Stable carbon isotope ratios in lake and swamp sediments as a proxy for prehistoric forest clearance and crop cultivation in the Neotropics

Close correspondence between stable carbon isotope ratios ( ¹³ C), pollen, and charcoal profiles in sediment cores from Laguna Zoncho and Machita swamp, Costa Rica, shows that prehistoric forest clearance and crop cultivation can be detected in the stable carbon isotope ratios of total organic carbon ( ¹3C _TOC ). Analyses of δ 13C _TOC complement evidence from pollen, charcoal, and phytoliths and provide a proxy that is sensitive to the intensity and/or proximity to core sites of prehistoric forest clearance and agriculture in watersheds. Stable carbon isotope analyses are particularly useful in situations in which other evidence of forest clearance and agriculture is limited.     

The impact of overfishing and El Niño on the condition factor and reproductive success of Peruvian hake, Merluccius gayi peruanus

In this study we examine physiological responses of Peruvian hake (Merluccius gayi peruanus) to changes in their population structure and physical environment during the period 1971–2004. In particular, we assess the relative investment of energy in growth and/or reproduction of small (20–35 cm) and large (35–50 cm) hake. We calculated the (i) condition (Fulton’s K), (ii) gonad and (iii) gut fullness indices for 42,761 female hakes sampled from commercial landings; these indices indicate fish somatic, reproductive and feeding condition, respectively. Using Generalized Additive Models we then examined potential relationships between these indices and sea surface temperature anomalies and date. Drastic energy exhaustion and a decrease in female hake fecundity were observed during El Niño events. The long-term trend showed a general increase in condition factor and a decrease in gonad index for large hake between 1971 and 2004. Small hake exhibited a different trend with an increase in reproductive activity, which was accompanied by an earlier maturation. We hypothesise that the observed low investment of energy in reproduction by large female hake might be related to the lack of large males, due to a sex-selective fishery and the impact of El Niño. We suggest that fishing diminished hake reproductive capacity, modified the sex ratio in favour of females and increased population vulnerability to environmental stress, in particular to the El Niño. The impact of multidecadal variability and predators like the squid, Dosidicus gigas, remain unresolved until longer time series become available.     

The 1631 Vesuvius eruption. A reconstruction based on historical and stratigraphical data

The eruption of 1631 A.D. was the most violent and destructive event in the recent history of Vesuvius. More than fifty primary documents, written in either Italian or Latin, were critically examined, with preference given to the authors who eyewitnessed volcanic phenomena. The eruption started at 7 a.m. on December 16 with the formation of an eruptive column and was followed by block and lapilli fallout east and northeast of the volcano until 6 p.m. of the same day. At 10 a.m. on December 17, several nuées ardentes were observed to issue from the central crater, rapidly descending the flanks of the cone and devastating the villages at the foot of Vesuvius. In the night between the 16th and 17th and on the afternoon of the 17th, extensive lahars and floods, resulting from rainstorms, struck the radial valleys of the volcano as well as the plain north and northeast.Deposits of the eruption were identified in about 70 localities on top of an ubiquitous paleosol formed during a long preeruptive volcanic quiescence. The main tephra unit consists of a plinian fallout composed of moderately vesicular dark green lapilli, crystals and lithics. Isopachs of the fallout are elongated eastwards and permit a conservative volume calculation of 0.07 km³. The peak mass flux deduced from clast dispersal models is estimated in the range 3–6 × 10⁷ kg/s, corresponding to a column height of 17–21 km. East of the volcano the plinian fallout is overlain by ash-rich low-grade ignimbrite, surges, phreatomagmatic ashes and mud flows. Ash flows occur in paleovalleys around the cone of Vesuvius but are lacking on the Somma side, suggesting that pyroclastic flows had not enough energy to overpass the caldera wall of Mt. Somma. Deposits are generally unconsolidated, massive with virtually no ground layer and occasionally bearing sparse rests of charred vegetation. Past interpretations of the products emitted on the morning of December 17 as lava flows are inconsistent with both field observations and historical data. Features of the final phreatomagmatic ashes are suggestive of alternating episodes of wet ash fallout and rainfalls. Lahars interfingered with primary ash fallout confirm episodes of massive remobilization of loose tephra by heavy rainfalls during the final stage of the eruption.Chemical analyses of scoria clasts suggest tapping of magma from a compositionally zoned reservoir. Leucite-bearing, tephritic-phonolite (SiO₂ 51.17%) erupted in the early plinian phase was in fact followed by darker and slightly more mafic magma richer in crystals (SiO₂ 49.36%). During the nuées ardentes phase the composition returned to that of the early phase of the eruption.The reconstruction of the 1631 eruptive scenario supplies new perspectives on the hazards related to plinian eruptions of Vesuvius.     

Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations,and an update on the latest model simulations

We review the ideas behind the pattern scaling technique, and focus on its value and limitations given its use for impact assessment and within integrated assessment models. We present estimates of patterns for temperature and precipitation change from the latest transient simulations available from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), focusing on multi-model mean patterns, and characterizing the sources of variability of these patterns across models and scenarios. The patterns are compared to those obtained from the previous set of experiments, under CMIP3. We estimate the significance of the emerging differences between CMIP3 and CMIP5 results through a bootstrap exercise, while also taking into account the fundamental differences in scenario and model ensemble composition. All in all, the robustness of the geographical features in patterns of temperature and precipitation, when computed as multi-model means, is confirmed by this comparison. The intensity of the change (in both the warmer and cooler areas with respect to global temperature change, and the drier and wetter regions) is overall heightened per degree of global warming in the ensemble mean of the new simulations. The presence of stabilized scenarios in the new set of simulations allows investigation of the performance of the technique once the system has gotten close to equilibrium. Overall, the well established validity of the technique in approximating the forced signal of change under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is confirmed.     

A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

Spatial and Temporal Variations in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pyrodinium bahamense</Emphasis> Cyst Concentrations in the Sediments of Bioluminescent Mangrove Lagoon,St. Croix,USVI

Mangrove Lagoon, located on the island of St. Croix, US Virgin Islands (USVI), is one of few actively bioluminescent lagoons in a location experiencing significant anthropogenic impacts. The bioluminescence is due to an abundance of the dinoflagellate Pyrodinium bahamense in the water column. We recovered surface sediments and sediment cores from Mangrove Lagoon to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal variability of P. bahamense cysts in this system. Surface sediment P. bahamense cyst concentrations ranged from 0 to 466 cysts g^?1 dry sediment, with higher abundances associated with elevated surface water nutrient concentrations and a mixed terrestrial–marine organic matter source regime. In combination with available bioassay data, we hypothesize that phytoplankton utilize nutrients rapidly and subsequent decay of organic matter makes nutrients available for dinoflagellates at the sediment–water interface in the eastern and northern quadrants of the lagoon. However, the nutrients are rapidly exhausted during counterclockwise lagoon circulation resulting in the decline of primary productivity and dinoflagellate abundance in the western quadrants. Downcore profiles suggest that P. bahamense blooms have been occurring for decades, declining in recent years. No cysts were present in sediments predating dredging activities of the 1960s that created Mangrove Lagoon. Recent reductions in cyst abundance may be the result of limited primary productivity caused by restricted water exchange with Salt River Bay due to shallowing of a sill at the mouth of the lagoon. This research highlights the need for more comprehensive geochemical and fossil analyses to better understand long-term ecological variability and inform conservation efforts of these unique habitats.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

Scleractinian cold-water corals in the Gulf of Cádiz—First clues about their spatial and temporal distribution

This paper presents the first compilation of information on the spatial distribution of scleractinian cold-water corals in the Gulf of Cádiz based on literature research and own observations (video footage, sediment samples). Scleractinian cold-water corals are widely distributed along the Spanish and Moroccan margins in the Gulf of Cádiz, where they are mainly associated with mud volcanoes, diapiric ridges, steep fault escarpments, and coral mounds. Dendrophyllia cornigera, Dendrophyllia alternata, Eguchipsammia cornucopia, Madrepora oculata and Lophelia pertusa are the most abundant reef-forming species. Today, they are almost solely present as isolated patches of fossil coral and coral rubble. The absence of living scleractinian corals is likely related to a reduced food supply caused by low productivity and diminished tidal effects. In contrast, during the past 48 kyr scleractinian corals were abundant in the Gulf of Cádiz, although their occurrence demonstrates no relationship with main climatic or oceanographic changes. Nevertheless, there exists a conspicuous relationship when the main species are considered separately. Dendrophylliids are associated with periods of relatively stable and warm conditions. The occurrence of L. pertusa mainly clusters within the last glacial when bottom current strength in the Gulf of Cádiz was enhanced and long-term stable conditions existed in terms of temperature. Madrepora oculata shows a higher tolerance to abrupt environmental changes.