Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

Wave diffraction and near-trapping by a multi-column gravity-based structure

This paper is concerned with the diffraction of water waves by offshore structures, with the ultimate aim of proposing tools for guiding airgap design. The diffraction of monochromatic waves by an array of four bottom mounted cylinders and a gravity-based structure is studied in detail using linear and second order theory. The phenomenon of near-trapping is investigated, allowing guidelines for airgap design to be established. When contemplating airgap design, however, it is crucially important that consideration is given to the largest waves in a sea state. Therefore, in this study a design wave, called NewWave, is proposed as a realistic model for large ocean waves and is used as the incident wave field in the wave-structure diffraction analysis.     

A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.     

Fundamental study for morphodynamic modelling: Sand mounds in oscillatory flows

Experiments on sand mounds in oscillatory flow, undertaken in controlled, large-scale laboratory conditions, have produced well-defined data sets for model comparison. Three bathymetries with different levels of submergence, including a surface-piercing case, were tested. The maximum slope was about 1:5.5. Sediment transport is due to bed load with ripple formation. The principal time-dependent bulk parameters are the vertical distance of the centre of gravity above the base and the volume of the mound. A semi-implicit finite-volume depth-averaged hydrodynamic model is used to drive morphodynamics, using van Rijn's sediment flux model generalized to take account of bed slope, and some justification is given for depth-averaged modeling in these conditions. Starting the model runs with the conditions at the end of the first cycle avoided initial atypical physical behaviour. In general good predictions were obtained with an angle of repose reduced from the standard value of about 30° for stationary beds to 15°. For these situations, morphodynamics was largely unaffected by a hydrodynamic roughness height in the range 2.5D₅₀ to 51D₅₀, with larger values accounting for ripple roughness. The reduced angle of repose may be physically expected with mobile beds but this specific value is only expected to be suited to this form of bed motion. In one case an exaggerated ripple formed near the top of the mound reducing agreement with experiment. For the submerged case with normal ripple structure excellent predictions were obtained. For the initially surface-piercing mound, the time of submergence was better predicted with a 30° angle of repose, presumably due to the prominent influence of the near stationary bed near the wet/dry interface, although long term predictions were better predicted with 15°. The occurrence of vortex shedding in the first cycle modeled was in agreement with experimental observation.     

Features of coastal upwelling regions that determine net air-sea CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux

The influence of the coastal ocean on global net annual air-sea CO₂ fluxes remains uncertain. However, it is well known that air-sea pCO₂ disequilibria can be large (ocean pCO₂ ranging from ∼400 μatm above atmospheric saturation to ∼250 μatm below) in eastern boundary currents, and it has been hypothesized that these regions may be an appreciable net carbon sink. In addition it has been shown that the high productivity in these regions (responsible for the exceptionally low surface pCO₂) can cause nutrients and inorganic carbon to become more concentrated in the lower layer of the water column over the shelf relative to adjacent open ocean waters of the same density. This paper explores the potential role of the winter season in determining the net annual CO₂ flux in temperate zone eastern boundary currents, using the results from a box model. The model is parameterized and forced to represent the northernmost part of the upwelling region on the North American Pacific coast. Model results are compared to the few summer data that exist in that region. The model is also used to determine the effect that upwelling and downwelling strength have on the net annual CO₂ flux. Results show that downwelling may play an important role in limiting the amount of CO₂ outgassing that occurs during winter. Finally data from three distinct regions on the Pacific coast are compared to highlight the importance of upwelling and downwelling strength in determining carbon fluxes in eastern boundary currents and to suggest that other features, such as shelf width, are likely to be important.     

Resource partitioning by two large planktivorous fishes Micromesistius australis and Macruronus magellanicus in the Southwest Atlantic

The ontogenetic, seasonal, bathymetric and regional variations in the feeding spectrum of 922 specimens of southern blue whiting Micromesistius australis and 512 specimens of hoki Macruronus magellanicus were studied on the Falkland Islands’ shelf (Southwest Atlantic) between November 1999 and April 2003. A total of 49 different prey items were found in the stomach contents of the two species, with the hyperiid Themisto gaudichaudii and Euphausiacea being amongst the most important prey. Although the species composition did not change over fish size, the proportions of individual prey items in their diets did, with an increase in T. gaudichaudii and Euphausiacea with increasing fish size in southern blue whiting. The opposite occurred in hoki. Seasonal variations in the diet were found to mirror the seasonal abundance of prey around the Falkland Islands for the two species. Intra-specific differences in the diet of both predators reflected the distribution of prey, which in turn was determined by the water structure in the two regions sampled, leading to very different diets. In the limited time that the two species occupied the same space there was little or no competition resulting in almost total segregation of their trophic niches in space and time.     

Stable isotope ratios in Cape gannets around the southern coasts of Africa reveal penetration of biogeographic patterns in oceanic signatures

The southern coasts of Africa are influenced by two major oceanic currents, leading to biogeographic patterns in inshore and offshore species assemblages, and in the stable isotope signatures of suspended particulate matter and filter-feeding mussels. We used the stable isotope ratios of carbon (¹³C/¹²C) and nitrogen (¹⁵N/¹⁴N) from the blood and feathers of adult and chick Cape gannets (Morus capensis) to investigate whether the geographic differences observed at the lower levels in the marine communities are deep penetrating effects that reach top predators. Additionally, we evaluated whether trophic segregation occurs between adult and reared chick gannets, and whether a shift to wintering habitat occurs in adults. The study was conducted during the 2006 breeding season on Bird Island in the Agulhas system, and on Malgas and Ichaboe Islands, in the south and north Benguela respectively. Our results showed significant differences in the isotope ratios of members of different colonies, but no intra-colony differences between tissues or age groups. These results indicate that there is neither age-related nor temporal segregation in the diet of members of the same colony. Feather isotopic values suggest that adults remain all year round in the same habitats, and do not undertake long migration after reproduction. Since all gannets tend to target similar prey, we attributed among-colony differences in isotope signatures mostly to the oceanic conditions experienced by the main prey of birds rather than substantial differences in diet composition. Overall, isotopic signatures segregate the two current systems, with depleted carbon values in the Agulhas and enriched nitrogen values in the upwelled waters of the Benguela. Within the Benguela birds from Ichaboe in the north had higher δ¹⁵N values than those from Malgas in the south, which we attributed to differences in the functioning of the upwelling cells in the vicinity of the two colonies. Finally, slight variation in the proportion of main prey and discards from fisheries may contribute to the variation in the stable-isotope signatures between colonies in the Benguela.     

Creating an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum from a giant impact

The giant impact hypothesis is the dominant theory explaining the formation of our Moon. However, the inability to produce an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum has cast a shadow on its validity. Computer-generated impacts have been successful in producing virtual systems that possess many of the observed physical properties. However, addressing the isotopic similarities between the Earth and Moon coupled with correct angular momentum has proven to be challenging. Equilibration and evection resonance have been proposed as means of reconciling the models. In the summer of 2013, the Royal Society called a meeting solely to discuss the formation of the Moon. In this meeting, evection resonance and equilibration were both questioned as viable means of removing the deficiencies from giant impact models. The main concerns were that models were multi-staged and too complex. We present here initial impact conditions that produce an isotopically similar Earth–Moon system with correct angular momentum. This is done in a single-staged simulation. The initial parameters are straightforward and the results evolve solely from the impact. This was accomplished by colliding two roughly half-Earth-sized impactors, rotating in approximately the same plane in a high-energy, off-centered impact, where both impactors spin into the collision.