Mechanisms of seismic quiescences

In the past decade there have been major advances in understanding the seismic cycle in terms of the recognition of characteristic patterns of seismicity over the entire tectonic loading cycle. The most distinctive types of patterns are seismic quiescences, of which three types can be recognized:post-seismic quiescence, which occurs in the region of the rupture zone of an earthquake and persists for a substantial fraction of the recurrence time following the earthquake,intermediate-term quiescences, which appear over a similar region and persist for several years prior to large plate-rupturing earthquakes, andshort-term quiescences, which are pronounced lulls in premonitory swarms that occur in the hypocentral region hours or days before an earthquake. Although the frequency with which intermediate-term and short-term quiescences precede earthquakes is not known, and the statistical significance of some of the former has been challenged, there is a need, if this phenomena is to be considered a possibly real precursor, to consider physical mechanisms that may be responsible for them.The characteristic features of these quiescences are reviewed, and possible mechanisms for their cause are discussed. Post-seismic quiescence can be readily explained by any simple model of the tectonic loading cycle as due to the regional effect of the stress-drop of the previous principal earthquake. The other types of quiescence require significant modification to any such simple model. Of the possibilities considered, only two seem viable in predicting the observed phenomena, dilatancy hardening and slip weakening. Intermediate-term quiescences typically occur over a region equal to or several times the size of the rupture zone of the later earthquake and exhibit a relationship between the quiescence duration and size of the earthquake: they thus involve regional hardening or stress relaxation and agree with the predictions of the dilatancy-diffusion theory. Short-term quiescences, on the other hand, are more likely explained by fault zone dilatancy hardening and/or slip weakening within a small nucleation zone. Because seismicity is a locally relaxing process, seismicity should follow a behaviour known in rock mechanics as the Kaiser effect, in which only a very slight increase in strength, due to dilatancy hardening or decrease in stress due to slip weakening, is required to cause quiescence. This is in contrast to other precursory phenomena predicted by dilatancy, which require large dilatant strains and complete dilatancy hardening.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory     

Factors affecting trans-Tasman air services

International civil aviation is circumscribed by a plethora of bilateral air service agreements between sovereign nations. In recent years there has been a marked trend to liberalise these agreements as well as moves to create multilateral common markets as appear to be emerging in Europe. Airline managements are being given opportunities to implement operational strategies once severely proscribed in confidential memoranda of understanding lying behind the public bilateral documents. In keeping with the philosophy of extending the Closer Economic Relations (CER) agreement, Australia and New Zealand have been exploring the ramifications of bringing trade in air services within the ambit of CER. This paper examines some of the factors affecting the trans Tasman civil aviation environment and discusses the implications of modifications to air services in and between Australia and New Zealand.     

Relationship between waterfowl and American coot abundance with submersed macrophytic vegetation in Currituck Sound,North Carolina

Waterfowl and American coot data collected from aerial censusing on Currituck Sound were compared during three periods: before Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum) colonization (1961–1965); during Eurasian watermilfoil infestation (1968–1977); and following the near absence of submersed macrophytic vegetation after Eurasian watermilfoil decline (1981–1990). Numbers of dabbling ducks (Anas rubripes, Anas platyrhynchos, Anas acuta, Anas americana, Anas crecca), ring-necked ducks (Aythya collaris), and American coot (Fulica americana) were significantly different in Currituck Sound (p<0.05) in at least two of these periods and were highest during Eurasian watermilfoil infestation. These species also constituted higher percentages of the Atlantic Flyway counts during Eurasian watermilfoil infestation. than in periods before or after. Numbers of snow geese (Chen caerulescens), Canada geese (Branta canadensis), and canvasbacks (Aythya valisneria) were significantly different between periods; however, these birds exhibited a consistent decline from the early to the late period. This study suggests that submersed macrophytes, specifically Eurasian watermilfoil, support increased numbers of dabbling ducks, ring-necked ducks, and American coot.     

Rock-magnetic proxies of climate change in the loess-palaeosol sequences of the western Loess Plateau of China

Results of the first detailed study of the climate proxy record in the loess-palaeosol sequence at Xining-one of the few palaeoclimate sites in the currently arid western Loess Plateau of China-illustrate the importance of making many types of rock-magnetic measurements other than susceptibility. A multiparameter approach yielded confirmation that here, as elsewhere in the Loess Plateau, the susceptibility enhancement in palaeosols was caused primarily by ultrafine magnetite and maghaemite. Nevertheless, magnetic enhancement was caused not exclusively by changes in relative grain size, but also by variations in concentration and mineralogy of the magnetic fraction.
The effects of concentration variations were removed through normalization of susceptibility and anhysteretic remanence with saturation magnetization and saturation remanence, respectively. the resulting signal was ascribed more confidently to variation in magnetic grain size, which in turn was interpreted as a better proxy of pedogenesis than simple susceptibility. Variations in magnetic mineralogy were also determined to constrain interpretations further. the data were then used to discuss climate history at Xining. Finally, results from Xining were compared with other western sites and contrasted with eastern sites.
In summary: (1) data is presented from a new Loess Plateau site which also appears to yield a global climate signal; (2) a demonstration is made of a more rock-magnetically robust way to separate concentration, composition and grain-size controls on susceptibility and other magnetic parameters; and (3) models are provided for inter-regional comparisons of palaeoclimate proxy records.     

Shape preferred orientation of object populations: automatic analysis of digitized images

An automatic technique is presented for systematic shape preferred orientation (SPO) analysis of crystal fabrics in rocks. This technique is based on digitization of an image with a CCD camera and separation of an object population from its matrix. The image is analysed globally using a rotating grid that is superimposed on the square pixel grid of the computer screen. The parametric method is based on counting intercepts in all directions. The interceps rose provides information on both the orientation and strength of the SPO. Problems of hardware-related counting noise anisotropy are avoided using an original method of filtering the intercept function with a linear, sliding mask on the counting grid. The technique was tested both on single objects of different shapes and on different populations of identical objects. A very high degree of accuracy was obtained for orientation measurements. Fabric shape parameters are introduced which are specific to this intercept technique; they compare favourably with shape parameters used in axial fabric analysis.     

Effects of lateral velocity heterogeneity under the Nevada Test Site on short-periodP wave amplitudes and travel times

Short-period teleseismicP waves from the Nevada Test Site (NTS) show systematic variations in amplitudes and travel times, with low amplitudes corresponding to fast travel times, suggesting elastic focussing-defocussing effects. Also, the azimuthal amplitude and travel time patterns for events at the Pahute Mesa subsite are systematically different from those at the Yucca Flat subsite, indicating the presence of a near-source component in both the amplitude and travel-time variations. This component is isolated by removing the mean station pattern for all of NTS from the observations. A very-near-source component in the Pahute Mesa observations is also isolated by removing subsite station means from the measurements, whereas the Yucca Flat observations exhibited no coherent very-near-source component. These anomalies are back-projected through laterally homogeneous structure to form thin lens models at various depths. Travel-time delays are predicted from the amplitude variations using the equation for wavefront curvature. The long-wavelength components of the predicted and observed time delays correlate well, at depths of 25 km for the very-near-source component under Pahute Mesa and 160 km for the regional component under NTS. The time delay surfaces predicted by the amplitudes at these depths are mapped into warped velocity discontinuities suitable for the calculation of synthetic seismograms using the Kirchhoff-Helmholtz integral formulation. Both the intersite (near-source) and intrasite (very-near-source) differences in amplitudes are qualitatively predicted very well, although the range of variation is somewhat underpredicted. This deficiency is likely due to the destructive interference of anomalies inherent in back-projection to a single layer.     

Responses of fish and macrobenthic assemblages to hydrologic disturbances in Tijuana Estuary and Los Peñasquitos Lagoon,California

Changes in the assemblages of fishes and benthic macro-invertebrates were evaluated in relation to wastewater inflows at Tijuana Estuary and impounded streamflows and mouth closure at Los Peñasquitos Lagoon. Freshwater from sewage spills or winter rains lowered water salinities and had major impacts on the channel organisms of both southern California coastal wetlands. Benthic infaunal assemblages responded more rapidly to reduced salinity than did fishes, with continued salinity reduction leading to the extirpation of most species. Both the fish and benthic invertebrate assemblages became dominated by species with early ages of maturity and protracted spawning seasons. Between-system comparisons showed that good tidal flushing reduced negative impacts on both the fish and benthic assemblages.     

High-resolution garnet chronometry and the rates of metamorphic processes

Garnets in an amphibolite-facies metasediment from Sulitjelma, North Norway yield precise and concordant SmNd, UPb and RbSr ages that relate directly to the pressure (P) and temperature (T) conditions of mineral growth. Differential mineral reaction between graphitic and non-graphitic layers within this sample preserves a record of theP-T and time (t) history experienced during Barrovian regional metamorphism. Garnets in graphitic layers grew during prograde metamorphism at462 ± 16°C and5.2 ± 0.5 kbar under conditions of lowaH₂O, and yield indistinguishable¹⁴⁷Sm¹⁴³Nd and²³⁸U²⁰⁶Pb ages of434.1 ± 1.2 Ma and433.9 ± 1.0 Ma, respectively. In contrast, garnet growth in adjacent graphite-free layers did not occur untilP-T conditions of540 ± 18°C and8.0 ± 1.0 kbar were attained, with continued growth in response to minor heating and decompression with final matrix equilibration at544 ± 16°C and7.0 ± 1.0 kbar. The inclusion-free garnet rims in this assemblage record indistinguishable¹⁴⁷Sm¹⁴³Nd and²³⁸U²⁰⁶Pb ages of424.6 ± 1.2 Ma and423.4± 1.7 Ma, respectively. These results provide precise estimates for average heating and burial rates during prograde metamorphism of 8.6_−4.4^+7.5°C Ma⁻¹ and 0.8_−0.5^+0.9 km Ma⁻¹, respectively. Rb and Sr exchange between coexisting silicates in the graphite-free assemblage continued for some 37 Ma after the “peak” of metamorphism, and require an average cooling rate of about 4.0°C Ma⁻¹ during uplift. These results illustrate a clear relationship between reaction history and the timing of mineral growth and provide definitive constraints on the rates of thermal and tectonic processes accompanying regional metamorphism.