Weak and strong constraint data assimilation in the inverse Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Development and application for a baroclinic coastal upwelling system

We describe the development and preliminary application of the inverse Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), a four dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system for high-resolution basin-wide and coastal oceanic flows. Inverse ROMS makes use of the recently developed perturbation tangent linear (TL), representer tangent linear (RP) and adjoint (AD) models to implement an indirect representer-based generalized inverse modeling system. This modeling framework is modular. The TL, RP and AD models are used as stand-alone sub-models within the Inverse Ocean Modeling (IOM) system described in [Chua, B.S., Bennett, A.F., 2001. An inverse ocean modeling system. Ocean Modell. 3, 137–165.]. The system allows the assimilation of a wide range of observation types and uses an iterative algorithm to solve nonlinear assimilation problems. The assimilation is performed either under the perfect model assumption (strong constraint) or by also allowing for errors in the model dynamics (weak constraints). For the weak constraint case the TL and RP models are modified to include additional forcing terms on the right hand side of the model equations. These terms are needed to account for errors in the model dynamics.Inverse ROMS is tested in a realistic 3D baroclinic upwelling system with complex bottom topography, characterized by strong mesoscale eddy variability. We assimilate synthetic data for upper ocean (0–450 m) temperatures and currents over a period of 10 days using both a high resolution and a spatially and temporally aliased sampling array. During the assimilation period the flow field undergoes substantial changes from the initial state. This allows the inverse solution to extract the dynamically active information from the synthetic observations and improve the trajectory of the model state beyond the assimilation window. Both the strong and weak constraint assimilation experiments show forecast skill greater than persistence and climatology during the 10–20 days after the last observation is assimilated.Further investigation in the functional form of the model error covariance and in the use of the representer tangent linear model may lead to improvement in the forecast skill.     

River Discharge and Water Level Changes in the Mekong River: Droughts in an Era of Mega-Dams

While 1992 marked the first major dam – Manwan – on the main stem of the Mekong River, the post-2010 era has seen the construction and operationalisation of mega dams such as Xiaowan (started operations in 2010) and Nuozhadu (started operations in 2014) that were much larger than any dams built before. The scale of these projects implies that their operations will likely have significant ecological and hydrological impacts from the Upper Mekong Basin to the Vietnamese Delta and beyond. Historical water level and water discharge data from 1960 to 2020 were analysed to examine the changes to streamflow conditions across three time periods: 1960–1991 (pre-dam), 1992–2009 (growth) and 2010–2020 (mega-dam). At Chiang Saen, the nearest station to the China border, monthly water discharge in the mega-dam period has increased by up to 98% during the dry season and decreased up as much as −35% during the wet season when compared to pre-dam records. Similarly, monthly water levels also rose by up to +1.16 m during the dry season and dropped by up to −1.55 m during the wet season. This pattern of hydrological alterations is observed further downstream to at least Stung Treng (Cambodia) in our study, showing that Mekong streamflow characteristics have shifted substantially in the post-2010 era. In light of such changes, the 2019–2020 drought – the most severe one in the recent history in the Lower Mekong Basin – was a consequent of constructed dams reducing the amount of water during the wet season. This reduction of water was exacerbated by the decreased monsoon precipitation in 2019. Concurrently, the untimely operationalisation of the newly opened Xayaburi dam in Laos coincided with the peak of the 2019–2020 drought and could have aggravated the dry conditions downstream. Thus, the mega-dam era (post-2010) may signal the start of a new normal of wet-season droughts.     

Marine Pollution Prevention and Management in the East Asian Seas: A Paradigm Shift in Concept, Approach and Methodology

A brief analysis of the current situation pertaining to marine pollution prevention and management in the East Asian Seas is outlined, particularly focusing on pollution arising from both land and sea-based sources. This paper highlights the results of a Regional Programme supported by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) in addressing some of the key marine pollution management problems of the region. The Programme has made significant progress in the following areas: (a) successfully developed and tested working models on the application of integrated coastal management (ICM) in addressing land-based sources of pollution; (b) tested risk assessment and risk management methodologies for addressing pollution in the Straits of Malacca; (c) attained commendable records in the ratification of marine pollution-related conventions; (d) developed an operational modality for stronger public and private sector partnerships; (e) demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of marine pollution monitoring programs; (f) focused on capacity building at the local level, and (g) with the above achievements, it has illustrated a paradigm shift in concept, approach and methodology in addressing the mounting environmental pressure caused by increasing marine pollution loads.     

A novel adsorption-anaerobiosis column for the removal of persistent organics from contaminated water

A novel adsorption-anaerobiosis column (AAC) system was used to treat persistent organics, namely neopentanoic acid (NPA, at 0.5 g l⁻¹) and 2-ethylhexanoic acid (EHA, at 1.0 g l⁻¹), in contaminated water. The fire-expanded clay pellets that were used to pack the column served as an adsorbent for organic contaminants and as a carrier for anaerobic biofilm immobilization. The AAC system could remove 75% of the NPA and 98% of the EHA at a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 2 days. The system could recover from a shock load equivalent to a 150% increase in hydraulic and organic loads, caused by a sudden decrease of HRT from 5 to 2 days.     

Regression method for estimating rainfall recharge at unconfined sandy aquifers with an equatorial climate

A reliable estimate of rainfall recharge is essential for groundwater system managements. This study develops a method based on regression equations for estimating rainfall recharge at unconfined sandy aquifers with an equatorial climate. The developed method (GR-I method) is generally efficient for estimating long-term regional recharge, as the computational procedures could be formulated and executed easily using Microsoft's Excel spreadsheet. More importantly, its application could be extended to sand textures different from the sand texture used in developing the regression equations. To evaluate its reliability, the method was applied to estimate monthly gross recharge percentages at the Changi reclaimed land. When ignoring the effect of rainfall clusters, the GR-I method was found to underestimate the monthly gross recharge percentages for those months with high monthly rainfall depths. By integrating the effect of rainfall clusters, the GR-I method yields reliable estimates of monthly gross recharge percentages. By including daily potential evaporation as an additional input variable, the Extended GR-I method was found to be not superior to the GR-I method, implying that soil moisture availability is the major governing factor for actual soil evaporation in the highly porous sand medium, instead of atmospheric demand represented by the potential evaporation rate. Using the GR-I method, the mean annual net recharge percentage of the study site was found to fall between 56·9 and 69·9%, which corresponds to a net recharge depth of 1073·8–1745·8 mm. Although the developed method provides a good alternative to other widely used methods, its recharge estimates still needs to be collaborated with estimates from other methods, as multiple techniques are highly recommended in any groundwater recharge estimations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling hourly and daily open‐water evaporation rates in areas with an equatorial climate

Evaporation rate estimation is important for water resource studies. Previous studies have shown that the radiation‐based models, mass transfer models, temperature‐based models and artificial neural network (ANN) models generally perform well for areas with a temperate climate. This study evaluates the applicability of these models in estimating hourly and daily evaporation rates for an area with an equatorial climate. Unlike in temperate regions, solar radiation was found to correlate best with pan evaporation on both the hourly and daily time‐scales. Relative humidity becomes a significant factor on a daily time‐scale. Among the simplified models, only the radiation‐based models were found to be applicable for modelling the hourly and daily evaporations. ANN models are generally more accurate than the simplified models if an appropriate network architecture is selected and a sufficient number of data points are used for training the network. ANN modelling becomes more relevant when both the energy‐ and aerodynamics‐driven mechanisms dominate, as the radiation and the mass transfer models are incapable of producing reliable evaporation estimates under this circumstance. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geospace imaging using Thomson scattering

We evaluate the potential of imaging for the first time, the near-earth space plasma environment seamlessly from the ionosphere through the magnetosphere by remotely sensing Thomson scattering of solar visible light by geospace electrons. Using state of the art first principles models of the magnetosphere/ionosphere system, we show that the column emission rates are weak, generally less than 10 Rayleighs, but detectable with currently available instrument technology recently deployed for heliospheric imaging. We demonstrate that distinct features such as the bow shock, magnetosheath and magnetopause are detectable in synthetic images simulated using modified solar coronagraphs and white light imagers, providing that the large background signals are properly quantified. The availability of global geospace images of the electron concentration will enable major advances in our understanding of how Earth's near-space environment responds as a coupled system to changing solar forcings. Such images are expected to play a central role in space weather assessment and forecasting, from which significant capabilities will accrue, much as the imaging of the Earth's surface and lower atmosphere has advanced understanding and forecasting of tropospheric weather.     

湘鄂地区晚寒武世末至早奥陶世特马豆克期层序地层与岩相古地理

从寒武纪末至早奥陶世特马豆克期（牙形类Cordylodus intermedius 带至Serratognathus 带）,地处扬子陆块的湘鄂地区分为三个沉积区：浅水碳酸盐台地、台地东南缘碳酸盐岩、泥质岩混合沉积区和较深水细碎屑岩沉积区。前二个沉积区的层序地层分为4个正层序,在同一陆块内不同沉积区这四个三级层序相互可对比,代表了四次三级海侵、海退旋回。其中牙形类Paltodus deltifer 带中、下部是特马豆克期最大的海侵时期。特马豆克早期（Glyptoconus quadraplicatus 带）和晚期（Serratognathus带中、上部）分别发生过大的海退事件。各正层序的体系域岩相古地理格局能更客观地反映该地区特马豆克期古地理演化特征。特马豆克初期（C.lindstromi 带至C.angulatus带下部）自鄂西北至湘中地区依次为潮坪、潮间泻湖白云岩相、开阔碳酸盐台地、台地边缘浅滩、碳酸盐岩台地边缘斜坡、黑色碳质页岩盆地的古地理格局。特马豆克早期（Glyptoconus quadraplicatus 带）缓慢海退时期海水普遍变浅,自北向南依次为潮坪、潮间泻湖白云岩相、局限台地相、台地边缘浅滩相和较深水碳酸盐外陆架。特马豆克中期海进时期,生屑灰岩和页岩沉积向北超覆,扩展至青峰襄广断裂。湘鄂浅水碳酸盐沉积区为开阔碳酸盐台地,混合沉积区为较深水碳酸盐外陆架,湘中地区为深水泥质下外陆架。特马豆克晚期缓慢海退时期海水再度变浅,在湖北、湘西北开阔碳酸盐台地上,出现台内生屑浅滩、台地边缘生屑浅滩,浅滩上发育有海绵、苔藓虫礁丘。