. 700 km of the country (36°–43°S), including the “Nahuelbutan lakes”, “Araucanian lakes” and “Chiloe lakes”. This area is recognized as an important “hot spot” of benthic freshwater biodiversity in Southern South America. In Chilean temperate lakes, increased nutrient loads of P and N caused eutrophication, particularly in the Nahuelbutan Lakes. The freshwater Hyriidae mussel Diplodon chilensis (Gray, 1828) which is one of the most abundant species in Chilean temperate lakes, is known to be very susceptible to eutrophication. This species presents a clear reduction in its geographic ranges and is considered to be a threatened species in many Chilean lakes. In this study, we used a correlative approach to determine how eutrophication-driven changes in the food supply and in geographical parameters of different Chilean lakes affected the shell growth rates of D. chilensis. The results obtained from sclerochronological analyses of the mussel shells suggest an association with a group of environmental variables, including geographical types (negative), such as latitude and altitude, and limnological types (positive), especially phosphorous and turbidity. However, the D. chilensis populations under extreme conditions of turbidity in eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes are extinct or nearly so. The high positive correlation of the mean D. chilensis growth rates with orthophosphate (R=0.76; P<0.05), in relation to dissolved inorganic nitrogen, suggests that P is the major limiting factor of the primary productivity in Chilean temperate lakes. We discuss some implications of our results in terms of the conservation of biodiversity in temperate lake ecosystems at different taxonomic levels.     

Dynamics of a particle in a gravitational field of a homogeneous annulus disk

We formulate the problem of an infinitesimal particle moving in the space under the influence of the gravitational force induced by a homogeneous annulus disk fixed on a plane. We compute using different coordinates and in terms of an elliptic integral the potential associated to this problem. Also we study the symmetries of the associated potential. After that, we look at the dynamics in some particular cases, namely: in the line perpendicular to the plane that contains the annulus disk and passes through the center of the ring and on the plane that contains the massive annulus.      

A numerical method for the study of shear band propagation in soft rocks

This paper investigates the possibility of interpreting progressive shear failure in hard soils and soft rocks as the result of shear propagation of a pre‐existing natural defect. This is done through the application of the principles of fracture mechanics, a slip‐weakening model (SWM) being used to simulate the non‐linear zone at the tips of the discontinuity. A numerical implementation of the SWM in a computation method based on the boundary element technique of the displacement discontinuity method (DDM) is presented. The crack and the non‐linear zone at the advancing tip are represented through a set of elements, where the displacement discontinuity (DD) in the tangential direction is determined on the basis of a friction law. A residual friction angle is assumed on the crack elements. Shear resistance decreases on elements in the non‐linear zone from a peak value at the tip, which is characteristic of intact material, to the residual value. The simulation of a uniaxial compressive test in plane strain conditions is carried out to exemplify the numerical methodology. The results emphasize the role played by the critical DD on the mechanical behaviour of the specimen. A validation of the model is shown through the back analysis of some experimental observations. The results of this back analysis show that a non‐linear fracture mechanics approach seems very promising to simulate experimental results, in particular with regards to the shear band evolution pattern. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Tauern Window (Eastern Alps, Austria): a new tectonic map, with cross-sections and a tectonometamorphic synthesis

We present a tectonic map of the Tauern Window and surrounding units (Eastern Alps, Austria), combined with a series of crustal-scale cross-sections parallel and perpendicular to the Alpine orogen. This compilation, largely based on literature data and completed by own investigations, reveals that the present-day structure of the Tauern Window is primarily characterized by a crustal-scale duplex, the Venediger Duplex (Venediger Nappe system), formed during the Oligocene, and overprinted by doming and lateral extrusion during the Miocene. This severe Miocene overprint was most probably triggered by the indentation of the Southalpine Units east of the Giudicarie Belt, initiating at 23–21 Ma and linked to a lithosphere-scale reorganization of the geometry of mantle slabs. A kinematic reconstruction shows that accretion of European lithosphere and oceanic domains to the Adriatic (Austroalpine) upper plate, accompanied by high-pressure overprint of some of the units of the Tauern Window, has a long history, starting in Turonian time (around 90 Ma) and culminating in Lutetian to Bartonian time (45–37 Ma).     

Impact of grid resolution on the integrated and distributed response of a coupled surface–subsurface hydrological model for the des Anglais catchment,Quebec

Digital elevation models (DEMs) at different resolutions (180, 360, and 720 m) are used to examine the impact of different levels of landscape representation on the hydrological response of a 690‐km² catchment in southern Quebec. Frequency distributions of local slope, plan curvature, and drainage area are calculated for each grid size resolution. This landscape analysis reveals that DEM grid size significantly affects computed topographic attributes, which in turn explains some of the differences in the hydrological simulations. The simulations that are then carried out, using a coupled, process‐based model of surface and subsurface flow, examine the effects of grid size on both the integrated response of the catchment (discharge at the main outlet and at two internal points) and the distributed response (water table depth, surface saturation, and soil water storage). The results indicate that discharge volumes increase as the DEM is coarsened, and that coarser DEMs are also wetter overall in terms of water table depth and soil water storage. The reasons for these trends include an increase in the total drainage area of the catchment for larger DEM cell sizes, due to aggregation effects at the boundary cells of the catchment, and to a decrease in local slope and plan curvature variations, which in turn limits the capacity of the watershed to transmit water downslope and laterally. The results obtained also show that grid resolution effects are less pronounced during dry periods when soil moisture dynamics are mostly controlled by vertical fluxes of evaporation and percolation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Generalized Backward Euler algorithm for the numerical integration of an isotropic hardening elastoplastic model for mechanical and chemical degradation of bonded geomaterials

An extended version of the classical Generalized Backward Euler (GBE) algorithm is proposed for the numerical integration of a three‐invariant isotropic‐hardening elastoplastic model for cemented soils or weak rocks undergoing mechanical and non‐mechanical degradation processes. The restriction to isotropy allows to formulate the return mapping algorithm in the space of principal elastic strains. In this way, an efficient and robust integration scheme is developed which can be applied to relatively complex yield surface and plastic potential functions. Moreover, the proposed algorithm can be linearized in closed form, thus allowing for quadratic convergence in the global Newton iteration. A series of numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the accuracy and convergence properties of the algorithm. Selected results from a finite element analysis of a circular footing on a soft rock layer undergoing chemical weathering are then presented to illustrate the algorithm performance at the boundary value problem level. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fundamental physics and absolute positioning metrology with the MAGIA lunar orbiter

MAGIA is a mission approved by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) for Phase A study. Using a single large-diameter laser retroreflector, a large laser retroreflector array and an atomic clock onboard MAGIA we propose to perform several fundamental physics and absolute positioning metrology experiments: VESPUCCI, an improved test of the gravitational redshift in the Earth?CMoon system predicted by General Relativity; MoonLIGHT-P, a precursor test of a second generation Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR) payload for precision gravity and lunar science measurements under development for NASA, ASI and robotic missions of the proposed International Lunar Network (ILN); Selenocenter (the center of mass of the Moon), the determination of the position of the Moon center of mass with respect to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame/System (ITRF/ITRS); this will be compared to the one from Apollo and Lunokhod retroreflectors on the surface; MapRef, the absolute referencing of MAGIA??s lunar altimetry, gravity and geochemical maps with respect to the ITRF/ITRS. The absolute positioning of MAGIA will be achieved thanks to: (1) the laboratory characterization of the retroreflector performance at INFN-LNF; (2) the precision tracking by the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS), which gives two fundamental contributions to the ITRF/ITRS, i.e. the metrological definition of the geocenter (the Earth center of mass) and of the scale of length; (3) the radio science and accelerometer payloads; (4) support by the ASI Space Geodesy Center in Matera, Italy. Future ILN geodetic nodes equipped with MoonLIGHT and the Apollo/Lunokhod retroreflectors will become the first realization of the International Moon Reference Frame (IMRF), the lunar analog of the ITRF.     

Multi-offset phase analysis of surface wave data (MOPA)

Inaccuracy in the shear wave velocity profile inverted from surface wave data manifests from both modelling error and data uncertainty. An alternative method for dispersion curve evaluation by weighted linear regression of phase-offset data can be applied to both equispaced and non-equispaced data for objective identification of these often overlooked error sources.From field data, near-field effects are noted to at most half a wavelength and lateral discontinuities identified by marked changes in wavenumber with offset. Transition frequencies to dominant higher modes appear lower than when identified from standard plane-wave transform methods. Effects can be discriminated by their frequency, position or offset dependence.When a non-corrupt dispersion curve is extracted, the errors are up to 5% at low frequency. Through theoretical Gaussian error propagation analysis, the resulting shear wave velocity profile shows up to 18% uncertainty at depth.     

Modelling mechanical behaviour of limestone under reservoir conditions

High porosity and low permeability limestone has presented pore collapse. As fluid is withdrawn from these reservoirs, the effective stresses acting on the rock increase. If the strength of the rock is overcome, pore collapse may occur, leading to irreversible compaction of porous media with permeability and porosity reduction. It impacts on fluid withdrawal. Most of reservoirs have been discovered in weak formations, which are susceptible to this phenomenon. This work presents a study on the mechanical behaviour of a porous limestone from a reservoir located in Campos Basin, offshore Brazil. An experimental program was undergone in order to define its elastic plastic behaviour. The tests reproduced the loading path conditions expected in a reservoir under production. Parameters of the cap model were fitted to these tests and numerical simulations were run. The numerical simulations presented a good agreement with the experimental tests. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.