Comparison of extended medium-range forecast skill between KMA ensemble,ocean coupled ensemble,and GloSea5

This article describes a three way inter-comparison of forecast skill on an extended medium-range time scale using the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) operational ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems (i.e., atmosphere-only global ensemble prediction system (EPSG) and ocean-atmosphere coupledEPSG) and KMA operational seasonal prediction system, the Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). The main motivation is to investigate whether the ensemble NWP system can provide advantage over the existing seasonal prediction system for the extended medium-range forecast (30 days) even with putting extra resources in extended integration or coupling with ocean with NWP system. Two types of evaluation statistics are examined: the basic verification statistics - the anomaly correlation and RMSE of 500-hPa geopotential height and 1.5-meter surface temperature for the global and East Asia area, and the other is the Real-time Multivariate Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) indices (RMM1 and RMM2) - which is used to examine the MJO prediction skill. The MJO is regarded as a main source of forecast skill in the tropics linked to the mid-latitude weather on monthly time scale. Under limited number of experiment cases, the coupled NWP extends the forecast skill of the NWP by a few more days, and thereafter such forecast skill is overtaken by that of the seasonal prediction system. At present stage, it seems there is little gain from the coupled NWP even though more resources are put into it. Considering this, the best combination of numerical product guidance for operational forecasters for an extended medium-range is extension of the forecast lead time of the current ensemble NWP (EPSG) up to 20 days and use of the seasonal prediction system (GloSea5) forecast thereafter, though there exists a matter of consistency between the two systems.     

The development of a non-linear autoregressive model with exogenous input (NARX) to model climate-water clarity relationships: reconstructing a historical water clarity index for the coastal waters of the southeastern USA

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The coastal waters of the southeastern USA contain important protected habitats and natural resources that are vulnerable to climate variability and singular...     

Temperature change and macroinvertebrate biodiversity: assessments of organism vulnerability and potential distributions

Peninsular environments are ecosystems that are one of the most vulnerable to global warming. Despite the importance of conserving regional biodiversity, peninsular environments are among the least studied with respect to the influences of global warming. In this study, we used data on benthic macroinvertebrate communities from 521 sites across Korea (a nationwide scale) to evaluate the potential impact of temperature increases on river ecosystems. Weighted averaging regression models (WARMs) were used to project the relationships between relative macroinvertebrate abundance and water temperature, based on the temperature data of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Maximum tolerance water temperatures were used to quantify the risks to macroinvertebrates at the catchment and national scales. Ambient air temperatures in the 2090s were projected to increase by an average of 3.4?ºC relative to the baseline of the 2000s at the national scale. Mayflies, stoneflies and caddisflies were identified as potentially the most sensitive taxa to global warming. The impact of global warming on macroinvertebrates was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species loss was predicted to be 55 %. Potential distribution ranges of cold water species in the future decades were expected to decrease continuously over time, while those of warm species were expected to increase from the 2000s to the 2040s and then decrease until the 2080s. Our projections may be useful for understanding how climate parameters affect the biogeographical patterns of aquatic biodiversity from a thermal-preference perspective.     

Impact of 3-D topography on surface radiation budget over the Tibetan Plateau

The 3-D complex topography effect on the surface solar radiative budget over the Tibetan Plateau is investigated by means of a parameterization approach on the basis of “exact” 3-D Monte Carlo photon tracing simulations, which use 90 m topography data as building blocks. Using a demonstrative grid size of 10?×?10 km², we show that differences in downward surface solar fluxes for a clear sky without aerosols between the 3-D model and the conventional plane-parallel radiative transfer scheme are substantial, on the order of 200 W/m² at shaded or sunward slopes. Deviations in the reflected fluxes of the direct solar beam amount to about +100 W/m² over snow-covered areas, which would lead to an enhanced snowmelt if the 3-D topography effects had been accounted for in current climate models. We further demonstrate that the entire Tibetan Plateau would receive more solar flux by about 14 W/m², if its 3-D mountain structure was included in the calculations, which would result in larger sensible and latent heat transfer from the surface to the atmosphere.     

Changes in future precipitation over South Korea using a global high-resolution climate model

We used daily precipitation data from a global high-resolution climate scenario to analyze the features of future precipitation including extreme and heavy rainfall. The scenario shows that the model reproduces the daily precipitation over South Korea well. The projections show an increase in annual precipitation of approximately 18% in the late 21st century, with the highest increase (38%) occurring in winter. The number of days with daily precipitation of less than 5 mm decreases, but that of daily precipitation of more than 5 mm increases slightly in the latter part of the 21st century. The peak of precipitation days shifted from July to August. The number of days with relatively small amounts of precipitation (10 and 30 mm d^?1) increases most substantially in the winter season, but that for large amounts of precipitation (50, 80, 100, and 130 mm d^?1) increases most in the summer season. Events with heavy precipitation rates of 100 and 130 mm d^?1 are expected to occur in the winter season in the late 21st century, although no such events occurred during the winter season in the reference period.     

Sensitivity analysis of the Ångstrom exponent for multimodal aerosol size distributions

This study characterizes the Ångstrom exponent for polydispersed aerosol size distributions. Under the assumption of a lognormal size distribution, the dependence of Ångstrom exponent on the size distribution and the refractive index with varying real and imaginary parts are determined. Further, the influence of coarse mode particles on the Ångstrom exponent is investigated quantitatively. The results show that the nuclei mode has less influence under the simulation conditions considered in this study. It is also shown that the refractive index is an important factor influencing the Ångstrom exponent. The effect of the coarse mode on the Ångstrom exponent computed with different aerosol number concentrations and as a function of a geometric standard deviation and a geometric mean diameter is tested. It is shown that the coarse mode is crucial for determining the Ångstrom exponent.     

A regional climate change simulation over East Asia

In this study, regional climate changes for seventy years (1980–2049) over East Asia and the Korean Peninsula are investigated using the Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario via a high-resolution regional climate model, and the impact of global warming on extreme climate events over the study area is investigated. According to future climate predictions for East Asia, the annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.8°C and precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day^?1 (2030–2049). The maximum wind intensity of tropical cyclones increases in the high wind categories, and the intra-seasonal variation of tropical cyclone occurrence changes in the western North Pacific. The predicted increase in surface air temperature results from increased longwave radiations at the surface. The predicted decrease in precipitation is caused primarily by northward shift of the monsoon rain-band due to the intensified subtropical high. In the nested higher-resolution (20 km) simulation over the Korean Peninsula, annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C and annual mean precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day^?1. Future surface air temperature over the Korean Peninsula increases in all seasons due to surface temperature warming, which leads to changes in the length of the four seasons. Future total precipitation over the Korean Peninsula is decreased, but the intensity and occurrence of heavy precipitation events increases. The regional climate changes information from this study can be used as a fruitful reference in climate change studies over East Asia and the Korean peninsula.     

Urban impacts on precipitation

Weather and climate changes caused by human activities (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and urbanization) have received much attention because of their impacts on human lives as well as scientific interests. The detection, understanding, and future projection of weather and climate changes due to urbanization are important subjects in the discipline of urban meteorology and climatology. This article reviews urban impacts on precipitation. Observational studies of changes in convective phenomena over and around cities are reviewed, with focus on precipitation enhancement downwind of cities. The proposed causative factors (urban heat island, large surface roughness, and higher aerosol concentration) and mechanisms of urban-induced and/or urban-modified precipitation are then reviewed and discussed, with focus on downwind precipitation enhancement. A universal mechanism of urban-induced precipitation is made through a thorough literature review and is as follows. The urban heat island produces updrafts on the leeward or downwind side of cities, and the urban heat island-induced updrafts initiate moist convection under favorable thermodynamic conditions, thus leading to surface precipitation. Surface precipitation is likely to further increase under higher aerosol concentrations if the air humidity is high and deep and strong convection occurs. It is not likely that larger urban surface roughness plays a major role in urbaninduced precipitation. Larger urban surface roughness can, however, disrupt or bifurcate precipitating convective systems formed outside cities while passing over the cities. Such urban-modified precipitating systems can either increase or decrease precipitation over and/or downwind of cities. Much effort is needed for in-depth or new understanding of urban precipitation anomalies, which includes local and regional modeling studies using advanced numerical models and analysis studies of long-term radar data.     

The comparison of two severe Hwangsa (Asian dust) cases of spring and winter in Seoul, Korea

This study investigated meteorological, physical, and chemical characteristics of 2 severe Hwangsa (Asian dust, maximum average of PM₁₀ above 1000 μg m^?3) observed in Seoul, the capital city of Korea, during 30～31^st May, 2008 (DSS2008) and 25～26^th December, 2009 (DSS2009). DSS2008 and DSS2009 had a same source region and route. However, they have different meteorological conditions. DSS2009 had a shorter travel time from the source region to Korea and shorter duration time in Korea than DSS2008 due to a strong winter Siberian anticyclone. One of DSS2008 sample was affected by not only Asian dust but also a long-range transported haze due to consecutive influx after low pressure passed while DSS2009 sample collected only dust aerosol. For both cases, the mass concentration of coarse particles (PM_10-1) increased by 3～14 times compared to that during non Asian dust period, however, that of fine particles (PM₁) increased only in DSS2008. For DSS2008 water-soluble ion balance between anions and cations in fine mode was close to 1:1 while cations were higher than anions in coarse mode. NH₄ ⁺ and Ca²⁺ were found to be the main contributing factors for the neutralization. Cl^? loss was observed about 60% indicating an active interaction of Na⁺ with pollutants. Reconstruction of chemical compositions showed relatively high concentrations of secondary pollutants (NH₄NO₃ and (NH₄)₂SO₄), CaCO₃, and Ca(NO₃)₂ compared to that during non Asian dust period. DSS2009 exhibited the typical characteristics of Asian dust having a high concentration of Ca²⁺ with higher equivalent concentration of cations than anions in all size bins. Cl^? loss was hardly observed. The secondary pollutants were lower than that of non Asian dust cases. The result of reconstruction of ionic components indicated the CaCO₃ derived from soil particle, CaSO₄, and Ca (NO₃)₂ were dominant in DSS2009.