Mantle dynamics beneath Greece from SKS and PKS seismic anisotropy study

SKS and PKS splitting parameters were determined in the broader Greek region using data from 45 stations of the Hellenic Unified Seismological Network and the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, utilizing teleseismic events that occurred between 2010 and 2017. Data were processed for shear-wave splitting with the Minimum Energy Method that was considered the optimal. The results generally confirm the existence of anisotropic zonation in the Hellenic subduction system, with alternating trench-normal and trench-parallel directions. The zonation is attributed to the upper and lower olivine fabric layers that can, potentially, be present in the subduction zone. At the edges of this zone, two possible toroidal flow cases have been identified, implying the existence of tears that allow the inflow of asthenospheric material in the mantle wedge. The high number of null measurements in the KZN and XOR stations indicates a possible anisotropic transition zone between the fore-arc and back-arc areas. SKS and PKS splitting results are jointly interpreted, given that they yield similar values in most cases.     

Earthquake recurrence models and occurrence probabilities of strong earthquakes in the North Aegean Trough (Greece)

The determination of strong earthquakes’ recurrence time above a predefined magnitude, associated with specific fault segments, is an important component of seismic hazard assessment. The occurrence of these earthquakes is neither periodic nor completely random but often clustered in time. This fact in connection with their limited number, due to shortage of the available catalogs, inhibits a deterministic approach for recurrence time calculation, and for this reason, application of stochastic processes is required. In this study, recurrence time determination in the area of North Aegean Trough (NAT) is developed by the application of time-dependent stochastic models, introducing an elastic rebound motivated concept for individual fault segments located in the study area. For this purpose, all the available information on strong earthquakes (historical and instrumental) with M_w ≥ 6.5 is compiled and examined for magnitude completeness. Two possible starting dates of the catalog are assumed with the same magnitude threshold, M_w ≥ 6.5 and divided into five data sets, according to a new segmentation model for the study area. Three Brownian Passage Time (BPT) models with different levels of aperiodicity are applied and evaluated with the Anderson–Darling test for each segment in both catalog data where possible. The preferable models are then used in order to estimate the occurrence probabilities of M_w ≥ 6.5 shocks on each segment of NAT for the next 10, 20, and 30 years since 01/01/2016. Uncertainties in probability calculations are also estimated using a Monte Carlo procedure. It must be mentioned that the provided results should be treated carefully because of their dependence to the initial assumptions. Such assumptions exhibit large variability and alternative means of these may return different final results.     

Calcareous nannofossil and planktonic foraminiferal distributional patterns during deposition of sapropels S6, S5 and S1 in the Libyan Sea (Eastern Mediterranean)

In core ADE3-23 collected in the Libyan Sea, the nannofossil species Coccolithus pelagicus, Coronosphaera spp., Helicosphaera spp., Syracosphaera spp., Calcidiscus spp., small Gephyrocapsa spp., and the planktonic foraminifers Globigerina bulloides, Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, Globorotalia scitula, Turborotalita quinqueloba and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei prevail in sapropel S6 (midpoint at 172 ka b.p.), indicative of cold and highly productive surface conditions. Warm and highly stratified water-column conditions are recorded by the characteristic assemblage of Globigerinoides ruber, Globoturborotalita rubescens, Florisphaera profunda, Rhabdosphaera spp. during the sapropel S5 depositional interval (midpoint at 124 ka b.p.). Compared with S5, Globigerinita glutinata, Globorotalia inflata, Globigerinella siphonifera, Globorotalia truncatulinoides and the calcareous nannofossil Emiliania huxleyi characterise less stratified conditions within sapropel S1 (midpoint at 8.5 ka b.p.). Multivariate statistical analyses of calcareous nannofossil and planktonic foraminifers in core ADE3-23 identify planktonic assemblages which typify sapropels S6, S5 and S1 in the Libyan Sea. A warmer interval is recognised in the middle part of the cold S6, and can be associated with an influx of less saline waters and the occurrence of a faint, temporary deep chlorophyll maximum. Evidence for enhanced surface productivity and breakdown of stratification is observed in the middle–upper part of the warm S5, associated with climatic deterioration. Moreover, an increase in surface productivity in the upper S1 implies weak stratification. Our combined calcareous nannofossil and planktonic foraminiferal data add to the evidence that climate variability was more pronounced than commonly considered to date for all the three studied Eastern Mediterranean sapropel depositional intervals.     

Active hydrothermal fluids circulation triggering small-scale collapse events: the case of the 2001–2002 fissure in the Lakki Plain (Nisyros Island,Aegean Sea,Greece)

Rip currents are fast moving, offshore flows that have the ability to move even the strongest swimmers into deeper waters. Miami Beach, Florida is one of the most visited beaches in the USA and a sought after destination for citizens and international tourists alike. It is also known to be a rip current “hot spot.” These factors greatly increase the risk of drowning; however, no previous research has focused on beachgoer perception of rip-related risks in South Florida. Over a 12-month period, 203 public surveys were collected to determine the rip current knowledge of beachgoers at Miami Beach based on factors such as swimming ability and frequency of beach visits. The responses were analyzed by constructing a normalized component factor to determine the respondent’s comprehensive knowledge of rips, and multiple regression models were used to assess the net influences of sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics on the responses. A significant proportion of the survey respondents showed insufficient knowledge, indicating they are at risk of drowning in a rip current. Frequent beachgoer’s exposure to the beach environment, maturation, and nativity is identified as the main contributors to knowledge net of other sociodemographic compositions. The most at-risk groups were determined to be young adults, foreign tourists, poor swimmers, and those who infrequently visited the beach. Miami Beach needs to initiate a rip current safety campaign to target these at-risk beachgoers, where interventions beyond familial and educational institutions should be introduced.     

Winter convective precipitation variability in southeastern Europe and its connection to middle tropospheric circulation for the 60-year period, 1950–2009

The inter-annual variability of winter convective precipitation rate (CPR) in southeastern Europe and its connection to 500?hPa geopotential height (GH) is examined for the period 1950–2009 by using factor analysis and canonical correlation analysis. Two GH centers of action for CPR are found. The first one is located over Italy and it is associated with the typical winter depression activity regime over the Mediterranean Sea, controlling CPR in southern Italy, the southern Balkans, west Asia Minor, and the adjacent seas. The second one is located over the British Isles and it is associated with blocking activity over western Europe being responsible for a CPR seesaw teleconnection between (1) northern Italy, the Alps and the northwestern Balkans and (2) the south central Mediterranean Sea, south of Sicily. A CPR decrease in most of the areas under study and a CPR increase in the south central Mediterranean Sea are found.     

中国鲤科鱼类游泳能力综合分析和应用

该研究利用学术论文数据库筛选出中国鲤科鱼类游泳能力相关论文115篇,并用Origin软件进行了数据统计分析,旨在归纳和分析中国鲤科鱼类游泳能力并建立估算方法,可为正处于规划阶段和可行性研究阶段的过鱼设施流速设计提供依据.结果表明：(1)鱼类游泳速度与鱼体长度具有显著的非线性相关关系,据此建立了一系列幂函数经验公式,可为游泳能力和过鱼设施研究及设计提供依据.(2)依据所得到的经验公式和协方差分析可知,喜流水型鲤科鱼类的游泳能力>广适型>喜静水型.根据该研究得到的经验公式并结合行业规范和文献资料,对正处于规划阶段和可行性研究阶段过鱼设施流速设计的建议如下：西南地区以裂腹鱼成鱼为主要过鱼对象的过鱼设施进鱼口吸引流速范围为0.61～0.76m/s,通道内最高流速阈值为1.28 m/s;长江中下游以四大家鱼成鱼为主要过鱼对象的进鱼口吸引流速范围为0.76～0.93m/s,通道内最高流速阈值为1.49 m/s,以四大家鱼幼鱼为主要过鱼对象的进鱼口吸引流速范围为0.42～0.62 m/s,通道内最高流速阈值可为0.82 m/s.     

Spatial patterns of biodiversity in the Black Sea: An assessment using benthic polychaetes

The current study broadens the biodiversity information available for the Black Sea and neighbouring regions and improves our knowledge about the polychaete biogeographic patterns to be discerned in them. There appears to be a well-defined zoogeocline from the Marmara Sea and Bosphorus Strait to the inner parts of the region (Azov Sea), depicted both as a multivariate pattern and in terms of species (or taxa) numbers. The emergent multivariate pattern complies, to a certain extent, with Jakubova’s (1935) views: three main sectors can be defined in the basin: (a) Prebosphoric, (b) the Black Sea and, (c) the Azov Sea, whereas the Bosphorus Strait and Marmara Sea show less faunal affinities with the afore-mentioned sectors. Patterns derived both from the cosmopolitan and Atlanto-Mediterranean species closely follow the one coming from the polychaete species and genera inventories. As a general trend, species numbers decrease along with the decrease in salinity towards the inner parts of the region. The trend is homologous to that seen in the benthic invertebrate inventories of all the major European semi-enclosed regional seas. Salinity and food availability appear to be the dominant abiotic factors correlated, though weakly, with the various patterns deriving from the taxonomic/zoogeographic categories. With the exception of the Anatolia, polychaete inventories from all sectors appear to be random samples of the total inventory of the region, in terms of taxonomic distinctness values. Therefore, these sectoral inventories can be used for future biodiversity/environmental impact assessment studies. A massive invasion of Mediterranean species after the opening of the Black Sea, in the lower Quaternary period, appears to be the likely biogeographic mechanism through which the old Sarmatic fauna was almost completely replaced by species of marine origin.     

The Structure and the Partial Opacity of the Spiral Shocks on the Novalike Cataclysmic Variables

V347 Pup is the first novalike system with clear spiral arms in its accretion disc, as evidenced from its HeI Doppler maps. Combining the Doppler maps of the various lines of the system V347 Pup a more complex structure is revealed on the first arm. On the Doppler maps of HeI λ5875 emission line the first arm splits to two smaller and thinner structures. The Doppler map of HeI λ6678 emission line shows that this line dominates the region of thin structure with higher velocities that we met on the Doppler map of HeI λ5875 emission line. On the contrary the Hα emission line dominates the region of thin structure with lower velocities. We therefore observe, that the Hα emission line dominates on the exterior of the first arm, and the emission line of HeI on the interior. Most of NaI is probably emanated from the white dwarf or from the interior of the disc, and then being absorbed by the spiral shocks.     

Identifying wildland fire ignition factors through sensitivity analysis of a neural network

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) show a significant ability to discover patterns in data that are too obscure to go through standard statistical methods. Data of natural phenomena usually exhibit significantly unpredictable non-linearity, but the robust behavior of a neural network makes it perfectly adaptable to environmental models such as a wildland fire danger rating system. These systems have been adopted by many developed countries that have invested in wildland fire prevention, and thus civil protection agencies are able to identify areas with high probabilities of fire ignition and resort to necessary actions. Since one of the drawbacks of ANNs is the interpretation of the final model in terms of the importance of variables, this article presents the results of sensitivity analysis performed in a back-propagation neural network (BPN) to distinguish the influence of each variable in a fire ignition risk scheme developed for Lesvos Island in Greece. Four different methods were utilized to evaluate the three fire danger indices developed within the above scheme; three of the methods are based on network’s weights after the training procedure (i.e., the percentage of influence—PI, the weight product—WP, and the partial derivatives—PD methods), and one is based on the logistic regression (LR) model between BPN inputs and observed outputs. Results showed that the occurrence of rainfall, the 10-h fuel moisture content, and the month of the year parameter are the most significant variables of the Fire Weather, Fire Hazard, and Fire Risk Indices, respectively. Relative humidity, elevation, and day of the week have a small contribution to fire ignitions in the study area. The PD method showed the best performance in ranking variables’ importance, while performance of the rest of the methods was influenced by the number of input parameters and the magnitude of their importance. The results can be used by local forest managers and other decision makers dealing with wildland fires to take the appropriate preventive measures by emphasizing on the important factors of fire occurrence.