Vulnerability and risk: comparing assessment approaches

The concepts vulnerability and risk are of great importance in the fields of climate change and natural hazards. Confusion is asserted in the terminology used by the respective communities, and a large conceptual literature has not solved this problem. This affects the communication within and between the two communities and the comparison of results from vulnerability and risk assessments. This paper argues that the main difference between methods to assess vulnerability and risk in the climate and the disaster communities is not a conceptual one, but rather different terminologies are used. This point is made using a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change that makes the structure of vulnerability and risk assessments explicit. The framework distinguishes three assessment approaches in the field of vulnerability to climate change, which recur—under different labels—in the risk assessment approaches analysed. While within each community, the same terms are ambiguously used to refer to more than one assessment approach, the confusion is enhanced between the two communities by using different labels for very similar approaches. As an application of the results, similarities and differences between two assessment tools are analysed: the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model (DIVA) for the case of vulnerability to climate change and the CATastrophe SIMulation model (CatSim) for risk of natural hazards.     

The forward problem of electromagnetic induction: accurate finite-difference approximations for two-dimensional discrete boundaries with arbitrary geometry

We describe finite-difference approximations to the equations of 2-D electromagnetic induction that permit discrete boundaries to have arbitrary geometrical relationships to the nodes. This allows finite-difference modelling with the flexibility normally ascribed to finite-element modelling. Accuracy is demonstrated by comparison with finite-element computations. We also show that related approximations lead to substantially improved accuracy in regions of steep, but not discontinuous, conductivity gradient.     

Melt/biotite B/B isotopic fractionation and the boron local environment in the structure of volcanic glasses

This paper is focused on the role of boron coordination in determining the ¹¹B/¹⁰B isotopic fractionation between melt/glass and biotite at magmatic temperatures. For this purpose, three evolved volcanic rocks from Roccastrada, Mt. Amiata, and Mt. Cimini belonging to the Neogene-Quaternary magmatism of central Italy were studied. In these samples, the measured boron biotite-glass partition coefficient ranges between 0.004 and 0.011, indicating that boron behaves as an incompatible element during biotite crystallization. The ¹¹B magic-angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra reveal the presence of trigonal BO_3/2 units, tetrahedral BO_4/2⁻ sites, and three-coordinated BO_2/2O⁻ species containing one nonbridging oxygen. The relative contributions of these different boron sites were estimated by spectral deconvolution, and it was observed that the fraction of trigonally coordinated boron decreases with increasing K₂O concentration in the glass. The ¹¹B/¹⁰B isotopic fractionation between biotite and melt/glass was observed to be large even at magmatic temperatures and was found to be 1.0066 (Roccastrada sample), 1.00535 (Mt. Amiata sample), and 1.00279 (Mt. Cimini sample). Fractionation is mostly related to the relative amount of trigonal and tetrahedral boron sites in the glass network rather than to other processes, including the speciation of hydrous species in the glass structure. The measured α values are significantly higher than the calculated ones obtained using the reduced partition function ratios (RPFRs) for B(OH)₃ and B(OH)₄⁻ as reported by Kakihana et al. (1977) and the abundance of trigonal and tetrahedral boron obtained by ¹¹B NMR spectra. Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship is observed between the percentage of BO₄ in the glass structure and the measured 1000lnα, suggesting that the approximation of monomeric B(OH)₃ and B(OH)₄⁻ species contributions through ideal mixing in calculating the RPFRs in polyanions (Oi et al., 1989) probably does not apply to silicate glasses.The large B isotopic fractionation measured between glass and biotite and its dependence on the boron coordination in the glass are a limitation to the use of δ¹¹B in the mineral to characterize magmas. Nonetheless, the high incompatible behavior of boron in the most common magmatic minerals rules out that fractional crystallization significantly modified the B isotopic composition of the melt.     

Non-linear soil-structure-interaction analysis using green's function of soil in the time domain

The contribution of the (linear) unbounded soil to the basic equation of motion of a non-linear analysis of soil-structure interaction consists of convolution integrals of the displacement-force relationship in the time domain and the history of the interaction forces. The former is calculated using the indirect boundary-element method, which is based on a weighted-residual technique and involves Green's functions. As an example of a non-linear soil-structure-interaction analysis, the partial uplift of the basemat of a structure is examined. As the convolution integrals have to be recalculated for each time step, the computational effort in this rigorous procedure is substantial. A reduction can be achieved by simplifying the Green's function by ‘concentrating’ the region of influence. Alternatively, assuming a specified wave pattern, a coupled system of springs and dashpots with frequency-independent coefficients can be used as an approximation.     

Copepod grazing during spring blooms: Does Calanus pacificus avoid harmful diatoms?

During late winter and spring of 2002 and 2003, 24, 2–3 day cruises were conducted to Dabob Bay, Washington State, USA, to examine the grazing, egg production, and hatching success rates of adult female Calanus pacificus and Pseudocalanus newmani. The results of the copepod grazing experiments for C. pacificus are discussed here. Each week, copepod grazing incubation experiments from two different depth layers were conducted. Grazing was measured by both changes in chlorophyll concentration and cell counts. In 2002, there was one moderate bloom consisting mainly of Thalassiosira spp. in early February, and a larger bloom in April comprised of two Chaetoceros species and Phaeocystis sp. Similarly, in 2003, there were two blooms, an early one dominated by Thalassiosira spp., and a later one consisting of Chaetoceros spp. and Thalassiosira spp. Clearance rates on individual prey species, as calculated by cell counts, showed that C. pacificus are highly selective in their feeding, and may have much higher clearance rates on individual taxa than rates calculated from bulk chlorophyll disappearance. During weeks of high phytoplankton concentration, the copepods generally ate phytoplankton. However, they often rejected the most abundant phytoplankton species, particularly certain Thalassiosira spp., even though the rejected prey were often of the same genus and similar size to the preferred prey. It is speculated that this avoidance may be related to the possible deleterious effects that certain of these diatom species have on the reproductive success of these copepods. During weeks of medium to low phytoplankton concentration, the copepods selectively ate certain species of phytoplankton, and often had high electivity for microzooplankton. The selection mechanism must consist of active particle rejection most likely based on detection of surface chemical properties, since the diatoms that were selected were of the same genus, nearly the same size, and at lower numerical abundance than those cells that were avoided. The grazing choices made by these copepods may have important consequences for the overall ecosystem function within coastal and estuarine systems through changes in the transfer efficiency of energy to higher trophic levels.     

Copepod grazing during spring blooms: Can Pseudocalanus newmani induce trophic cascades?

During late winter and spring of 2002 and 2003, 24 two- to three-day cruises were conducted to Dabob Bay, Washington State, USA, to examine the grazing, egg production, and hatching success rates of adult female Calanus pacificus and Pseudocalanus newmani. Here, we discuss the results of our grazing experiments for P. newmani. Each week, we conducted traditional microzooplankton dilution experiments and “copepod dilution” experiments, each from two different layers. Grazing was measured by changes in chlorophyll concentration and direct cell counts. Clearance rates on individual prey species, as calculated by cell counts, showed that Pseudocalanus are highly selective in their feeding, and may have much higher grazing rates on individual taxa than calculated from bulk chlorophyll disappearance. The grazing rates of the copepods, however, are typically an order of magnitude lower than the grazing rates of the microzooplankton community, or the growth rates of the phytoplankton. P. newmani ingested diatoms, but, at certain times fed preferentially on microzooplankton, such as ciliates, tintinnids, and larger dinoflagellates. Removal of the microzooplankton may have released the other phytoplankton species from grazing pressure, allowing those species’ abundance to increase, which was measured as an apparent “negative” grazing on those phytoplankton species. The net result of grazing on some phytoplankton species, while simultaneously releasing others from grazing pressure resulted in bulk chlorophyll-derived estimates of grazing which were essentially zero or slightly negative; thus bulk chlorophyll disappearance is a poor indicator of copepod grazing. Whether copepods can significantly release phytoplankton from the grazing pressure by microzooplankton in situ, thus causing a trophic cascade, remains to be verified, but is suggested by our study.     

The fate of dumped sediments monitored by a high-resolution multibeam echosounder system,Weser Estuary,German Bight

With the development of high-resolution multibeam echosounder systems (MBES) for surveying shallow-water areas a new tool is available to monitor rapid changes in seabed morphology as, e.g., caused by the dumping of dredge spoil in coastal waters. In this study, four data sets of repeated bathymetric surveys with a MBES were processed and analyzed. The data were collected in a 1.94-km² dumping site in the outer Weser Estuary (German Bight). Between June and December 1998, 2.6 million m³ of dredged sediment were deposited there. The bathymetric maps generated in the course of this study reveal features such as subaqueous dunes, scour holes, and mounds of dumped dredge spoil. The mean water depth decreased by about 1 m during the dumping period. Furthermore, difference grids showing changes in sediment volume allowed a calculation of the sediment budget for the monitored area. After a time period of only 5 months, 0.5 million m³ of the originally dumped 2.6 million m³ of dredge spoil had already been removed from the dumping site.     

Moisture source for the Amazon Basin: a study of contrasting years

The regions where the divergence of vertically integrated water vapor flux, averaged over a season or a year, is positive (negative) are sources (sinks) of moisture for the atmosphere. An aerial river is defined as a stream of strong water vapor flux connecting a source and a sink. Moisture flux, its divergence, and sources and sinks over the tropics of South and Central America and the adjoining Atlantic Ocean are obtained for dry years and for wet years in the Amazon Basin. Results show that the Amazon Basin is a sink region for atmospheric moisture in all seasons and that there are two source regions for the moisture in the basin, one situated in the South Atlantic and the other in the North Atlantic, both located equator-ward of the respective subtropical high-pressure centers. The convergence of moisture increases over the Amazon Basin in austral summer, and at the same time it decreases in the Pacific and Atlantic ITCZs. Box model calculations reveal that the wet years, on the average, present about 55 % more moisture convergence than the dry years in the Amazon Basin. A reduction in the moisture inflow across the eastern and northern boundaries of the basin (at 45°W and at the Equator, respectively) and an increase in the outflow across the southern boundary (at 15°S) lead to dry conditions. The annual mean contribution of moisture convergence to the precipitation over the Amazon Basin is estimated to be 70 %. In the dry years, it lowers to around 50 %. The net convergence of water vapor flux over the basin is a good indicator of the wet or dry condition.     

The influence of a mature cyclonic eddy on particle export in the lee of Hawaii

Mesoscale eddies may enhance primary production (PP) in the open ocean by bringing nutrient-rich deep waters into the euphotic zone, potentially leading to increased transport of particles to depth. This hypothesis remains controversial, however, due to a paucity of direct particle export measurements. In this study, we investigated particle dynamics using ²³⁴Th–²³⁸U disequilibria within a mesoscale cold-core eddy, Cyclone Opal, which formed in the lee of the Hawaiian Islands. ²³⁴Th samples were collected along two transects across Cyclone Opal as well as during a time-series within the eddy core during a decaying diatom bloom. Particulate carbon (PC), particulate nitrogen (PN) and biogenic silica (bSiO₂) fluxes at 150 m varied spatially and temporally within the eddy and strongly depended on the ²³⁴Th model formulation used (e.g., steady state versus non-steady state, inclusion of upwelling, etc.). Particle fluxes estimated from a steady state model assuming an upwelling rate of 2 m day⁻¹ yielded the best fit to sediment-trap data. These ²³⁴Th-derived particle fluxes ranged from 332±14 to 1719±53 μmol C m⁻² day⁻¹, 27±3 to 114±12 μmol N m⁻² day⁻¹, and 33±20 to 309±73 μmol Si m⁻² day⁻¹. Although PP rates within Cyclone Opal were elevated by a factor of 2–3, PC and PN fluxes were the same, within error, inside and outside of Cyclone Opal. The ratio of PC export to PP remained surprisingly low at <0.03 and similar to those measured in surrounding waters. In contrast, bSiO₂ fluxes within the eddy core were three times higher. Detailed analyses of ²³⁴Th depth profiles consistently showed excess ²³⁴Th at 100–175 m, associated with the remineralization and possible accumulation of suspended and dissolved organic matter from the surface. We suggest that strong microzooplankton grazing facilitated particulate organic matter recycling and resulted in the export of empty diatom frustules. Thus, while eddies may increase PP, they do not necessarily increase PC and PN export to deep waters. This may be a general characteristic of wind-driven cyclonic eddies of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre and suggests that eddies may preferentially act as a silica pump, thereby playing an important role in promoting silicic-acid limitation in the region.     

Tectono-sequence stratigraphy and U–Pb zircon ages of the Rincón Blanco Depocenter,northern Cuyo Rift,Argentina

Extensional processes that followed the Gondwanan Orogeny rise to the development of a series of rift basins along the continental margin over older accreted Eopaleozoic terranes. Stratigraphic, structural, paleontological, and isotopic studies are presented in this work in order to constrain the ages of the sedimentary infilling and to analyze the tectosedimentary evolution of one of the Cuyo basin depocenters, known as Rincón Blanco. This asymmetrical half-graben was filled by continental sediments under a strong tectonic control. The infilling was strongly controlled by tectonics which in term produced distinctive features along the whole sedimentary sequence. Using a combination of lithological and structural data the infilling was subdivided into packages of genetically linked units bounded by regional extended surfaces. Several tuffs and acid volcanic rocks have been collected across the whole section of the Rincon Blanco sub-basin for SHRIMP and LA-MC-ICPMS U–Pb zircon dating. The ages obtained range from 246.4 ± 1.1 Ma to 230.3 ± 1.5 Ma which is the time elapsed for the deposition of three tectono-sequence units separated by regional unconformities and mainly constrained to the Middle Triassic. They are interpreted as a result of a reactivation of the extensional system that has evolved along strike as segments of faults that linked together and/or as laterally propagating faults. Regional correlation with coeval rift basins permits to establish north-south propagation in the extensional regime along the western margin of SW Gondwana. This trending started in the lowermost Triassic and extended until the latest Triassic. Two of them were precisely correlated with Cerro Puntudo and Cacheuta half-graben systems. The new data indicate that the three sequences were mostly deposited during the Middle Triassic (246 to 230 Ma), with no evidence of sedimentation during Norian and Rhaetian, which is in conflict with some previous biostratigraphic studies.