Impacts of a Ghg-Induced Climate Change on Crop Yields: Effects of Acceleration in Maturation, Moisture Stress and Optimal Temperature

The present study involves using the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) climate change scenario to evaluate the impacts of a CO₂-induced climate change on agriculture in Québec and vicinity. Climate change using the CCC General Circulation Model (GCM) data are fed into a crop model (FAO) so as to gauge the changes in agroclimatic factors such as growing season length and growing degree days, and subsequently potential yield changes for a variety of cereal (C₃ and C₄), leguminous, oleaginous, vegetable and special crops, for twelve major agricultural regions in southern Québec. Our results show that depending upon the agricultural zone and crop type, yields may increase (ex. corn and sorghum by 20%) or decrease (ex. wheat and soybean by 20 to 30%). Also, these crop yield changes appear to be related to acceleration in maturation rates, mainly to change in moisture stress and to shifts in optimal thermal growth conditions. These possible shifts in agricultural production potentials would solicit the formulation of appropriate adaptation strategies.     

Interactions between Habitat Loss and Climate Change: Implications for Fairy Shrimp in the Central Valley Ecoregion of California, Usa

Combinations of habitat loss and climate change can alter the distribution of environmental conditions available to organisms. The magnitude and direction of these changes may have important implications for ecological processes and species persistence. This study explored the potential impacts of projected changes in climate and land-use for five fairy shrimp species (Crustacea: Anostraca) endemic to vernal pools in the Central Valley ecoregion of California, U.S.A. Scenarios describing habitat extent and climate were developed for 2040 and 2100 and compared to a 1990s baseline. Hydrologic conditions in vernal pools were found to be sensitive to projected climate changes, and, in the absence of habitat loss, warmer temperatures and greater winter precipitation would drive vernal pools toward longer, more frequent periods of inundation. However, existing biological reserves for three of the five species are biased toward drier areas and if unprotected habitat were lost, the net change in hydrologic conditions would be reversed with remaining habitat providing shorter, less frequent inundations. Species with unbiased representation in reserves do not show this reversal, and they have predictable shifts in hydrologic conditions. These results demonstrate the importance of biologically and climatically representative reserve systems under climate change and habitat loss.     

Aureoles of Pb(II)-enriched feldspar around monazite in paragneiss and anatectic pods of the Napier Complex,Enderby Land,East Antarctica: the roles of dissolution-reprecipitation and diffusion

Extraordinarily high Pb content in K-feldspar and plagioclase has been found contiguous to monazite in two occurrences in the ultrahigh-temperature Napier Complex of Antarctica. Monazite shows a variety of textures and compositions. In a garnet-sillimanite-orthopyroxene paragneiss at Mount Pardoe (Amundsen Bay), grains range 80–150 μm across and are anhedral; two grains are Th- and Si-dominant. In pods that crystallized from anatectic melts at 2500 Ma at Zircon Point, Casey Bay, monazite grains range 0.05 mm–1 cm in length and are highly variable in texture. The coarsest grains (>0.7 cm) are skeletal and euhedral, whereas the smallest grains are anhedral and associated with fine- to medium-grained quartz, K-feldspar, plagioclase, garnet, sillimanite and rutile in aggregates that form interstitial veinlets interpreted to be a second generation of anatexis during an event at 1100 Ma. The huttonite component (ThSiO₄) reaches 30 mole% in the cores of the coarsest skeletal grains, whereas other grains, particularly smaller ones, show complex and irregular zoning in Th and U. The latter zoning is attributed to dissolution-reprecipitation, which also resulted in complete Pb loss during the 1100 Ma event. In the paragneiss at Mount Pardoe, K-feldspar and myrmekitic plagioclase (An16) are found in a 70–80 μm band between monazite and orthopyroxene and contain up to 12.7 wt.% and 2.7 wt.% PbO, respectively, corresponding to 18.5% and 3.4% PbAl₂Si₂O₈ component, respectively. Cathodoluminescence of both feldspars increases with distance from a nearby monazite grain and is not correlated with Pb content. Incorporation of Pb in K-feldspar and plagioclase could be a result of diffusion, even though the monazite adjacent to feldspar apparently lost little Pb, i.e., Pb could have been transported by fluid from the Th-rich grains, which did lose Pb. In contrast to the paragneiss, cathodoluminescence correlates with Pb content of K-feldspar in aureoles surrounding skeletal monazite grains 0.7–1 cm across in anatectic pods at Zircon Point. Pb content of K-feldspar decreases monotonically to near detection limits within several millimetres of monazite grains; the greatest PbO concentration is attained in K-feldspar inliers and embayments in monazite, 8.8 wt.%, corresponding to 11.7% PbAl₂Si₂O₈ component. Fine-grained quartz in the K-feldspar suggests that the mechanism for Pb incorporation involved breakdown of feldspar: Pb²⁺ + 2(K,Na)AlSi₃O₈ → PbAl₂Si₂O₈ + 4SiO₂ + 2(K,Na)⁺ . The smooth decrease of Pb in the aureoles is not characteristic of dissolution-reprecipitation, which is characterized by abrupt changes of composition, and it seems more likely that Pb was incorporated in K-feldspar by diffusion at 1100 Ma. We suggest a model whereby fluid introduced during the 1100 Ma event flowed along grain boundaries and penetrated mineral grains. Temperatures were sufficiently high, i.e., 700°C, assuming burial in the mid-crust, for the fluid to induce localized melting of quartzofeldspathic matrix of the anatectic pods. Loss of radiogenic Pb was complete. Some penetration of K-feldspar by aqueous fluid is suggested by the presence of scattered galena specks and by rays of turbidity emanating from monazite. Aqueous fluid or water-rich granitic melt may have mediated the diffusion of Pb in feldspar, but it did not cause dissolution-reprecipitation. Although Pb was mobilized by aqueous fluid or water-rich granitic melt, it was not entirely flushed from the immediate vicinity of the monazite, but nearly half was incorporated in adjacent feldspar. Fluid activity that could cause Pb loss in monazite does not always leave an obvious trace, i.e., hydrous minerals, such as sericite, are very sparse, and biotite is absent in the anatectic pods at Zircon Point. Nonetheless, electron microprobe dating of monazite from the pods could not detect the 2500 Ma age of original crystallization determined by isotopic dating.     

Precursors to dyke-fed eruptions at basaltic volcanoes: insights from patterns of volcano-tectonic seismicity at Kilauea volcano,Hawaii

To investigate the physical controls on volcano-tectonic (VT) precursors to eruptions and intrusions at basaltic volcanoes, we have analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of VT earthquakes associated with 34 eruptions and 23 dyke intrusions that occurred between 1960 and 1983 at Kilauea, in Hawaii. Eighteen of the 57 magmatic events were preceded by an acceleration of the mean rate of VT earthquakes located close to the main shallow magma reservoir. Using a maximum-likelihood technique and the Bayesian Information Criterion for model preference, we demonstrate that an exponential acceleration is preferred over a power-law acceleration for all sequences. These sequences evolve over time-scales of weeks to months and are consistent with theoretical models for the approach to volcanic eruptions based on the growth of a population of fractures in response to an excess magma pressure. Among the remaining 40 magmatic events, we found a significant correlation between swarms of VT earthquakes located in the mobile south-flank of Kilauea and eruptions and intrusions. The behaviour of these swarms suggests that at least some of the magmatic events are triggered by transient episodes of elevated rates of aseismic flank movement, which could explain why many eruptions and intrusions are not preceded by longer-term precursory signals. In none of the 57 cases could a precursory sequence be used to distinguish between the approach to an eruption or an intrusion, so that, even when a precursory sequence is recognized, there remains an empirical chance of about 40% (24 intrusions from 57 magmatic events) of issuing a false alarm for an imminent eruption.     

Identifying sources of groundwater in the lower Colorado River valley, USA, with δ18O, δD, and 3H: implications for river water accounting

Isotope measurements (¹⁸O, D, ³H) indicate groundwater origin in the Lower Colorado River Valley (LCRV) and provide an alternative, or supplement, to the US Bureau of Reclamations proposed accounting surface method. The accounting surface method uses a hydraulic criterion to identify certain wells away from the flood plain that will eventually yield mainstream Colorado River water. New isotope data for 5 surface-water and 18 groundwater sites around Topock Marsh, Arizona, are compared with river-water data (1974–2002) from 11 sites between Utah and Mexico and with groundwater data from previous LCRV studies. Three groundwater sources are repeatedly identified in the LCRV: (1) local recharge derived from precipitation, usually winter rain, plots slightly below the global meteoric water line (GMWL) and has D values that are 20 greater than those of recent river water; (2) older (pre-1950) upper basin river-water plots on or near the GMWL, distinct from local rainfall and recent river water; and (3) recent (post-1950) Colorado River water, including Topock Marsh samples, plots below the GMWL along an evaporation trend. Large floods, as in 1983, complicate interpretation by routing less evaporated upper basin water into the LCRV; however, tritium content can indicate the age of a water. River-water tritium has declined steadily from its peak of 716 TU in 1967 to about 11 TU in 2002. Mixtures of all three groundwater sources are common.

---

Resumen Mediciones isotópicas (¹⁸O, D, ³H) indican cual es el origen del agua subterránea en el Valle Bajo del Río Colorado (LCRV) y aportan una alternativa, o complemento, para el método superficie de conteo propuesto por el Buró de Reclamación de Estados Unidos. El método superficie de conteo utiliza un criterio hidráulico para identificar ciertos pozos alejados de la planicie de inundación que eventualmente producirán agua a partir de la corriente principal del Río Colorado. Los nuevos datos isotópicos para 18 sitios de agua subterránea y 5 sitios de agua superficial cerca de los Pantanos Topock, Arizona, se comparan con datos de agua de río (1974–2002) provenientes de 11 sitios localizados entre Utah y México, y con datos de aguas subterráneas de estudios previos realizados en el LCRV. Se identifican reiteradamente tres fuentes de aguas subterráneas en el LCRV: (1) recarga local derivada de precipitación, generalmente lluvia de invierno, cuya composición cae ligeramente por debajo de la línea de agua meteórica global (GMWL) y tiene valores D que son 20 mayores que los reportados para agua de río reciente; (2) el agua de río más vieja (pre-1950) de la cuenca alta cuya composición cae sobre o cerca de la GMWL, diferente de la lluvia local y del agua de río reciente; (3) agua reciente (post-1950) del Río Colorado, incluyendo muestras de los Pantanos Topock, con composición por debajo de la GMWL a lo largo de una tendencia a la evaporación. Inundaciones grandes, como en 1983, complican la interpretación al transmitir menos agua evaporada de la cuenca alta hacia el LCRV; sin embargo, el contenido de tritio puede indicar la edad del agua. El contenido de tritio en agua de río ha disminuido constantemente desde la concentración pico de 716 TU en 1967 a cerca de 11 TU en 2002. Es común que exista mezclas de las tres fuentes de agua subterránea.

---

Résumé Les mesures isotopiques (d18O, dD, 3H) indiquent les origine de leaux souterraines dans la Vallée de la Rivière du Bas Colorado (LCRV) et sont une alternative, ou un supplément, à la méthode des bilans hydrologiques proposée par du «US Bureau of Reclamation». Cette méthode de bilan hydrologique utilise un critère hydraulique permettant didentifier certains puits hors de la plaine dinondation qui pomperaient une part non négligeable de leur eau dans la rivière Colorado. De nouvelles données isotopiques provenant de 5 sites deau de surface et 18 deaux souterraines autour de Topock Marsh en Arizona, sont comparées avec les données (1974–2000) de 11 sites localisés entre Utah et Mexico, ainsi que des données dautres études sur la LCRV. Ces sources deaux souterraines sont identifiées à plusieurs reprises dans la LCRV: (1) la recharge locale dérivant des précipitations, généralement les pluies hivernales, se retrouvent légèrement sous la ligne deau météoritique globale (GMWL) et possède des valeurs de dD 20% supérieures aux valeurs des eaux récentes de la rivière; (2) les eaux vieilles (pre-1950) du bassin supérieur de la rivière possèdent une valeurs très proches de la GMWL, distinctes des valeurs de la pluie locale et des eaux récentes de la rivière; et (3) les eaux récentes (post-1950) de la Rivière Colorado, incluant les échantillons de Topock Marsh, se positionnent à côté de la GMWL sur une droite dévaporation. Les grandes inondations, par exemple celle de 1983, compliquent linterprétation en reprenant dans la LCRV moins deaux marquées comme évaporées et provenant du bassin supérieur; par ailleurs le pic de tritium est descendu de 716 TU en 1967 à 11 TU en 2002. Les mélanges de ces trois sources sont assez fréquentes.

     

Isotopically diverse rhyolites coeval with the Columbia River Flood Basalts: evidence for mantle plume interaction with the continental crust

The Columbia River Flood Basalts (CRB) of the northwestern USA are coeval with eruptions of several thousand km³ of rhyolite. A broad survey of major phenocryst oxygen isotopes and of O and Hf isotopes in zircons from these rhyolites reveals significant diversity in inferred δ¹⁸O_melt values, ranging from +1.9 to +10.5‰ (SMOW), and in zircon Hf isotope compositions, which range from ε_Hf = ?39 to +9. This newly identified isotopic diversity shows that the syn‐CRB rhyolites were derived from high‐percentage melting of the crust. Low‐δ¹⁸O rhyolites, which fingerprint the melting of hydrothermally altered crust, are concentrated at the edge of the North American craton. This suggests that the conditions of crustal heating, faulting, and hydrothermal alteration required for the production of these rhyolites were concentrated there by the contrasts in crustal thickness and rheology associated with the boundary between the North American craton and younger accreted terranes.     

Multiple-methods investigation of recharge at a humid-region fractured rock site,Pennsylvania, USA

Lysimeter-percolate and well-hydrograph analyses were combined to evaluate recharge for the Masser Recharge Site (central Pennsylvania, USA). In humid regions, aquifer recharge through an unconfined low-porosity fractured-rock aquifer can cause large magnitude water-table fluctuations over short time scales. The unsaturated hydraulic characteristics of the subsurface porous media control the magnitude and timing of these fluctuations. Data from multiple sets of lysimeters at the site show a highly seasonal pattern of percolate and exhibit variability due to both installation factors and hydraulic property heterogeneity. Individual event analysis of well hydrograph data reveals the primary influences on water-table response, namely rainfall depth, rainfall intensity, and initial water-table depth. Spatial and seasonal variability in well response is also evident. A new approach for calculating recharge from continuous water-table elevation records using a master recession curve (MRC) is demonstrated. The recharge estimated by the MRC approach when assuming a constant specific yield is seasonal to a lesser degree than the recharge estimate resulting from the lysimeter analysis. Partial reconciliation of the two recharge estimates is achieved by considering a conceptual model of flow processes in the highly-heterogeneous underlying fractured porous medium.