Developing seasonal rainfall scenarios for food security early warning

Rainfed agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 95 % of the local cereal production, impacting hundreds of millions of people. Early identification of poor rainfall conditions is a critical indicator of food security. As such, monitoring accumulated seasonal rainfall gives an important mid-season estimate of final accumulated totals. However, characterizing the remaining uncertainty in a season has largely been ignored by the food security community. This paper presents a new technique describing rainfall conditions over the duration of a crop-growing cycle by combining estimated rainfall-to-date with potential scenarios for the remaining season based on available satellite rainfall estimates, the common tool for rainfall analysis in Africa. The limited historical record provided by satellite rainfall estimates using previous seasons provides only a coarse view of likely seasonal totals. To combat this, scenarios developed by bootstrapping dekadal data to create synthetic seasons allow for a finer understanding of potential seasonal accumulations. Updating this throughout the season shows a narrowing envelope of seasonal totals, converging on the final seasonal result. The resulting scenarios inform the expectations for the final seasonal rainfall accumulation, allowing analysts to quantify and visualize the uncertainty in seasonal totals. Giving decision makers a tool for understanding the likelihood of specific rainfall amounts provides additional time to enact and mobilize efforts to reduce the impact of agricultural drought.     

Sea‐level response at Nain,Labrador, to atmospheric pressure and wind

Abstract

Two years of subtidal sea‐level data from Nain, Labrador, are analysed in terms of local atmospheric pressure and the two components of geostrophic wind or stress. Frequency‐dependent response coefficients are determined by multiple regression analysis involving inversion of the cross‐spectral matrix of the inputs. At very low frequencies the response to pressure is isostatic and the wind stress coefficients are consistent with those determined by Thompson et al. (1985) from analysis of a longer series of monthly means. There is very little change in the response between icy and ice‐free seasons. The wind, or stress, coefficients correspond to geostrophic set‐up by a narrow longshore current but do not show as much of an increase of phase lag with increasing frequency as expected. The pressure response is less than isostatic and lags as the frequency increases from zero to about 0.02 cph. Possible reasons for this are discussed. Removal of wind as well as pressure effects ffom the sea‐level data makes only minor changes to the monthly mean residual sea‐level.     

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output for air quality applications under a changing climate. In this study we downscale the NCEP-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis using three continuous 20-year WRF simulations: one simulation without interior grid nudging and two using different interior grid nudging methods. The biases in 2-m temperature and precipitation for the simulation without interior grid nudging are unreasonably large with respect to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the eastern half of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer when air quality concerns are most relevant. This study examines how these differences arise from errors in predicting the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is demonstrated that the Bermuda high, which strongly influences the regional climate for much of the eastern half of the CONUS during the summer, is poorly simulated without interior grid nudging. In particular, two summers when the Bermuda high was west (1993) and east (2003) of its climatological position are chosen to illustrate problems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. For both summers, WRF without interior grid nudging fails to simulate the placement of the upper-level anticyclonic (1993) and cyclonic (2003) circulation anomalies. The displacement of the large-scale circulation impacts the lower atmosphere moisture transport and precipitable water, affecting the convective environment and precipitation. Using interior grid nudging improves the large-scale circulation aloft and moisture transport/precipitable water anomalies, thereby improving the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that constraining the RCM to the large-scale features in the driving fields improves the overall accuracy of the simulated regional climate, and suggest that in the absence of such a constraint, the RCM will likely misrepresent important large-scale shifts in the atmospheric circulation under a future climate.     

Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation?

Three different resolution (50, 12, and 1.5 km) regional climate model simulations are compared in terms of their ability to simulate moderate and high daily precipitation events over the southern United Kingdom. The convection-permitting 1.5-km simulation is carried out without convective parametrisation. As in previous studies, increasing resolution (especially from 50 to 12 km) is found to improve the representation of orographic precipitation. The 50-km simulation underestimates mean precipitation over the mountainous region of Wales, and event intensity tends to be too weak; this bias is reduced in both the 12- and 1.5-km simulations for both summer and winter. In south–east England lowlands where summer extremes are mostly convective, increasing resolution does not necessary lead to an improvement in the simulation. For the 12-km simulation, simulated daily extreme events are overly intense. Even though the average intensity of summer daily extremes is improved in the 1.5-km simulation, this simulation has a poorer mean bias with too many events exceeding high thresholds. Spatial density and clustering of summer extremes in south–east England are poorly simulated in both the 12- and 1.5-km simulations. In general, we have not found any clear evidence to show that the 1.5-km simulation is superior to the 12-km simulation, or vice versa at the daily level.     

Piecemeal or combined? Assessing greenhouse gas mitigation spillovers in US forest and agriculture policy portfolios

ABSTRACT

Forest and agricultural sector response to comprehensive climate policy is well represented in the literature. Less analysis has been devoted to piecemeal solutions. We use the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) to project the individual and combined effect of three existing U.S. Department of Agriculture programmes with potential to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. We find that a combined policy scenario may achieve greater mitigation than individual constituent programmes, suggesting the possibility of complementary spillover effects in some periods. Mitigation varies over time, however, and some periods experience net emissions as markets and management practices respond to initial policy shocks. The regional distribution of GHG mitigation also varies between policy scenario. Differences in the magnitude and imputed cost of mitigation under each scenario, generating negative values for some programmes and time periods, reinforces the need to evaluate portfolio design to cost-effectively achieve near-term GHG mitigation.

Key policy insights

• Increased near-term GHG mitigation in the forest and agriculture sectors in the US may be possible by expanding or refocusing the emphasis of existing programmes.

• Implementing several such forest and agricultural programmes simultaneously may lead to greater GHG mitigation than when implemented separately, indicating the possibility of positive spillover effects.

• Programmes targeted to agricultural management may hold outsized potential to achieve near-term GHG mitigation; Policies aimed at influencing land use conversion appear to be more vulnerable to reversion and subject to larger inter-annual swings.

• The staged implementation of programmes could also be useful, helping to encourage increased mitigation (or the retention of already achieved mitigation) over time as markets re-equilibrate to initial shocks.

• Though the particular scenarios assessed here are unique to the US, our findings may be applicable to other locations outside the US where land management is influenced by individual market actors and there is competition between forest and agricultural land uses.

     

Sonic Anemometer as a Small Acoustic Tomography Array

The spatial resolution of a sonic anemometer is limited by the distance between its transducers, and for studies of small-scale turbulence and theories of turbulence, it is desirable to increase this spatial resolution. We here consider resolution improvements obtainable by treating the sonic anemometer as a small tomography array, with application of appropriate inverse algorithms for the reconstruction of temperature and velocity. A particular modification of the sonic anemometer is considered when the number of its transducers is doubled and the time-dependent stochastic inversion algorithm is used for reconstruction. Numerical simulations of the sonic anemometer and its suggested modification are implemented with the temperature and velocity fields modelled as discrete eddies moving through the sonic’s volume. The tomographic approach is shown to provide better reconstructions of the temperature and velocity fields, with spatial resolution increased by as much as a factor of ten. The spatial resolution depends on the inverse algorithm and also improves by increasing the number of transducers.     

A statistical power analysis of woody carbon flux from forest inventory data

At a national scale, the carbon (C) balance of numerous forest ecosystem C pools can be monitored using a stock change approach based on national forest inventory data. Given the potential influence of disturbance events and/or climate change processes, the statistical detection of changes in forest C stocks is paramount to maintaining the net sequestration status of these stocks. To inform the monitoring of forest C balances across large areas, a power analysis of a forest inventory of live/dead standing trees and downed dead wood C stocks (and components thereof) was performed in states of the Great Lakes region, U.S. Using data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the U.S. Forest Service, it was found that a decrease in downed wood C stocks (?1.87 Mg/ha) was nearly offset by an increase in standing C stocks (1.77 Mg/ha) across the study region over a 5-year period. Carbon stock change estimates for downed dead wood and standing pools were statistically different from zero (α?=?0.10), while the net change in total woody C (?0.10 Mg/ha) was not statistically different from zero. To obtain a statistical power to detect change of 0.80 (α?=?0.10), standing live C stocks must change by at least 0.7 %. Similarly, standing dead C stocks would need to change by 3.8 %; while downed dead C stocks require a change of 6.9 %. While the U.S.’s current forest inventory design and sample intensity may not be able to statistically detect slight changes (<1 %) in forest woody C stocks at sub-national scales, large disturbance events (>3 % stock change) would almost surely be detected. Understanding these relationships among change detection thresholds, sampling effort, and Type I (α) error rates allows analysts to evaluate the efficacy of forest inventory data for C pool change detection at various spatial scales and levels of risk for drawing erroneous conclusions.     

The Meteoritical Bulletin,No. 102

Meteoritical Bulletin 102 contains 3141 meteorites including 12 falls (Boumdeid (2003), Boumdeid (2011), Braunschweig, Chelyabinsk, Dongyang, Draveil, Heyetang, Indian Butte, Katol, Ladkee, Ouadangou, Xining), with 2611 ordinary chondrites, 264 HED achondrites, 124 carbonaceous chondrites, 30 ureilites, 20 Martian meteorites, 16 primitive achondrites, 16 Rumuruti chondrites, 15 mesosiderites, 12 iron meteorites, 10 lunar meteorites, 9 enstatite chondrites, 4 enstatite achondrites, 4 Pallasites, 4 ungrouped achondrites, and 2 angrites, and with 1708 from Antarctica, 956 from Africa, 294 from South America, 126 from Asia, 47 from North America, 6 from Europe (including Russia), and 4 from Oceania. Information about approved meteorites can be obtained from the Meteoritical Bulletin Database (MBD) available on line at http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meteor/ .     

Mineralogy,petrology, and distribution of meteorites at the Whitecourt crater,Alberta, Canada

The Whitecourt meteorite impact crater, Alberta, Canada is a rare example of a well‐preserved small impact structure, with which thousands of meteorite fragments are associated. As such, this crater represents a unique opportunity to investigate the effect of a low‐energy impact event on an impacting iron bolide. Excellent documentation of meteorite fragment locations and characteristics has generated a detailed distribution map of both shrapnel and regmaglypted meteorite types. The meteorites' distribution, and internal and external characteristics support a low‐altitude breakup of the impactor which caused atmospherically ablated (regmaglypted) meteorites to fall close to the crater and avoid impact‐related deformation. In contrast, shrapnel fragments sustained deformation at macro‐ and microscales resulting from the catastrophic disruption of the impactor. The impactor was significantly fragmented along pre‐existing planes of weakness, including kamacite lamellae and inclusions, resulting in a bias toward low‐mass (<100 g) fragments. Meteorite mineralogy was investigated and the accessory minerals were found to be dominated by sulfides and phosphides with rare carlsbergite, consistent with other low‐Ni IIIAB iron meteorites. Considerations of the total mass of meteoritic material recovered at the site relative to the probable fraction of the impactor that was preserved based on modeling suggests that the crater was formed by a higher velocity, lower mass impactor than previously inferred.     

A reference typology of low alkalinity lakes in the UK based on pre-acidification diatom assemblages from lake sediment cores

This paper has two aims: (1) to show for the first time how a natural typology can be established using palaeoecological methods; and (2) to show how it can be used in lake restoration studies with respect to the definition of recovery targets for acidified lakes. By defining the characteristic reference assemblages for low alkalinity site types rather than for a specific site it allows success to be measured more broadly, unconstrained by the specific composition of the pre-acidification flora. We analyse statistically the pre-acidification diatom assemblages of sediment cores from 121 low alkalinity lakes in the UK in order to assess whether a reference typology for such lakes can be defined on the basis of their diatom floras. We use samples dating to ~1850 AD to represent pre-acidification conditions. The results show that three main clusters can be identified, two dominated by benthic taxa (Clusters 1 and 3) and one dominated by planktonic taxa (Cluster 2). Cluster 1 is characterised by taxa such as Brachysira vitrea, Cymbella microcephala and Fragilaria spp., Cluster 2 by Cyclotella comensis, C. radiosa, Asterionella formosa, Aulacoseira subarctica and Achnanthes minutissima and Cluster 3 by Eunotia incisa, Frustulia rhomboides var. saxonica, Fragilaria virescens var. exigua, and Cymbella perpusilla. Although environmental data for 1850 AD are not available it is apparent from the contemporary distribution of the taxa in the different clusters that Cluster 2 represents the most alkaline pre-acidification conditions. Some sites in this cluster have been acidified, but some, especially the larger, deeper lakes have been enriched. Cluster 1 includes sites that contain diatoms with relatively high pH optima (pH 6.4–7.4) whereas Cluster 3 sites contain diatoms with the lowest pre-acidification pH conditions in the data-set. Sites in this cluster also have the lowest base cation concentrations at the present day and include the sites in the UK that have been most affected by acid deposition.