A risk society? Environmental hazards, risk and resilience in the later Middle Ages in Europe

Modern society is said to have restructured in reaction to contemporary hazards with the aim of improving its management of risk. This implies that pre-industrial societies were somehow fundamentally different. In this paper, we challenge that hypothesis by examining the ways in which risks associated with environmental hazards were managed and mitigated during the Middle Ages (defined here as the period from 1000 to 1550 AD). Beginning with a review of the many case studies of rapid onset disasters across Europe, we draw upon both historical and archaeological evidence and architectural assessments of structural damage for what is a pre-instrumental period. Building upon this, the second part of the paper explores individual outlooks on risk, emphasising the diversity of popular belief and the central importance of Christianity in framing attitudes. Despite their religious perspectives, we find that medieval communities were not helpless in the face of serious environmental hazards. We argue instead that the response of society to these threats was frequently complex, considered and, at times, surprisingly modern.     

Bombs behaving badly: unexpected trajectories and cooling of volcanic projectiles

We collected thermal infrared video of two explosive eruptions at Stromboli in June 2008 and manually traced the trajectories of 95 particles launched during two eruptions. We found that 10–15?% of the analyzed trajectories deviated from predicted curves due to collisions, causing one particle to travel horizontally more than twice as far as expected. Furthermore, we observed an oscillatory cooling behavior for the airborne pyroclasts, with a median period of 0.46?s. Measured cooling was typically much faster than model-predicted cooling with discrepancies of up to 40?% between measured cooling and theoretical modeling. We interpret the measured cooling curves as resulting from the spinning and twisting and tearing of particles during travel: the periodic re-exposing of the hotter core of the pyroclasts to the atmosphere may cause the observed oscillations, and the spinning may accelerate cooling by enhancing convective heat transfer. Current volcanic trajectory and cooling models do not account for projectile collisions, spinning, or tearing and can thus severely underestimate the maximum landing distance and cooling rates of large pyroclasts.     

Methods for reactive oxygen species (ROS) detection in aqueous environments

This review summarizes direct and indirect analytical methods for the detection and quantification of the reactive oxygen species (ROS): ¹O₂, O ₂ ^·? /HOO·, H₂O₂, HO·, and CO ₃ ^·? in aqueous solution. Each section briefly describes the chemical properties of a specific ROS followed by a table (organized alphabetically by detection method, i.e., absorbance, chemiluminescence, etc.) summarizing the nature of the observable (associated analytical signal) for each method, limit of detection, application notes, and reaction of the probe molecule with the particular ROS.     

Seismic design of RC external beam-column joints

The paper proposes an alternative method for the earthquake-resistant design of HDC external beam-column joints which is based on the assumption that the load transferred from the beam and column elements to the joint is predominantly resisted by a diagonal strut mechanism. The validity of the proposed method is verified experimentally through a comparative study of the behaviour of seven full-size beam-column joint sub-assemblages—three of them designed in compliance with the current European Codes and four in accordance with the proposed method—under cyclic loading. The results obtained indicate that, in contrast with the specimens designed in compliance with current code provisions, those designed so as to comply with the proposed specifications fully satisfy the code performance requirements.     

Decision support using the Multistatic Tactical Planning Aid (MSTPA)

The Multistatic Tactical Planning Aid (MSTPA) is a tool currently in development at NATO Undersea Research Centre which may be used to model the performance of a given multistatic sensor network in terms of the probability of detection of a submarine, the ability to hold a track and whether such a track could be correctly classified as such. The tool therefore considers the entire chain of events from an initial calculation of signal excess, the generation of a contact considering localisation errors, followed by the subsequent tracking and classification process. In its current form, the tool may be used to plan a particular multistatic scenario through operational analysis of many Monte Carlo simulations. The future development of MSTPA will transition towards a real-time decision support tool to assist operators and planners at sea. This study introduces a number of generic decision support techniques which may be wrapped around the MSTPA tool. The acoustic performance metric that will drive decisions will of course be subject to uncertainty relating to environmental measurements and extrapolations. The effect of this uncertainty on acoustic performance is examined here. Future studies will consider the sensitivity of the eventual decision—in terms of optimum sensor positions—to the acoustic uncertainty.     

Modelling of fluid–solid interactions using an adaptive mesh fluid model coupled with a combined finite–discrete element model

Fluid–structure interactions are modelled by coupling the finite element fluid/ocean model ‘Fluidity-ICOM’ with a combined finite–discrete element solid model ‘Y3D’. Because separate meshes are used for the fluids and solids, the present method is flexible in terms of discretisation schemes used for each material. Also, it can tackle multiple solids impacting on one another, without having ill-posed problems in the resolution of the fluid’s equations. Importantly, the proposed approach ensures that Newton’s third law is satisfied at the discrete level. This is done by first computing the action–reaction force on a supermesh, i.e. a function superspace of the fluid and solid meshes, and then projecting it to both meshes to use it as a source term in the fluid and solid equations. This paper demonstrates the properties of spatial conservation and accuracy of the method for a sphere immersed in a fluid, with prescribed fluid and solid velocities. While spatial conservation is shown to be independent of the mesh resolutions, accuracy requires fine resolutions in both fluid and solid meshes. It is further highlighted that unstructured meshes adapted to the solid concentration field reduce the numerical errors, in comparison with uniformly structured meshes with the same number of elements. The method is verified on flow past a falling sphere. Its potential for ocean applications is further shown through the simulation of vortex-induced vibrations of two cylinders and the flow past two flexible fibres.

     

Explaining global patterns and trends in marine protected area (MPA) development

The relative paucity and heterogeneous distribution of marine protected areas (MPAs) indicates the need for better understanding of factors that foster MPA establishment at local, sub-national, and national levels. The relationship between national-level MPA establishment and geographic, ecological, social, and political factors that may drive patterns and trends in MPA establishment were assessed. A country's coastline length is the strongest predictor of both the number and spatial extent of MPAs. Controlling for coastline, the Human Development Index (HDI) and spatial overlap with designated conservation priority areas are positively correlated with MPA establishment. Surprisingly, some factors influencing MPA establishment in case studies, such as percentage of fishers within a population, were not correlated with MPA establishment on a national scale. These national dynamics explain a relatively small proportion of variation, however, indicating that other biological or social factors, as well as sub-national processes, also influence MPA establishment. Positive and negative outliers illuminate the importance of policy engagement at both national and local levels. Ensuring a supportive enabling environment at the national or even multi-national level can enhance success at the local level.     

Boundary crossing and non‐linear theory in earth‐system sciences – a proof of concept based on tsunami and post‐eruption scenarios on Java Island,Indonesia

Although volcanic eruptions are well‐known to be the trigger of some weather and climatic changes, land‐cover changes by pyroclastic‐flows and lahars do not get this recognition, neither do major hazards such as tsunami. These two earth processes are even lesser considered as being able to modify other earth processes they are not directly connected to, such as landslides or river discharge in non‐connected basins more than a hundred kilometres away. In this contribution the authors argue that these ideas are mainly driven by the process of being ‘educated’ in a single academic discipline and once put to the test interactions and retroactions between earth processes and atmospheric processes are far more reaching than commonly thought. For this study, the site of Java Island (Indonesia) was chosen to conduct (1) an analysis of a major tsunami impact – in the same area as the 2006 Java tsunami and (2) an analysis of the post‐eruption impacts of Merapi Volcano after a major eruption – excluding any ejecta in the atmosphere for the sake of the demonstration. The atmospheric feedback simulations were conducted using the regional climate model (RegCM‐4) with calibration from weather stations in Java Island. As a result, both simulations have proven that large scale deposits of pyroclasts (not introducing the ejectas sent in the atmosphere) and tsunamis can have outstanding impacts on the atmospheric situation and the bio‐geomorphologic evolution of the landscape in the following weeks to months. Interestingly enough these impacts are not limited to the area impacted by the earth process and the effect are not linear in time as they work following thresholds. These rainfalls ‘tele‐impacts’ are important enough to, in turn, modify earth‐surface processes in areas remote from the original phenomenon. This system acts in the same manner as a famous butterfly in Africa that could trigger a hurricane on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SEPARATE BUT EQUAL? DESEGREGATING BALTIMORE'S GOLF COURSES*

ABSTRACT. Between the time of its opening, in 1923, and 1956, when the last vestiges of official segregation were swept away by the courts, the Carroll Park Municipal Golf Course in Baltimore, Maryland, figured prominently in the struggle to desegregate the city's recreational facilities. In this article we use historical sources to examine how access to Carroll Park was shaped by issues of race and ethnicity during the first half of the twentieth century, focusing specifically on the role the park played in the struggle to desegregate Baltimore's golf courses. We also consider how this victory ultimately contributed to desegregation at the city's other recreational facilities, including ball fields and swimming pools.